AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

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AceTraderFx Mar 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR) & data to be released today


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
22 Mar 2016
03:10GMT

EUR/USD -..... Euro stages a minor bounce in Asian morning after initial brief break of o/n New York low of 1.1234 to 1.1229/30 at Asian open. Although short-term specs sold euro on stop-hunting, lack of follow-through selling quickly lifted the pair, suggesting range trading with near term upside bias is in store.

Today is PMI day in Europe, France will release mfg & services PMIs at 08:00GMT, then followed by Germany at 08:30GMT and EZ PMIs will come in at 09:00GMT. Pay particular to release of important German Ifo business confidence index at 08:30GMT, street forecast for March is 105.8 vs previous reading of 105.7.

Offers are tipped at 1.1275/85 and more above with stops above 1.1300.
Bids are reported at 1.1230-20 and more below with fairly stops stops building up below 1.1200.

Data to be released on Tuesday:

Australia house price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, all industry activity index, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, Germany business climate, current assessment, expectations, ZEW economic sentiment, current situation, U.K. CPI, retail price index, producer price index, DCLG house price index, public sector net borrowing, Eurozone ZEW current situation, U.S. Redbook, housing price index and Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
 

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AceTraderFx Mar 23: Fed Reserve Bank Harker is optimistic that wage pressures will influence U.S. inflation measures

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Mar 2016
00:12GMT

USD/MARJORS - President of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker in a meeting, telling the reporters that he is "pretty optimistic" that wage pressures will influence broader U.S. inflation measures, and that Fed should consider another rate hike if economy continues on path with all fomc meetings in play for future rate rise.
He will back more rate hikes than median Fed 'dots' forecast, the supported holding rates steady last week in part due to recent market volatility.
He added that the core inflation moving is in the right direction, and with the oil appears to have stabilized or bottomed, and that they need to continue to "get on with" rate hikes, economy resilient.

Further, he thinks that there is a strong case to continue to raise rates and a need to tighten moves that hang on economic conditions. They would prefer to hike rates more than twice this year, and it's ok to overshoot 2 pct inflation target.
With the monetary policy limited, that cannot boost U.S. growth potential, so a needed debate over potential growth at heart of debate within fomc.
He expects subdued growth over the next 2-3 years, and can sees possible 'slow-growth trajectory for some time to come'.
He also suggests tax, education measures that would boost long-term growth prospects.
More of his comments to follow.
 

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USD dipped low after releasing BoJ minutes before staging a strong rebound

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
24 Mar 2016
01:14GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr briefly dipped to intra-day low of 112.29/30 after the release of BoJ minutes before staging a strong rebound. Bank of Japan policymakers engaged in heated debate on the pros and cons of their decision in January to adopt negative interest rates, with one even saying it was preferable to roll it back, a summary of their opinions at the March 14-15 rate review showed today.
Quote: "It's preferable to roll back the negative rate policy. But abandoning it immediately after introducing it would cause market confusion and risk eroding trust in the BOJ. With the effects (of the policy) still not clear, we should maintain the policy".
Just published summary of BoJ meeting on March 14-15:
The balance risks to Japan, and the overseas economies remain tilted to downside and while markets remain unstable at the start of year that has no disruption in Japan's economy.
Their exports, production are weak so this may affect capex, together with weak wage growth, data on inflation expectations also falling; chances of consumer inflation excluding volatile food, energy remaining above 1 pct has diminished.

Negative rate policy is exerting intended effects and that is preferable than to abandon it, but rolling it back now would erode confidence in BoJ policy so should maintain it for time being. But the Negative rate policy has not spurred portfolio rebalancing effect as much as expected, and with all the drawbacks of negative rates, such as giving market the impression that BoJ is reaching limits to Japanese Government Bond buying, are materialising.
Again, negative rate policy has strengthened deflationary mindset by causing public anxiety on outlook, now offering exemptions to negative rate policy could heighten market volatility.
Communication with markets has become very difficult as markets beginning to price in further BoJ action and they are aiming for 'surprise' effect which has heightened uncertainty on what could trigger BoJ action, heightened market instability.

MOF rep will closely be watching the markets, coordinating with global community and the communique of Feb G20 finance leaders' meeting will also include on the factors which Japan considered important.
 

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AceTraderFx Mar 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Mar 2016
01:16GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr moves sideways in quiet Asian trading after clocking up 7 days of consecutive gains on Monday. Despite climbing to a fresh 1-week high of 113.69 in holiday-thinned Asian morning yesterday, price briefly dropped to 113.15 in New York morning on soft U.S. PCE data as the lower-than-expected reading quickly led U.S. economists cut their forecast on U.S. Q1 GDP growth.

Looks like range trading below said yesterday's temporary top would continue in Asian morning, however, as dlr is still in trending mode, buying the pair on dips is still the favoured strategy.
Bids are noted at 113.25-15 and more below with stops touted below 112.90, offers are tipped at 113.65/75 and more above with stop reported Book value-bv 114.00.
 

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AceTraderFx Mar 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Mar 2016
02:23GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro edges lower in Asian morning after yesterday's intra-day rally following release of soft U.S. inflation data, price jumped above 1.1176 res immediately after the data, tripping stops above there and euro then climbed to 1.1220 before paring intra-day gain on upbeat U.S. pending home sales report.

Current softness suggests consolidation below said Monday's 1.1220 top would be seen, however, as yesterday's rally signals recent decline has made a temporary low last week at 1.1144 (Thursday), buying interest near 1.1176 is expected to contain weakness and bring another rebound later today.

Offers are tipped at 1.1210/20 with stops above there, more selling interest is reported at 1.1240/50.
Bids are noted at 1.1180-70 and more below with stops touted below 1.1140.

The only economic data coming from Europe today is Italy's business and consumer confidence indices, so all eyes are on U.S. data n Fed Chair Yellen's speech later today.

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AceTraderFx Mar 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Mar 201601:14GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback stabilized near New York close after early intra-day selloff from a high of 113.80 (Europe) to as low as 112.61 on dovish remarks from Fed's chair Yellen, price weakened again in Tokyo morning on Wednesday and fell to 112.40.

Intra-day weakness in Asia suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen but sharp decline is not likely ahead of the release of ADP employment data at 12:15GMT.
In addition, investors should pay close attention to the speech from Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans who recently said he expects two rate hikes this year, given his forecast for 2 percent to 2.5 percent economic growth and for unemployment to fall further to 4.75 percent by the end of the year.

At present, offers are reported at 112.70-80 and mores at 112.90-00 with mixtures of offers and stops in the region of 113.00-113.20.
On the downside, bids from various accounts are noted at 112.30-20 and then 112.10-00 with stops below there.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

New Zealand building permits, Japan industrial production, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, KOF indicator, France consumer spending, Eurozone business climate, economic sentiment, services sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer confidence, consumer inflation expectation, selling price expectation, Germany CPI, Harmonised index of consumer prices, U.S. MBA mortgage application and ADP employment change.
 

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AceTraderFx Mar 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Mar 2016
02:25GMT

EUR/USD - ...... The single currency rebounded after meeting renewed buying interest at 1.1169 in Europe on Tuesday and then later rallied to as high as 1.1303 in New York afternoon as Fed's chair Janet Yellen dragged down the U.S. dollar by strongly emphasizing that the Federal Reserve should proceed cautiously in normalizing its current monetary policy cycle.
Later, euro eased to 1.1283 before moving sideways.

Today, investors should pay attention to the release of a slew of economic reports from euro zone in European session, these include business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, service sentiment, and consumer confidence.
In addition, Germany will release its inflation data for March at 12:00GMT.

At the moment, bids are noted at 1.1270-60 and then in the region of 1.1250-1.1230 with stops below 1.1220.
On the upside, offers are reported at 1.1310-20 and more around 1.1330 with stops just above 1.1340.
 

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AceTraderFx Mar 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
31 Mar 2016
00:30GMT

A survey by Reuters showed on Thursday that British consumers remain their least confident in more than a year as they worry about the country's European Union referendum and the euro zone's unresolved economic problems.
Market research firm GfK said its overall consumer sentiment indicator stood at zero in March, unchanged from February and its joint lowest level since December 2014. Overall the survey showed consumers were less willing to spend on big-ticket items than in February.

Britain's consumers have been the key driver of the country's economic recovery over the past three years.
Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK, said that despite good economic headlines about low inflation, interest rates and prices in the shops, concerns about Brexit and the ongoing euro zone crisis appear to be hitting home.
Optimism among consumers about the economy over the next 12 months was 18 points lower than in March 2015 at -12.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has warned repeatedly that the country faces a "dangerous mixture" of risks from the world economy.
Economists say the government's decision to hold the EU referendum is another, home-grown, risk which is likely to hurt confidence in the run-up to the vote on June 23.
If voters decide to leave the bloc, Britain will probably suffer a hit to growth, at least in the short term, most economists say.
 

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AceTraderFx Mar 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Mar 2016
02:19GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Although dlr retreated after yesterday's intra-day rebound from 112.02 (Europe) to 112.68 in New York morning, price jumped from 112.24 to 112.66 in Tokyo morning as intra-day rise in Nikkei increased risk appetite and triggered broad-based selling in yen.

In Asian session, we will see the release of Japan's construction orders and housing starts at 05:00GMT.
In addition, investors should pay attention to the headlines as BoJ's Governor Kuroda may deliver speech during his appearance in Japanese parliament (04:00GMT).

At present, offers are noted at 112.70-80 and then 111.90-00 with stops above there, whilst bids are noted at 112.30-20 and more around 112.10 with stops below 112.00, suggesting choppy sideways trading would be seen ahead of European open.

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand business confidence, Australia new home sales, Japan construction orders, housing start, Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, unemployment change, France consumer spending, producer prices, CPI, U.K. GDP, current account, mortgage approvals, Italy CPI, producer prices, Eurozone inflation, U.S. initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI and Canada GDP.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Apr 2016 01:07GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite dlr's rebound after ratcheting lower from Thursday's Asian high of 112.66 to 112.11 in New York session, intra-day retreat from o/n New York high of 112.61 to 112.21 in Tokyo morning suggests directionless session inside near term established range of 112..02-112.68 would continue ahead of the release of important U.S. non-farm payrolls data in New York morning later today.

Market's focus today is surely on release of the US non-farm report as the Federal Reserve takes into account the health of the labour market in determining the timing of another interest rate hike. Market expects U.S. to have added 205K jobs to the economy in March compared to 242K the previous month. Having said that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S.'s average hourly earnings, unemployment rate as well as the Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI which are scheduled to release later in NY morning at 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively.

At present, offers are noted at 112.50-60 and then 112.80-90 with stops above there, whilst bids are noted at 112.20-10 and more around 112.00 with stops below there.

Data to be released on Friday:

Australia AIG manufacturing index, Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan large all industry Capex, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, Tankan small all industry Capex, manufacturing PMI, China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, private payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, average earnings, participation rate, manufacturing PMI, construction spending, Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Canada RBC manufacturing PMI.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Apr 2016
09:16GMT

EUR/USD - ..... The single currency trades with a firm undertone as early release of upbeat German & EZ mfg PMIs prompted another wave of broad-based euro buying (eur/gbp climbed to fresh 14-month peak of 0.7965), suggesting re-test of yesterday's 5-month high at 1.1412 (New York) is on the cards where buy stops are reported above there.

Therefore, trading euro from the long side is recommended, however, do exit long positions ahead of key U.S. payrolls is recommended as the NFP had clocked up well above 225k in last 4 out of 5 months.
Another robust number (230K plus) may knock euro briefly to 1.1360/70 before buyers emerge.

For now, bids have been raised to 1.1390-80 and more below with stops below 1.1360. Offers are tipped at 1.4410/15 with stops above there.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016
02:16GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The Japanese yen gained broadly on Tue in Asia as data on wages suggested improvement (see our previous MMN). The pair came under renewed selling pressure after meeting selling interest at 111.36 ahead of Asian open and then fell below New York support at 111.10 to a session low of 110.86 after the Japan's jobs report.

Although dlr's intra-day weakness in Asia suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen, as investors are awaiting more clarity on the direction of rates in the U.S. in the release of minutes later this week, sharp decline below Mar's 16-mohth bottom at 110.67 is not likely to be seen and 110.00 (psychological support) should hold on 1st testing.

Today will see the release of U.S. service PMI by Markit and ISM non-manufacturing in New York morning.
At the moment, offers are noted at 111.10-20 and more at 111.30-40 with stops above 111.50, whilst on the downside, bids are reported at 110.70-60 and then at 110.50-30 region with stops below there.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Apr 2016
09:31GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Britain's economy appears to have slowed since the start of this year as worries about the global economy, government spending cuts and a vote on staying in the European Union take their toll, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.
Financial data company Markit said its Purchasing Managers Index for services recovered only slightly last month after reaching its lowest in nearly three years in February.
Official data last week showed Britain's economy did slightly better than thought at the end of 2015, but the Markit figures, which economists use as a guide to future official numbers, suggest 2016 got off to a weak start.

Combined with sub-par readings for manufacturing and construction, Markit said its service PMI pointed to a fall in quarterly economic growth in the first three months of 2016 to 0.4 percent, from 0.6 percent in the final three months of 2015.
Britain's economy grew 2.3 percent last year. Government forecasters expect growth to slow to 2.0 percent in 2016.
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU on June 23.

A poll of businesses on Monday showed the possibility of a vote in favour of leaving is causing companies to put investment plans on hold.

The weaker growth forecasts left finance minister George Osborne hunting for savings in last month's budget.

The Markit/CIPS services PMI - which covers the private-sector services that make up about 40 percent of Britain's economy - rose to 53.7 in March from February's near three-year low of 52.7, in line with economists' expectations.
Monday's construction PMI and Friday's survey of manufacturers were lacklustre, too.
The combined index for the three measures inched up to 53.7 in March from 52.9.
Services generated new business at the slowest rate since January 2013, and the readings for hiring and business expectations were among the weakest in the past three years.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Apr 2016
02:11GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Although dlr tumbled to a fresh 17-month trough at 109.92 near New York midday on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in February, short-covering emerged later in the day and lifted price to 110.55. Dlr then retreated to 110.23 in Australia before climbing marginally higher to 110.57 in Tokyo morning.

Today's focus for the market is surely on the release of FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT as investors are looking for more details behind the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and clues on the timing of the next interest rate increase. Therefore, sharp gain or losses is not likely to be seen in Asian n European sessions.

At present, bids are noted at 110.20-10 and 110.00-109.90 with stops below 109.80.
On the upside, offers are reported at 110.60-70 and more at 110.80-90 with stops above 111.00.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

China services PMI, Japan leading economic index, coincident index, Germany industrial production, U.S. mortgage application and Canada Ivey PMI.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Apr 2016
01:25GMT

USD/JPY - 109.45... Although dlr rebounded from a fresh 17-month trough at 109.34 to 109.83 in New York afternoon after release of FOMC minutes, then a brief jump to 109.91 in Tokyo morning on comments from Japan MOF official (see our previous MMN), dovish comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan knocked price down again to 109.35.

Renewed intra-day weakness in dlr during Tokyo morning suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen and therefore, selling usd/jpy pair on recovery is still favour.
However, sharp decline below 109.00 level is not likely to be seen ahead of the release of U.S. jobless claims in New York morning (12:30GMT).

At present, offers are reported at 109.60-70 and then 109.80-90 with mixture of offers and stops seen in the region of 110.00-110.20.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 109.30-20 and near 109.10 with buying interest from various accounts noted at 109.00-108.90.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
08 Apr 2016
01:10GMT

USD/JPY - 108.64... Although the greenback accelerated recent losing streak vs the Japanese yen on worries of a slowdown in global economy and fell to a fresh 17-month trough at 107.67 in New York morning on Thursday, short-covering emerged there and later lifted price to 108.46 near New York closing.
Later, the greenback found renewed support at 108.07 and climbed higher to 108.84 in Tokyo morning following verbal warnings by Japanese officials (see our previous MMNs).

Today, U.S. will release Wholesale Inventories and Wholesale Sales data for Feb at 14:00GMT.
Later, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will speak at a mobile classroom run by the American Job Center the tour of The WorkPlace at 15:15GMT.

Although intra-day rise in usd/jpy pair in Tokyo morning suggests consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen in Asia, current decline in Nikkei may limit upside to 109.00 level n yield retreat.
At the moment, bids are reported at 108.60-50 and more at 108.40-30 with stops below 108.20, whilst on the upside, offers are tipped at 108.90-00 and in the region of 109.10-30 with stops above 109.50.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Apr 2016
04:11GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound tracked euro's intra-day swing closely in Asian and early European sessions on Thursday. Price started to fall after rising from Asian low at 1.4106 to 1.4157 at European open and tanked to 1.4049. Later, price rebounded to 1.4118 in New York morning before edging lower again on cross-selling in sterling vs euro.

Today's focus for the British pound will be on the release of UK industrial production n UK manufacturing output at 08:30GMT.

At the moment, offers are reported at 1.4090-00 and then 1.4110-20 with stops above 1.4130, whilst bids are noted at 1.4060-50 and more at 1.4030-20 with stops below 1.4000.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan trade balance, current account, consumer confidence, economy watcher poll, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, current account, France budget balance, industrial output, U.K. industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, U.S. business optimism index, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada housing starts, unemployment rate, employment change, participation rate.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 1.1350-40 and more at 1.1330-20 with stops below 1.1300.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Apr 2016
01:03GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr recovered ahead of Asian open on Monday after extending selloff from Friday's high of 109.10 to 107.83 at New Zealand open, intra-day decline in Nikkei (currently down 224.50 to 15,597) triggered another wave of buying in yen for risk aversion and pressured price lower again to 107.87 in Tokyo morning before moving sideways.

Today, focus in Asian session will be on the speech from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who will deliver speech at annual meeting of trust banks at 06:15GMT.
Later, despite the absence of economic reports from U.S., Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before a community forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas at 17:00GMT.

At present, offers are reported at 108.10-20 and then 108.30-40 with mixture of offers and stops in the region of 108.60-80.
On the downside, bids are noted ahead of last Thursday's fresh 17-mohth trough at 107.67 with stops below there.
However, buying interest from various accounts are tipped further out in the region of 107.40-20.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Apr 2016
02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback retreated after yesterday's intra-day rebound from a fresh 17-month trough at 107.63 (Asia) to 108.44 in New York morning, renewed buying emerged at 107.79 n price later staged a bounce to 108.13 in New York afternoon, then 108.27 in Tokyo morning on Tuesday as intra-day rise in Nikkei (currently up 104 points to 15,855) improved risk appetites.

Today, U.S. will release its Import Prices n Export Prices for March in New York morning. Having said that, focus of the market will be on the speeches from several Fed's officials later in New York session, they are Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (13:00GMT), San Francisco Fed President John Williams (19:00GMT), and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker (20:00GMT).

At the moment, offers are noted at 108.30-40 and more at 108.60-70 with stops above 108.90.
On the downside, initial bids are tipped at 107.90-80 and then 107.70-60 with stops below there.
 

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AceTraderFx Apr 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Apr 2016
04:12GMT

GBP/USD - ...... The British pound rallied after a brief retreat from 1.4145 to 1.4108 in European morning on Monday and then rallied to a high of 1.4287 in New York morning due to active cross-buying in sterling especially versus euro. Later, price retreated to 1.4230 in New York afternoon, then marginally lower to 1.4227 ahead of Asian open on Tuesday.

Today will sell the release of a slew of economic data from UK during European session, these include CPI, RPI, PPI and DCLG house prices.
Market expects the inflation in UK to rise with a monthly rate of 0.3% in March compare to 0.2% in preceding month, whilst RPI to drop to 0.3% last month vs 0.5% in February. Having said that, investors should pay attention to the latest PPI readings as it may paint a mixed picture to the economic outlook with its variations in input and output.

At the moment, bids are noted at 1.4220-10 and more at 1.4200-1.4190, then 1.4180-70 with stops below 1.4160.
On the upside, offers are reported at 1.4250-60 and 1.4270-80 with stops above 1.4300.