AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2185
Euro's rally from 1.2105 to 1.2185 on Friday, then yesterday's gain to 1.2201 (New York) strongly suggests early correction from May's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 has ended, intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before prospect of further gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below last week's high at 1.2254.

On the downside, only a daily close below Mon's 1.2145 low aborts bullish view and may risk weakness towards 1.2105.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, GDP deflator, GDP, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Watchers current, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
UK BRC retail sales, Germany industrial output, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales, EU employment change, GDP, ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. trade balance, redbook, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.50
Despite the greenback's brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 in Asia on Friday, subsequent selloff in New York on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.

On the data front, U.S. will release international trade balance, goods trade balance, redbook sales and JOLTS job openings, these data are not expected to have any impact on intra-day price swings, so traders will take cue from movement in U.S. yields in New York session

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2176
Despite yesterday's sideways move following early rally from last Friday's near 3-week trough at 1.2105 to 1.2201 (Monday), as this move signals correction from May's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 has possibly ended, a daily close above 1.2201 would encourage for gain towards 1.2266 later this week.

Only a firm break of 1.2145 aborts bullish outlook and may risk re-test of 1.2105.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand manufacturing sales, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI, Japan machine tool orders.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.39
Despite the greenback's brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Monday on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.

U.S. will later release some second-tier eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Once again, traders will take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. yields.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2178
Despite yesterday's resumption of near term upmove from 1.2105 (Friday) to 1.2218 in New York due to falling U.S. yields, intra-day sharp retreat on safe-haven usd's buying in reaction to weakness in U.S. equities suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of key ECB monetary policy announcement and then release of U.S. inflation data.

Above 1.2218 would signal correction from May's 1.2266 peak has ended and gain towards there would follow whilst a daily close below 1.2145 would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 1.2105.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia consumer inflation expectations, Japan corporate goods price index.
UK RICS housing price balance, France non-farm payrolls, industrial output, Italy industrial output, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Federal budget.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite the greenback's brief rise to a fresh 2-month peak at 110.33 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 109.20 Monday on downbeat U.S. NFP data suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.04, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 110.15 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and bring re-test of said resistance.

On the data front, market's main focus this week is the release of U.S. inflation data, namely CPI n core CPI later today (please see our EI page for details).
Although street forecast for May annual CPI to be 4.7% vs previous reading of 4.2%, if actual figure comes in lower than estimate, then expect renewed usd's selling.
On the flip side, if it's higher, U.S. yields will jump and would push the pair higher to 110.00/10.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2177
Despite euro's intra-day brief fall from 1.2194 to 1.2144 on ECB Lagarde's dovish comments, subsequent rebound due to usd's weakness on the back of selloff in U.S. yields suggests pullback from this week's 1.2218 high has ended, a daily close above there would encourage for further headway towards May's peak at 1.2266 next week.

On the downside, only below 1.2144 prolongs this week's daily wild swings and would risk marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2105.

The only EU eco. data due out is German wholesale price index. G7 starts its 3-day meeting in England later today, pay attention to comments by G7 officials. We also have ECB member Fernandez-Bollo speaking at an event at 12:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.49
Yesterday's fall from 109.79 to 109.31 in NY due to selloff in U.S. yields suggests early correction from this week's low at 109.20 (Mon) has ended and expect consolidation before decline from Jun's near 2-month peak at 110.33 resumes, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 108.71/75.

Only above 109.79 dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger retracement to 110.00/10.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales.
Germany wholesale price index, UK GDP industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada capacity utilization, and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2118
Although euro's rebound from 1.2095 (Europe) to 1.2130 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at Friday's 4-week trough at 1.2093, as long as 1.2144 (previous sup, now res) holds, bearishness remains for subsequent weakness, 'loss of momentum' should keep price above 1.2052.

Only a daily close above 1.2093 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2194 before prospect of retreat later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of inflation data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details. We also have some ECB members scheduled to speak in European session.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.09
The greenback's rally from 109.33 in Europe on Friday to 110.15 today on rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests pullback from June's near 2-month peak at 110.33 has ended at 109.20 last Monday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.05/10, however, said resistance may hold on first testing and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 109.20 would revive bearishness for stronger weakness to 108.80/90 before prospect of a rebound later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, food price index, GDT price index, Australia house price index, Japan tertiary industry activity.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
Canada housing starts and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2124
Although euro's retreat from 1.2148 to 1.2102 yesterday suggests correction from Friday's near 4-week trough at 1.2093 has possibly ended, subsequent rebound is likely to bring sideways ahead of key FOMC announcement later today.

Below 1.2093 would extend recent decline to next chart objective at 1.2052 whilst a daily close above 1.2148 (Fed's dovish hold perhaps) shifts risk to upside for stronger retracement towards 1.2194, break, 1.2218.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, China industrial output, retail sales.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU labour costs, U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, import prices, export prices, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, core CPI, wholesale trade.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.96
Dollar's erratic rise from last Monday's 109.20 low to 110.16 in Europe yesterday suggests pullback from June's near 2-month 110.33 peak has ended and intra-day pullback will bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove, above 110.33 yields 110.70/75 but March's 1-year 110.96 peak should hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 109.83 would bring stronger retracement to 109.60, break, 109.31/35.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data in New York morning (please refer to our EI page for details) which are likely to be ignored until FOMC announcemnet.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1998
Euro's selloff in post-FOMC New York session below previous June's 1.2093 low on Wednesday to a 5-week trough of 1.1985 today following Fed's hawkish tilt suggests recent rise from 2021 bottom at 1.1705 has ended at 1.2266 (May) and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, oversold condition may keep euro above 1.1919 (61.8% r of 1.1705-1.2266).

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2052 dampens bearishness and may risk gain twd 1.2093 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDP, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
Canada ADP employment change, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading index change.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.62
Dollar's rally yesterday after Fed's hawkish hold and then break of previous June's 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March's 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January's 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 b4 prospect of correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.

U.S. will later release some eco. data (please see for EI page for details) but market focus will be on intra-day move in U.S. yields as well as U.S. equities, further decline in U.S. stocks will trigger safe-haven usd buying.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 18: AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1908
Yesterday's follow-through selloff to a 2-month low of 1.1893 following Wed's surprise hawkish tilt by the Fed suggests recent decline would pressure price towards next chart objective at 1.1868,
oversold condition should prevent further steep decline.

Only a daily close above New York high at 1.1950 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.2000/05 before prospect of another fall next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Bank of Japan interest rate decision.
Germany producer prices, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar's rally yesterday after Fed's hawkish hold and then break of previous June's 110.33 high to 110.71, then 110.82 in Asia today suggests early correction from March's 1-year 110.96 peak has ended at 107.49 in April, above extends uptrend from 2021 January's 102.60 trough to 111.60/70 b4 prospect of correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.33 may risk stronger retracement to 109.81/85.

T.G.I.F. n no U.S. eco. data is due out, so market will take cue from movement in U.S. yields n intra-day price swings in U.S. stocks as 'volatility' is expected on today so-called 'quadruple witching' day due to expiries of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options n lastly, single stock futures.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1870
Friday's resumption of recent decline to a 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1848 (New York) due to active safe-haven usd buying suggests euro would extend further weakness after minor consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum is likely to keep price above above 1.1786 and risk has increased for a correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1925 signals temporary low is made and yields retracement towards 1.1950 before retreat.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries. ECB President Lagarde will appear at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament at 14:15 GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.96
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.

Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price and Australia retail sales on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jun 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1907
Although euro's rebound on Monday after initial re-test of Fri's 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as long as 1.1950 holds, downside bias remains, however, loss of near term downward momentum would keep price above 1.1800/10.

Only a daily close above 1.1950 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.20006 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the data front, we have Italy's industrial sales n then EU's consumer confidence. We also have ECB's Lane speaking on "The resilience of the euro" at 14:00GMT n then ECB's Schnabel speaking at 17:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jun 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite dollar's fall from last Thursday's 10-week peak at 110.82 to 109.72 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in tandem with U.S. yields suggests the pullback has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 110.48, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, however, loss of momentum may keep price below 2021 peak at 110.96 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.72 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of recent upmove to 109.60 but 109.20 should hold.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia Westpac consumer survey.
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. redbook, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing and EU consumer confidence.