Commodity Analysis – Commodities Surge as Gold Hits Six-Week High, Silver Breaks Records. - 01/12/2025
Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Commodities open the week with a strong but cautious upward bias as precious metals surge on rising Fed rate-cut expectations, crude oil stabilizes amid geopolitical uncertainty, and natural gas extends its breakout above multi-week resistance. While bullish momentum remains dominant across major commodities, several markets display signs of overbought conditions or supply-driven hesitation, prompting traders to remain selective ahead of key U.S. data releases.
The broader commodity market is trading with a constructive tone supported by a softer U.S. Dollar, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and geopolitical risk flows. Gold and Silver continue to attract safe-haven interest amid heightened Russia–Ukraine tensions and declining U.S. yields. Crude oil edges higher despite persistent oversupply concerns, while natural gas maintains strong upside after breaking out of its consolidation phase. Traders now focus on high-impact U.S. PMI figures that could shape market sentiment for the rest of the week.
| Commodity | RSI | Stochastic | Trend Bias | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Trade Suggestion |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 65.17 | 84.36 | Bullish | S1: 4010.31 / S2: 3935.66 | R1: 4251.96 / R2: 4326.61 | Buy @ 4209.00, TP 4316.90, SL 4150.00 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 72.35 | 77.83 | Bullish–Overbought | S1: 54.21 / S2: 52.52 | R1: 57.40 / R2: 57.85 | Buy @ 55.59, TP 57.86, SL 54.43 |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | 51.25 | 49.69 | Bullish | S1: 57.33 / S2: 56.29 | R1: 60.69 / R2: 61.73 | Buy @ 59.33, TP 60.74, SL 58.71 |
| Natural Gas (NG) | 68.70 | 87.99 | Bullish–Overextended | S1: 3.89 / S2: 3.66 | R1: 4.66 / R2: 4.89 | Buy @ 4.68, TP 4.87, SL 4.58 |
Gold trades near a six-week high as expectations of a December Fed rate cut continue to pressure the U.S. Dollar, pushing demand toward safe-haven metals. Dovish comments from Fed policymakers lifted rate-cut probabilities and drove USD to a two-week low, strengthening Gold’s underlying bid. Geopolitical tensions from the Russia–Ukraine conflict add another layer of support. While momentum remains bullish, traders remain cautious ahead of today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI, which could trigger intraday volatility.
Silver extends its record-breaking rally above $57.50 as bullish sentiment accelerates following a CME/Comex outage and rising Fed rate-cut expectations. Price remains strongly above the 100-day EMA at $45.60, confirming a powerful structural uptrend. However, elevated RSI levels signal overbought conditions, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation. A pullback toward the mid-Bollinger band at $51.29 would still preserve the bullish trend, while deeper declines may retest the 100-day EMA.
Crude oil edges higher, gaining 0.64% as geopolitical concerns overshadow ongoing oversupply risks. Markets reacted to complications surrounding peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, raising doubts about a quick resolution or easing of sanctions on Russian crude. At the same time, OPEC+ reinstated an additional 137,000 bpd in December capacity, and non-OPEC supply remains robust. While the near-term tone is mildly bullish, broader sentiment remains cautious due to structural supply headwinds.
Natural gas strengthens above $4.79 after breaking a multi-week resistance zone, supported by a rising trendline and firm EMA alignment. The move continues a pattern of higher lows since mid-November, with bullish pressure remaining intact. RSI near 70 and upper wick rejections at $4.95 signal minor overbought conditions, but the trend remains constructive as long as price holds above $4.65. A clean break above $4.95 opens the door toward the next upside objective at $5.09.
1. Is Gold likely to continue rising this week?
Yes—Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tension support further upside, but US PMI data may cause short-term volatility.
2. Is Silver overheating at current levels?
Partially—trend remains bullish, but overbought signals suggest consolidation before another leg higher.
3. What is limiting Crude Oil’s upside despite geopolitical support?
Oversupply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers is capping gains, keeping the trend only moderately bullish.
4. Can Natural Gas reach above $5.00?
Yes—if price breaks $4.95 decisively, momentum could carry it toward $5.09, supported by strong EMA structure.
5. Which commodity has the strongest bullish setup right now?
Gold shows the cleanest bullish structure supported by fundamentals, technicals, and macro catalysts.
- Precious metals remain firmly bid on rising Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical risk.
- Gold stays bullish above $4,200 with strong trend support from multiple moving averages.
- Silver reaches new all-time highs but enters overbought territory, hinting at short-term cooling.
- Crude oil moves cautiously higher but remains weighed down by supply-side pressures.
- Natural gas maintains breakout structure, with higher lows supporting bullish continuation.
- Today’s U.S. manufacturing PMI releases will be decisive for intraday volatility across all commodities.
