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Technical Analysis
Chifbaw Technical analysis and trade recommendations
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[QUOTE="Chifbaw, post: 40436, member: 18366"] [B][SIZE="5"]Weekly analysis and trade recommendations:[/SIZE][/B] Posted on February 10, 2013 by Trade recommendations: Lowest risk: Short the USDJPY at 95.00, SL 96.00, targets 93.50, 91.25, 90, 87.00. Medium: Short the USDJPY at 93.30, SL 94.30, targets 91.25, 90.00, 87.00. Analysis: The yen has had a wonderful run during the last several weeks. Last week however, an indecision candlestick (perfect doji, see figure 2) has formed. This doji tells us that this sharp rise will take a pause for now. And we expect this pause to last at least till the end of the G20 summit in the beginning of March. A possible stealth intervention by the BOJ or its agents to slow the devaluation of the yen could be in the offing. This is needed for Japan to downplay the depreciation of its currency in front of the G20. As shown on the monthly chart below, the yen has rebounded at around 94 yens for a dollar, off the 61.8% retracement of the downtrend from the top at 124 and the bottom at 75.5. We do not believe that this rebound marks the end of the uptrend since the new Japanese government is very serious about weakening the yen. From our models perspective, taking the short side is strongly favored at least for the short term. We therefore recommend for the coming week to sell the USDJPY at the current levels (92.75) or above for at least a retest of 91.25. We would try to hold part of our shorts for a possible deeper correction towards 87 – 88. On a side note, the EURUSD is showing some signs of weakness and we expect it next week to visit levels below 1.33 (1.3240, 1.3170). This makes EURJPY possibly the best vehicle to profit from both moves. [IMG]http://www.chifbaw.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/usdjpy1.gif[/IMG] Figure 1. USDJPY Monthly chart [IMG]http://www.chifbaw.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/usdjpy3.gif[/IMG] Figure 2. USDJPY Weekly chart [IMG]http://www.chifbaw.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/usdjpy2.gif[/IMG] Figure 3. USDJPY 4H chart. [/QUOTE]
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