Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

momo3HC

Active Trader
Feb 16, 2019
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2020-01-19 21_21_26-Window.png
Hi all and Happy New Year. Wishing you an awesome and profitable one to be. As first BTC analysis for the year it will be more really long term so let`s get to the point.

It was a good price movement lately and I really believe that the $6.4K level was the bottom.

Everything which i`ll say from here is situated on historical PA and a bit of math. From now i`m expecting the 2nd small parabolic move which must take place till the next summer may be, followed by descending before the 3rd big parabolic move which must take us to the next halving cycle ATH. That`s the first PA, which I can call it “1,2,3 steps”, move made by BTC in previous halving cycles. The second one is the bigger accumulation/parabolic periods in BTC`s PA history. Every time they`re getting 1.4 times longer than previous one.

So judging by this two PA I can assume that the next BTC All Time High will be… in June 2022 and the price will be somewhere around… $170K. That`s insane!!!

I just want to say 3 more things:

  • This is just a prognosis. It`s 50:50. It can become real or no but at this point that`s how i`m seeing the BTC PA future and that`s only my (or may be not only my) opinion.
  • I`m not talking about May`s halving and the price then cuz it`s coming very soon and i`m a really long term HODLer.
  • Starting from the previous two points that`s a really long term analysis. I`ll be more specific in short or mid-term period into next week analysis.
 
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momo3HC

Active Trader
Feb 16, 2019
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BTC 02022020.jpg
Hi all. The first month for 2020 already passed and it was hell of a good month for BTC. Hope that`s just a preview for the whole year. Last time i`ve presented to you a really long term analysis so let`s get back to shorter ones.

Beside of all financial markets, today was a really hot day for the winter season (around 20 degrees) and that`s why i`ve been on a pleasant walk with my wife and friends. That`s why i`m kind of tired now and i`ll be really short but punctual in my analysis.

The graph is not really changed except the new support and resistance levels and 2 newly added indicators.

Two support levels:

  • $8500 - previous resistance and 50% fibo level
  • $7800 - previous resistance level
Resistance level: $9800 - previous resistance and 38.2% fibo level

What about the newly added indicators? Here they are:

  • Pivot point. A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
  • The pivot point is the basis for the indicator, but it also includes other support and resistance levels that are projected based on the pivot point calculation. All these levels help traders see where the price could experience support or resistance. Similarly, if the price moves through these levels it lets the trader know the price is trending in that direction.
  • Last weeks the price was consistently above PP levels. As you`ll see we`ll close this week above it again (Weekly pivot point (week 5 `20)). I`m calculating the next week PP level on a $9440 closing price. It can change a bit cuz this week candle is now yet closed but if the closing price is around $9440 it will be similar.
  • Parabolic SAR. I`ll not go in deep into explanation what is PSAR but if you want to learn more about it here`s a good article about it - https://www.forex.academy/profitable-trading-computerized-studies-iii-psar/ . The most important here is that PSAR is turned back to bullish after the price top back in July last year. If that`s not a strong bullish signal I don`t know what can be.
That`s for now from me guys. Wishing you a wonderful and prosper week and month.
 
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pezza55

Trader
Dec 2, 2019
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View attachment 15331
Hi all. The first month for 2020 already passed and it was hell of a good month for BTC. Hope that`s just a preview for the whole year. Last time i`ve presented to you a really long term analysis so let`s get back to shorter ones.

Beside of all financial markets, today was a really hot day for the winter season (around 20 degrees) and that`s why i`ve been on a pleasant walk with my wife and friends. That`s why i`m kind of tired now and i`ll be really short but punctual in my analysis.

The graph is not really changed except the new support and resistance levels and 2 newly added indicators.

Two support levels:

  • $8500 - previous resistance and 50% fibo level
  • $7800 - previous resistance level
Resistance level: $9800 - previous resistance and 38.2% fibo level

What about the newly added indicators? Here they are:

  • Pivot point. A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
  • The pivot point is the basis for the indicator, but it also includes other support and resistance levels that are projected based on the pivot point calculation. All these levels help traders see where the price could experience support or resistance. Similarly, if the price moves through these levels it lets the trader know the price is trending in that direction.
  • Last weeks the price was consistently above PP levels. As you`ll see we`ll close this week above it again (Weekly pivot point (week 5 `20)). I`m calculating the next week PP level on a $9440 closing price. It can change a bit cuz this week candle is now yet closed but if the closing price is around $9440 it will be similar.
  • Parabolic SAR. I`ll not go in deep into explanation what is PSAR but if you want to learn more about it here`s a good article about it - https://www.forex.academy/profitable-trading-computerized-studies-iii-psar/ . The most important here is that PSAR is turned back to bullish after the price top back in July last year. If that`s not a strong bullish signal I don`t know what can be.
That`s for now from me guys. Wishing you a wonderful and prosper week and month.
Keeps rejecting the 10000 mark and will be good when it breaks through and holds for the week we will then see the start of the big moves
 

K_Robdog

Trader
Nov 2, 2019
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It's been holding nicely over $10k today. I think we will see a couple of bounces off the 10k mark over the next couple of days, then it'll shoot up.
 

momo3HC

Active Trader
Feb 16, 2019
338
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BTC 23022020.jpgIMG_2544.JPG
Hi all. This week i`m switching to 1D chart cuz there are more interesting things on it but before that let`s check the last analysis main points.
  • Pivot point for this week was 10003.96. We will close this week almost 100% probably under it, which means the next one could be negative.
  • Parabolic SAR is not changed and it`s still bullish.
Now let`s move to the actual analysis with the first chart.

Two support levels:
  • $9500 - previous resistance and support level
  • $9100-9000 - previous resistance and support level and almost 61.8 fibo level
Resistance level: $10500 - previous resistance and 100% fibo level

There`s two very bullish indicators into this chart too:
  • Golden cross happened between 50 and 200 MA`s. Very bullish signal in long term.
  • Supper guppy indicator. Very good indicator which seems to be turned bullish almost a month ago but i`m checking it now. Check it in tradingview chart if you`re interested.
2nd chart:

Thank`s to Glassnode we can check Bitcoin`s Reverse Risk (BRR) chart combined with it`s price.

In short we can conclude that in every time when BRR bottomed out from the green zone we`re facing in front of the bull run start to the next ATH or at least local high (like the 14K top from the last summer).

That`s for now from me guys. Wishing you a wonderful and prosper week. And remember that all about BTC is a long term game and almost every single indicator now is pointing north, no matter of $500, $1000 or even more dips for a day or week.
 

sebking1986

Trader
Nov 28, 2019
33
11
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Think we will be looking at $15k plus at some point this year. Rather it gradually works up towards it rather than the run we saw in 2017. That was so quick you just could tell it would correct.
 
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momo3HC

Active Trader
Feb 16, 2019
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Think we will be looking at $15k plus at some point this year. Rather it gradually works up towards it rather than the run we saw in 2017. That was so quick you just could tell it would correct.
I`m even seeing an ATH at the end of this year summer or early in the autumn.
 

momo3HC

Active Trader
Feb 16, 2019
338
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BTC 20032020.jpg
Hi all. Let me present you my latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis.

First of all let`s check what caused this huge dump.

The main reason must be the COVID19 world threat and yes if you think the same you`re definitely right. But… and this is quite big “BUT”, there`s also some other rumors at which I want to drew attention too.

The first one is Whales. Yes they`re greed. Yes they`re powerful. And yes, they have all the resources to manipulate the market for the simple target… to accumulate more coins at the lowest price possible. In evidence of this (or kind of evidence) I can point the number of BTC whales during this dump – more than 1940.

The second rumor which i`ve heard lately and it`s VERY interesting is that this dump was caused by the miners, big miners and they`ve used COVID19 as a look-alike trigger. In front of the halvening, big miners wanted to destruct small ones with sell off and that must be started from 15th of February. As you must know after the halving this May:

  • The production and the profitability of/from BTC will be cut in half.
  • The expenses to mine will stay the same or even bigger if there`s inflation.
  • The miners will be the same number as now.
And from 1,2 and 3 is popping a problem – competition.

How the big miners can destruct the competition of small ones and get them out of business before the halvening? Easy. With big sell offs, pushing the price down and down till the small ones become unprofitable and capitulate.

Like I said this is just a rumor but it`s very interesting one and may be the latest hashrate is kind of evidence for this theory (about 30% decrease from the latest ATH).

Now let`s get to the technicals.

  • Pivot point for this week is $5794.92 Weekly candle close above it – GOOD. Weekly candle close below it – bad.
  • 200 Weekly SMA – price is back above it – GOOD.
  • Resistances:
  • 1st $6400 (by previous PA)
  • 2nd $7300 (by 61.8 fibo level and previous PA)
  • 3rd $7800 (by previous PA)
  • 4th $8500 (by 50% fibo level and previous PA)
  • Supports:
  • 1st $5300 (by 78.6 fibo level and previous PA)
  • 2nd $4100 (by previous PA)
  • And last but not least check the purple marks. In short, every time when we see such high volume and such highs or lows in price, the trend reversed afterwards.
P.S. Last thing which i`ve checked is Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It shows extreme fear and I have a moto: “Buy the fear and sell the greed.”

That is my vision for the latest circumstances and the future possibilities about Bitcoin.