Chifbaw Technical analysis and trade recommendations

[Chifbaw]

Hello,

We would like to provide the readers of this forum our daily technical analysis and trade recommendations.


London open: analysis and trade signals October 31, 2012


Recommendation:

Best: Short the EURUSD 1.3080, SL 1.3115, targets 1.2950, 1.290 and below.
Very risky: Short the EURSUD in between 1.3012 (50% retrace) and 1.3020 (previous peak), SL 1.3035, targets 1.2950, 1.290 and below.
Very risky: Buy or Sell the breakout of the Asian session range (1.2955-1.2970) for 20-30 pips profit.

Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The dollar will tend to strengthen at least until the US elections, and possibly after it.
Analysis:
Yesterday, the market rebounded after another test of 1.288x. It went above the master trend line support and failed to break the 38.2% retrace and 200 MA on 4H chart at around 1.2985. As for the breakout that occured on Monday on low volume, the same can be said about this bullish rebound: it happened on low volume and therefore it should be considered with hightened caution. The technicals this morning are clearly bullish: rebound on resistance (trend line and horizontal), a clear bullish engulfing candle on a daily time frame, and a close above the minor downtrend resistance line (blue dotted line on graph) and a golden cross on the daily charts. However, the fundamental picture is bearish: Spain is still dragging its feet to request a bailout, and the last economic data has not been positive at all. Spanish bonds are moving very slowly higher. Today, the release of the Spanish government budget balance might have some effects on the markets, especially if it is strongly negative. Also, some talks about Greece being on the edge of new elections due to a failure of its ruling coalition is another bearish (very bearish) event waiting to unfold on the markets. The US markets return today from two days off, and might demonstrate bullishness purely to convince themselves that this storm is nothing. In summary, the technicals are bullish, the fundamentals are bearish, and we think this is a bull trap. This is a dangerous market to trade. The best trade here is to short the EURUSD if we get to 1.3080 today, but again there is little momentum in the market and this seems unlikely. As yesterday, since Asia has been consolidating, the breakout of the asian session range is still a possible play for some 20-30 pips gain.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signal November 2, 2012
Recommendation:

Short (Scalp) the EURUSD on rallies in between 1.3070-1.3080 for 10-20 pips profit.
Buy (Scalp) the EURUSD on sell-offs in 1.2830-1.2815 for 10-20 pips profit.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The dollar will tend to strengthen at least until the US elections, and possibly after it.
Analysis: The market remains undecided and volatility continues to contract in EURUSD. These last days the risks to the downside have been accumulating. Greece is starting to become instable again. Spain is showing off its pride. On the other hand, the results of the US elections next week might affect sufficiently sentiment to spark some market movement. Today NFP data might also create wide movements but most likely will only add to an already fuzzy picture (except if data is above 200k or below 50k). From a technical point of view, the EURUSD is stuck within an undecision wedge pattern, and seems likely to test today the bottom of the wedge at 1.2890. A very high risk approach would be to buy into such a sell off for some very short term profits, but we do not recommend this. We would patiently wait for the NFP data to provide us either a retest of the 200-DMA (~1.2830) for a buy entry or a retest of the trend line resistance from the tops in april 2011 and august 2011 for a short entry (~1.3070). Given the uncertainty in the air, we would not keep these positions over the week end.
http://www.chifbaw.com/en/wp-
content/uploads/2012/11/eurusd021112lo.gif
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[Chifbaw]

 

[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals November 5, 2012
Today recommendation:

Best: Buy EURUSD at 1.2740 (fibo 61.8%) with both short term (1.28) and long term profits (1.335) in mind provided the Greek parliament approves budget.
Medium: Short EURUSD on rallies at 1.289/1.2915 with SL 1.2955, target 1.2850, 1.2740.
Very Risky: Buy EURUSD at 1.2830 SL 1.2790, target 1.2870-1.29.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The dollar will tend to strengthen at least until the US elections, and possibly after it.
Analysis:

The risk off reaction of the markets to the positive NFP numbers on Friday signals that Romney is a much more desirable president than Obama for the markets. Also the relatively low level of involvment of the market participants suggests a likely volatility boost once the election is over. We therefore expect short term further sell off if Obama is elected and a rally if Romney becomes president. With that said, the market will probably stay quiet till Wednesday. EURUSD remains ambiguous since it did not close below the 200DMA. Despite the sell off of Friday, we expect a mild correction this morning towards 1.2870-1.29. However, further declines seem warranted. The main risk for EURUSD is the Greek parliament vote. A positive outcome would be mildly bullish, while a negative outcome would be extremely bearish. Therefore any trading today must done with this potentially very dangerous event in mind.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update November 5, 2012
This morning the market is neutral over the board and this is a rather bad sign since we had a key monthly economic release on Friday. USDJPY entry signal was perfect! Currently the USDJPY is cooling off, unclear if this is a trend reversal or temporary correction.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals November 6, 2012

Recommendations:

Buy EURUSD in between 1.2750/1.2735, SL below 1.2720 with targets 1.2770, 1.28, 1.2850.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The dollar will tend to strengthen at least until the US elections, and possibly after it.
Analysis:

Yesterday the market continued its downtrend in EURUSD and confirmed that the 200DMA has been broken. The market is nervous about Greece and the stability of its parliament. In parallel, the absence of a Spanish bailout request is increasing the likelihood of a Spanish downgrade by the rating agencies. If Spanish bonds are rated as junk, Spain and its banks would fall into turmoil (very bearish). But for now, the markets are only slowly starting to price this potentially catastrophic event. Spanish bonds went up yesterday, but remain within the safe area. A move above 6% (above the upper Bollinger band, see chart) would confirm that the sovereign crisis is back to the main stage and would enable a move in EURUSD as low as 1.24 and potentially below should other issues arise. The market is slightly bearish this morning but a rebound is imminent. Technically, the EURUSD is in a downward channel. Buying today moves towards 1.2750/1.2735 (the bottom of the channel, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) will provide a low risk trade since the market will probably return towards 1.2770/1.280.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update November 6, 2012

This morning, the EURAUD appears to be a possible opportunity on the long side. However, given the maintained interest rate on the Australian dollar and the rather bearish technical and fundamental outlook in EURUSD, it seems appropriate not to enter this trade.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals November 7, 2012

Recommendations:

Best: Sell EURUSD in between 1.2950/1.2960, SL above 1.2975 with targets 1.2920, 1.285, 1.2740, 1.25x.
Medium: Sell EURUSD in between 1.2905 / 1.2915 with a scalping mentality (10/20 pips profit, quickly move SL to 0 for a possible trend reversal).
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
Analysis:

Yesterday, as expected a rebound has occurred in EURUSD although not from the levels we were looking for. This morning the market is bearish on the US Dollar as a consequence of the re-election of Obama. We do not believe that this will last, and a risk-off in stocks will progressively materialize into USD strength. This morning EURUSD is bullish and has still enough energy to rally further up, to become a nice short opportunity for a downward continuation. First good entry point is the retest of the trend line support that held the EURUSD from falling several times before being broken on November 2nd (see violet dotted line). This trend line currently arrives around 1.2910 and represents an important resistance (“seller’s remorse”). Close to it, there is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the top at 1.3137 around 1.2905. This makes the area of 1.2905/1.2915 a perfect opportunity for scalping (10-20 pips correction) during the early part of the London session while also looking for a reversal. There is still another risk event today that is the Greek parliament vote. A positive outcome can propel the EURUSD further up. The trend line resistance from the previous tops (1.3137, 1.3020) around 1.2950/1.2960 will provide an excellent short entry if we reach it today. The 50% Fibonacci retrace is also located in this area at 1.2950.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update November 7, 2012

This morning, a possible opportunity is in USDCAD. The sentiment is overly bearish on this pair at the moment. Given that momentum and price action probabilities are still within the normal realm, we would only look for entry points in this pair on further moves down (for instance if we reach 0.9860 in the coming hour, a saturation/reversal of 10 pips would be very likely).

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals November 8, 2012

Recommendations:

Short the EURUSD at 1.2730 with SL 1.2750 target 1.2650 PROVIDED that volatility contracts (the market stays range bound 1.2740-1.2780 till 12:45 GMT) and a rate cut is announced.
Buy EURUSD in between 1.2630 and 1.260 with SL 1.2570, targets 1.2650, 1.2670, 1.2730.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The market will have a moderately bearish bias until further clarity emerges on the US Fiscal Cliff issue.
Analysis:

This morning the market has a bearish bias, continuing the risk-off started by the US election results. The ECB council meeting today is a key risk event and we expect the market to stay quiet (volatility contraction) until the ECB announces its rate decision. Yesterday’s bearish comments by Draghi suggest that a rate cut will be discussed. Given that the economic numbers have been mostly bad all across the Eurozone, given that Germany’s economy is now most likely entering a recession, given that the inflation rate in Germany (~2%) is moderate, and given that Germany is an export led economy, we believe that there are good chances for a rate cut (-0.25%) to be announced today. This rate cut is possibly already partially priced in. Our recommendation is to short the EURUSD on a volatility breakout if there is a rate cut indeed. Our target to the downside is 1.2650, thus breaking the down trend channel that we identified (see graph). Buying the EURUSD is also an option if the market gets overly bearish and moves closer to 1.260. Two key levels to watch are the 100-MA at 1.263 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2605. Our models also show that this area has strong probabilities of reversal or saturation of the price action if reached today. Keeping these long positions overnight might be a good idea since some of the EURUSD shorts will cover tomorrow. If the ECB would maintain its interest rate at 0.75% the upside move will remain limited and will not offer good short opportunities.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update November 8, 2012

This morning there is no real trade opportunity. The momentum and sentiment in NZDUSD is strong this morning, but this is justified by the dismal employment numbers. The EURUSD has a decent bearish momentum at the daily level, and this signals increased probabilities of saturation or reversal if the EURUSD would further fall (see classical technical analysis). EURAUD is in a similar position but the positive employment numbers in Australia published today inhibit looking for a long opportunity.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals November 26, 2012


Recommendations:

Short the EURUSD at 1.3015 with SL 1.3030 targets 1.2980, 1.2950, 1.290, provided no creditor haircut is announced today.
Buy the EURUSD at 1.2800, SL 1.2780, targets 1.2830, 1.2850, 1.2880 and possibly much higher.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The market will have a moderately bearish bias until further clarity emerges on the US Fiscal Cliff issue.
Analysis:

On Friday, an exceptional spike in the EURUSD occurred and allowed us to have nice short entry points, the lowest one being at 1.2950. Currently the EURUSD has corrected back to 1.295x from a high of 1.2989 and is bearish this morning. The elections in Catalonia have increased risks of a break-up of the Spanish national entity and represent a serious long term risk. The collapse on Friday of the EU budget talks adds a touch of bearishness. As we already mentioned, we expect to have a sell-off today (possibly overnight) in EURUSD, to go back below 1.2900. The now so much anticipated meeting of the Euro group to finalize a Greek deal should be the main driver of this sell-off: the positive side is already largely priced in (release to Greece of +40B$), however the negative side is being neglected. First, there is a risk that the decision is again postponed to December 3rd as some sources are already suggesting, which this time around should cause a move down. Second, if a deal is indeed announced, investors will most likely see the “holes in the cheese” rather the cheese itself. In our view, aside from a major haircut of the creditors, Greek debt long term sustainably is unlikely to be resolved. And a haircut seems very unlikely to be part of today’s deal. Given the complexity of this deal, market analysts will need time to assess if it has potential to fix the issue in the long term or if it is another quick patch to survive the elections. Therefore big players might wait a day or two before making their move whereas part of the market will take profits in a buy the rumor sell the fact classical approach. The only announcement that would justify a solid move up would be a haircut of the creditors.

The EURUSD is at critical crossroads. As shown on the weekly chart, we can see that we are now close to hit the major weekly trend line resistance at around 1.3015. A break of this resistance would open the way to visit 1.3480, and possibly even 1.40. Why did the EURUSD fall in the first place? The EURUSD fell because of serious concerns about the “reversibility” of the currency union and the ability of the euro group to cope with sovereign debt sustainability. Many constructive decisions have been made since the start of this bearish cycle, the most important ones being the ESM and the OMT, and their impact has been mitigated by the continuous bad economic data out of the euro area. In other words, there has been solid fundamental evolution for a relief rally to continue in EURUSD and break this barrier now that there are signs of bottoming in the economic data. The dollar side of the equation remains clearly weak since the fed is highly adamant on continuous dollar devaluation. Therefore, the break out could occur this week on the back of this Greek deal, even if the announced measures are only helping for a few quarters. We should also note that EURJPY has broken a similar long term down trend.

From a short term trading point of view, we would look for a short entry with a tight stop loss should we get today close to 1.3015 and we look to buy the sell-off if it reaches today the levels of 1.2800 (200-DMA). If you have short positions at 1.2950, tighten your stop loss as soon as we go below 1.2940. From a long term trading point of view, we would try to hold our longs for a break of the 1.30 barrier and then move our SL just below 1.30.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update November 26, 2012

Our recommendation on Friday to short AUDJPY above 85.90 for a return to this level has worked and we would now tighten our SL while expecting further downside. This morning, the EURJPY is showing signs of potential momentum weakness on a daily level, but we don’t recommend shorting because of the major trend line resistance that has been broken to the upside in this pair.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals
November 27, 2012

Recommendations:

Buy the EURUSD at 1.2875, SL 1.2860, targets 1.2890, 1.2915, 1.2960, 1.30, 1.318, 1.335, 1.3480.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The market will have a moderately bearish bias until further clarity emerges on the US Fiscal Cliff issue.
Analysis:

The EURUSD failed to break the 1.30 barrier and has fallen back to 1.2980 this morning. The European politicians inflated market expectations about a deal, and even though a deal was made, its content is fuzzy and has indeed many holes. The fact that the market did not fall even further than 1.2980 (sell the fact) suggests that we are still in an uptrend. The market is difficult to read this morning. Entering long or short at these levels is too risky in our view. Should the market start a correction today, we would look for a long entry at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace around 1.2875. As we have explained yesterday, the risks are still to the upside in EURUSD and any further positive economic news will give momentum to break the 1.30 barrier. The German unemployment rate on Thursday could be a possible driver of a retest of 1.30.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update
November 27, 2012

This morning many currency pairs are showing potential reversal or saturation at a daily level. Even though a correction in EURUSD would make sense, we would not look to short the euro pairs given that EURUSD is so close to break a historical trend line resistance and has had this night a bullish fundamental development. The AUD pairs are more interesting, and we would look to enter short on these pairs, the AUDJPY being more risky.

Trade recommendations:

Short AUDUSD at 1.0520, SL 1.0535, targets 1.05, 1.048, 1.045.
Short AUDJPY at 86.90, SL 87.05, targets 86.70, 86.25, 85.90.
Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation in the coming 2 hours):

- EURUSD: 1.3050-1.3065 on the upside, 1.2890-1.2905 on the downside.
- AUDUSD: 1.0525-1.0540 on the upside, 1.039o-1.0405 on the downside.
- GBPUSD: 1.6115-1.6130 on the upside, 1.5935-1.5950 on the downside.
- USDJPY: 82.85-83.00 on the upside, 81.50-81.65 on the downside.
- EURJPY: 107.70-107.85 on the upside, 105.75-105.90 on the downside.
- USDCAD: 0.9990-1.0005 on the upside, 0.9845-0.9860 on the downside.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals
November 28, 2012

Recommendations:

Long term trade: Buy the EURUSD in between 1.28 and 1.29, SL 1.2770, targets 1.30, 1.318, 1.335, 1.348.
Buy the EURUSD in between 1.2865-1.2875, SL 1.2845, targets 1.2885, 1.29, 1.2930, 1.2960, 1.30, 1.318, 1.335, 1.3480.

Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The market will have a moderately bearish bias until further clarity emerges on the US Fiscal Cliff issue.

Analysis:

The EURUSD fell yesterday from its highs on a reversal of momentum. Our initial analysis turned to be correct (sell off after the Greek deal) but for now, we prefer to focus on the bigger picture which is a likely breakout of the 1.30 barrier in the coming days/weeks. As we suggested earlier, the fundamental situation has changed towards the upside, the main risk factor resides in the economic news. One of the key indicators of economic activity is the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). When it is below 50 it means a recession is coming or ongoing, when it is above 50, it means the economy is growing. PMIs are a leading indicator, that is they often reflect current situation whereas for instance unemployment numbers are a lagging indicator and reflect past economic data. The chart below that shows European manufacturing and services PMIs. The first important remark we will make is that the services PMI is always lagging the manufacturing PMI. The second important point here is that the bottom in the manufacturing PMI catches well bottoms in economic activity. Nonetheless, the main idea here is that the Europeans manufacturing PMIs are suggesting a bottom has been hit in the European recession and we would expect economic news flow to have a higher probability of beating expectation in the coming months. Superposing the PMI chart to the EURUSD will not give a good correlation because of the sovereign component of the EURUSD weakness which is not reflected at all in the PMIs (though the bottom in Q1 2009, top in Q1 2011 and bottom in the summer of 2012 correlated with EURUSD charts). Even if our assumption is correct, finding optimal ways to enter long is a totally different story. In addition, there is the USD side of the equation that can also change. A fiscal cliff driven strengthening in the dollar (risk-off) is the main risk. So far, the market is very confident that such crisis won’t happen.

From the technical point of view, a logical play would be to use the trend line support from the bottom at 1.2660 and 1.2690 as our stop loss, and to build a long position above this trend line for a return of the EURUSD to the range 1.30-1.35. Buying in between 1.28 and 1.29 should offer a reasonable risk reward. Finally, from an intraday trading point of view, as mentioned yesterday, we expect further downside today and we would buy the EURUSD on a test of the 61.8% retrace at 1.2875 for at least a short term rebound of 20-30 pips and possibly much more.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update
November 28, 2012

This morning all probabilities are back to their more neutral area and there are no clear opportunities. Our Propareos area of 1.29-1.2920 yesterday was spot on.

Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation in the coming 2 hours):

- EURUSD: 1.2985-1.3000 on the upside, 1.2865-1.2880 on the downside.
- AUDUSD: 1.0495-1.0510 on the upside, 1.0395-1.0410 on the downside.
- GBPUSD: 1.6070-1.6085 on the upside, 1.5960-1.5975 on the downside (getting close)
- USDJPY: 82.50-82.65 on the upside, 81.35-81.50 on the downside.
- EURJPY: 106.85-107.00 on the upside, 105.15-105.35 on the downside.
- USDCAD: 0.9980-0.9995 on the upside, 0.9880-0.9895 on the downside.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade signals
November 29, 2012

Recommendations:

Long term trade: Buy the EURUSD in between 1.28 and 1.29, SL 1.2770, targets 1.30, 1.318, 1.335, 1.348.
Paradigms:

The EURUSD will not make new highs (higher than 1.317) until Spain requests a bailout and the OMT is activated.
The market will have a moderately bearish bias until further clarity emerges on the US Fiscal Cliff issue.
Analysis:

Yesterday, the EURUSD went below 1.29 and offered us some long entry points. After a nice rebound, we were unable to break the 1.2960 barrier. The price action suggests that the bulls are getting exhausted in the short term and that we will end the week lower than the current levels (towards 1.2850-1.2900). We have to mention that volumes have been higher than usual over the last few days and a return to more moderate volumes is also to be expected today/tomorrow with a probable decrease in volatility. Today, either we have a break of the 1.2960 barrier to go revisit 1.2980 before going down back to 1.2950 or we might start crumbling from the current levels. We therefore recommend booking some profits at these levels or higher and moving your SL to 1.29 on your remaining longs, since we expect to have better long entry opportunities in the near future. A very risky trade would be to short the EURUSD on further advances up but we don’t recommend it. As an important side remark, the yield on the 10Y Spanish bonds is now at 5.3%, off the highs at 5.9% and this is supportive for the bullish view of buying any dips below 1.29 in EURUSD.

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[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update
November 29, 2012
Yesterday prices came very close to our 90% Propareos area in EURUSD and GBPUSD, but saturation transformed into reversal before we could reach our entry levels. This morning momentum is neutral. Sentiment is reaching high levels in AUDJPY and USDJPY at a weekly level, and this suggests a possible push next week since momentum is still neutral. EURUSD is still in the process of normalizing after its big run.

Recommendations:

No trade recommendation.
Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation in the coming 2 hours):

- EURUSD: 1.2985-1.3000 on the upside, 1.2870-1.2885 on the downside.
- AUDUSD: 1.0500-1.0515 on the upside, 1.0400-1.0415 on the downside.
- GBPUSD: 1.6055-1.6070 on the upside, 1.5950-1.5965 on the downside.
- USDJPY: 82.50-82.65 on the upside, 81.30-81.45 on the downside.
- EURJPY: 107.30-107.45 on the upside, 104.80-104.95 on the downside.
- USDCAD: 0.9970-09985 on the upside, 0.9880-0.9895 on the downside.

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[Chifbaw]

London open: analysis and trade sig
November 30, 2012

Medium: Buy the EURUSD at 1.2950/1.2960, SL. 1.2935, targets 1.30, 1.3040, 1.3080, 1.3170, 1.335, 1.348
Risky: Buy the EURUSD at 1.3020, SL 1.2990, targets 1.3040, 1.3080, 1.3170, 1.335, 1.348.
Risky: Short the EURUSD in between 1.3085 and 1.3095, SL 1.3105, targets 1.3070, 1.3050.
Paradigms:

The market will have a moderately bearish bias until further clarity emerges on the US Fiscal Cliff issue.
Analysis:

This morning there are many signs that we are in a paradigm shift. One of our main working paradigms was that the EURUSD would not breach 1.318 until Spain requests a bailout. However, the recent action in the bond markets is suggesting that confidence in Spain has returned. Yields have fallen to 5.3% which is an important resistance level and we expect this level to be breached in the coming hours/days. In parallel, Italian 10 year yields have fallen even more dramatically: they broke their horizontal resistance at ~4.7% and are now at 4.5%. All of this suggests that the commitments by the European leadership are starting to bear fruit in the bond markets, and this is a very bullish element for the Euro. Even though it is a bit premature (fall below 5.3% needed to confirm), we remove our paradigm and we consider that the EURUSD can now breach 1.318.

Yesterday after the expected fall to 1.2950 on concerns about the fiscal cliff, the EURUSD has found very solid support. During the Asian session, the EURUSD has found additional momentum from the Asian crosses (EURJPY, EURAUD) and is now very bullish. As shown on the chart below, a nice reverse head and shoulder pattern has formed (big head, small shoulders or the “nerd”), and this morning the market is ready to run higher. Today there are several trade opportunities. One can enter long at these levels and have a tight stop loss but this is dangerous even though it should work. A better trade would be to wait for a correction towards 1.2950-1.2960 to enter long again. It seems very unlikely that we would fall back below 1.29 as we thought yesterday, even a fall back to 1.2960 now seems rather unlikely. On the other side, a risky trade but technically very justified would be to try to short the EURUSD if it reaches the trend line resistance from the recent tops (1.3170 & 1.3139) at around 1.3090. This short idea is especially valid if 1.3090 is reached during the first hours of the London session and requires to move quickly your SL to breakeven. One can also trade the breakout by entering long around 1.3020.

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