Analysts divided over gold


Master Trader
Jun 20, 2016
Analysts are divided on the direction of the gold price this year with some saying there is plenty of life left in the current rally while others believe that a fall of up to $300 is a real possibility.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs are one of the camps who believe the precious metal has more room to travel higher on the back of growing interest from Central Banks and expectations that the US Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of their current rate hiking cycle

"Going forward gold will be supported primarily by growing demand for defensive assets. The same is also true of central bank buying, with rising geopolitical tensions incentivizing more central banks to re-enter the gold market," said Jeffrey Currie from Goldman Sachs

"The last few weeks have seen a sharp deterioration in risk sentiment following soft macroeconomic data in December and renewed concerns about the future direction of growth, particularly the risk of U.S. growth catching down towards weaker economies," he added.

One of the few analysts who think gold will tumble is vice chairman of Blackstone Private Wealth Solutions vice Byron Wien as investors realize the economy is not as in bad shape as many thing and they begin offloading gold due to its inability to generate any yield.

“That’s a real surprise of 2019, gold will drop to $1,000. My thinking is that gold has been in a consolidation period for about four years. Everybody thinks if it breaks out of its trading range, it is going higher. We think it’s going lower. And why not? A lot of people don’t think gold is going anywhere and almost nobody thinks it’s going down.” Mr Wein said

“If the market is doing well, if interest rates are around 3%, there’s a real cost to holding gold. Not only does it not have any yield. But, you have to pay for storage and insurance. Investors are going to realize that gold is an unattractive asset and the price will drop,” he added.