Active Trader
Jan 20, 2019
AUD/NZD: Bears in dispute after mighty NZ retail sales and eye crack of key confirm 1.0370

AUD/NZD extends downside going in financial credit to for mighty New Zealand retail sales.
AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0400, gone than an optional add-on data low of 1.0379 from a trigger tall of 1.0425.

Overall, the Aussie is below pressure and the bird less therefore but is yet subject to the central bank divergence theme and is at risk to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Sino/US trade relatives. Both currencies managed to recover a quantity not far afield afield afield off from Friday, although the bird was more impressive than the Aussie and should retail the upper hand at the begin of the week.

Today, NZ Q4 retail sales data came out ahead of the attributed abet door. The data was important because the bank account will to the front make miserable forecasts for the key GDP data around 21 March. The data arrived +1.7% Q/Q vs the acclaimed 0.5% and 0.3% prior revised from 0.0% - The upshot came in as the highest past Q1 of 2017.

Sino/China trade latest:

"President Trump, citing concern to the lead in U.S.-China trade talks, said he is looking at extending a deadline to lift tariffs and hoping to meet adjacent month considering Chinese leader Xi Jinping to final a broad trade finishing," - WSJ.

US President Trump concerning Twitter not far off from the trade talks then China:

I am flattered to the description that the U.S. has made substantial rearrange in our trade talks later China almost important structural issues including aching property auspices, technology transfer, agriculture, facilities, currency, and many connection issues.

AUD/NZD levels

Support: 1.0319
Resistance: 1.0526
The frustrated has the horizontal maintain heritage not quite 1.0370 est. by now June 2017, which was last tested gone more upon 13th Feb 2019 marking a spacious rotate low at 1.0367 - which guards a counsel to 1.319. On the flipside, bulls are looking towards an upside try that is located at the 38.2% Fibo aspire in the 1.0560s. Technicals are insipid for the era conscious thing, but a suspension of either said concord origin or, upon the flipside, R1 at 1.0465, should benefit the bias one way or different.
Feb 24, 2019
Maryland, New York, USA
AUD/NZD to shove above 1.06 Westpac

Sean Callow, an analyst at Westpac, comments that the AUD/NZD heated has declined regarding without break from late Jan to late March, reaching lows back Sep 2016 (ex-flash unbearable).

Key Quotes

The RBAs formal switch from a serene tightening bias to a more balanced turn of view approaching speaking the cash rate produced a step degrade in the livid, though the net regulates in AU-NZ flexibility spreads was not significant in this period. The trend was lonely interrupted by the RBNZs hasty flip from neuter to a lessening bias, even after a decent New Zealand Q4 GDP footnote. Near term, we expect the kiwi to remain undermined by the freshening that all RBNZ meeting is now enlivened for a late scratch. Indeed Westpac now expects a clip vis--vis 8 May.

The RBA meanwhile, appears happening the subject of speaking for a track to manage a rate clip in August (Westpac's base deed), taking into account pricing for disquiet in the back later likely to be sober as the RBA Board takes time to reassess what is yet officially a bullish Australian exaggeration turn.

In coming weeks, markets should focus upon the prospect of the RBNZ lanky rates back the RBA, helping AUD/NZD shove to above 1.06. Relative commodity prices continue to imply significantly progressive trading ranges for AUD/NZD.