AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/US

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1806
Despite the single currency's brief break of last Thur's low at 1.1790 to 1.1765 in post-NFP trading on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1854 suggests the decline from last Tue's fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1865 would add credence to this view and extend to 1.1929/30 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1782 would revive bearishness for a stronger retracement of MT upmove to 1.1755, then to 1.1700/10 before rebound occurs.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Japan all household spending, current account, GDP delfator, GDP, trade balance, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook, machine tool orders Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, France non-farm payrolls, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy retail sales, EU employment change, GDPm
Canada leading index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 08: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.26
Dollar's sideways move following rally from last Monday's 105.30 low to 106.55 on Thursday suggests choppy trading inside recent 107.04-105.11 broad range would continue, as long as 106.01 holds, consolidation upside bias remains, above 106.55 would head to 106.94 but 107.04 may limit upside.

On the downside, only below 106.01 would risk stronger retracement to 105.86, then 105.60/70 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released later :
UK BRC retail sales, France non-farm payrolls, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy retail sales, EU employment change, GDP.
Canada leading index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1773
Euro's intra-day resumption of decline from September's fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1758 in Australia today suggests price would head to 1.1710/12, then lower to 1.1697 after minor consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1650/60 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1827 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1854/65 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand manufacturing sales, ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, Japan machine tool orders.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada housing starts, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.92
Dollar's erratic fall from last Thursday's 106.55 high to 105.80 at European open today suggests recent upmove from 105.21 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 105.60/61 would bring re-test of 105.21 but break needed to extend decline from August's 107.04 peak to 105.11, then 104.80/90.

On the upside, only above 106.38 would risk stronger gain to 106.50/55, but 106.70 may hold.

Data to be released later :
Swiss unemployment rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada housing starts, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1808
Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from Sep's 1.2011 peak to a near 4-week trough of 1.1754 in Europe, subsequent rally to 1.1833 signals 1st leg of correction is over and sideways swings are seen ahead of ECB's monetary policy announcement, reckon 1.1900/10 would cap present rise and yield strong retreat.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1782 would bring re-test of 1.1754, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above daily sup at 1.1712.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand manufacturing sales, ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, Japan machine tool orders.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada housing starts, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.05
Dollar's rally from yesterday's low at 106.80 (Europe) to 106.27 in New York on rebound in U.S. stocks and yields, then to 106.29 in Asia today suggests pullback from last Thursday's 106.55 high has possibly ended and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 106.50/55, break would extend to 106.70/80 later.

On the downside, only below 105.80 risks stronger retracement to 105.60 but 105.35/40 may hold.

The U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data (see our EI page for details) and market focus is on the weekly jobless claims as well as continued jobless claims as weekly barometer on U.S. employment situation.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1835
Despite euro's intra-day jump to 1.1917 in post-ECB New York morning, subsequent selloff to 1.1811 on renewed broad-based usd's strength due to safe-haven buying on weakness in U.S. stocks suggests choppy trading below Sep's 2-year peak at 1.2011 would continue with downside bias, a daily close below 1.1800 would bring re-test of 1.1754 (Wed low) next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1880/90 dampens daily bearish view and may risk another rise towards 1.1917.

Apart from eco. releases, we have many ECB official scheduled to speak at a Eurodi Financial Forum in Berlin as well as EuroGroup meeting in Berlin (please refer to our EI page for details).
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.21
Despite dollar's selloff from last Thursday's 106.55 top to as low as 105.80 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.29 in Asia yesterday suggests pullback has possibly ended and as price has rebounded after retreat to 105.99, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 106.55, break would extend to 106.70/80.

On the downside, only below 105.80 would risk stronger retracement to 105.60 but 105.21 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Friday :
Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada capacity utilization, and U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1840
Despite euro's intra-day jump to 1.1917 in post-ECB New York morning on Thursday, subsequent selloff to 1.1811 on renewed broad-based usd's strength due to safe-haven buying on weakness in U.S. stocks suggests choppy trading below September's 2-year peak at 1.2011 would continue with downside bias, a daily close below 1.1800 would bring re-test of 1.1754 (Wed low) next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1880/90 dampens daily bearish view and may risk another rise towards 1.1917.

Data to be released later today :
China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity, industrial output, capital utilization.
UK Rightmove house price and EU industrial production on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.98
Despite dollar's rebound from last Wednesday's 105.80 low to 106.29 on Thursday, intra-day retreat suggests further choppy trading inside recent 105.60-106.55 broad range would continue with downside bias, however, reckon 105.80 should contain weakness and yield another bounce, above 106.38 would head back to 106.55, then 106.70/80.

Only below 105.80 would risk stronger retracement to 105.60 but 105.30 would remain intact.

Data out today :
China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity, industrial output, capital utilization.
UK Rightmove house price and EU industrial production on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1867
The single currency's rebound to 1.1887 yesterday on usd's weakness suggests early pullback from last Thursday's high at 1.1917 has ended at 1.1811 the same day and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from last Wednesday's 4-week trough at 1.1754 to 1.1935/40 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.1811 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk weakness to 1.1780/85 but support at 1.1754 should remain intact.

Pay attention to the release of Germany ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 69.8 and -72.0 vs previous readings of 71.5 and -81.3 respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.74
Although yesterday's fall below last Wednesday's 105.80 low to 105.56 in New York due to weakness in U.S. Treasury yields suggests decline from September's 106.55 peak has resumed, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 105.21 and yield rebound.

On the upside, above 106.00/10 needed to head back to 106.26/29, then 106.50/55.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer and import price index, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU labour costs, ZEW survey expectations, Canada manufacturing sales.
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization manufacturing output.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1833
Despite the single currency's rebound to 1.1900 yesterday, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.1840 and intra-day break below this level suggests further choppy trading below last Thursday's high at 1.1917 would continue with downside bias and below 1.1811 (reaction low) would extend weakness to 1.1782/90, however, last Wednesday's near 4-week bottom at 1.1754 should hold on 1st testing, yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.1900 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 1.1917, break would risk stronger retracement of decline from September's 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1960/65.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, core PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, BoC core CPI, core CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.25
Dollar's erratic fall from September's 106.55 high suggests re-test of August's low at 105.11 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from August's peak at 107.04 to 104.73/78, however, reckon July's 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 should hold on first testing.

On the upside, only above 105.81 would risk gain back to 106.00/04 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, core PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, BoC core CPI, core CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1781
The single currency's selloff from yesterday's European high at 1.1882 to as low as 1.1789 in post-FOMC New York, then lower to 1.1769 today suggests early recovery from last Wednesday's near 4-week trough at 1.1754 has ended at 1.1917 last Thursday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from September's 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1730/35 later.

On the upside, only above 1.1854 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger gain to 1.1882, then 1.1900 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan BoJ interest rate decision.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, and Canada ADP employment change.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.81
The greenback's fall to a 6-week trough at 104.81 in New York morning yesterday and intra-day break below this level to 104.70 signals erratic decline from August's peak at 107.04 remains in progress and further weakness to 104.59 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above daily support at 104.19 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 105.17 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 105.54/56 but resistance at 105.81 should hold.

Pay attention to U.S. jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is for a decrease to 850k from previous reading of 884k.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1851
Despite the single currency's initial fall to a 1-month bottom at 1.1738 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rally to as high as 1.1852 near New York closing and intra-day break above this level suggests decline from September's 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1882, however, resistance at 1.1900 may hold and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1789 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness to 1.1754, then 1.1738 again.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI.
Germany producer price index, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Italay industrial orders, industrial sales, EU current account.
U.S. current account, leading index change, University of Michigan sentiment index, and Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, wholesale trade.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.60
Although dollar's rebound from yesterday's fresh 6-week low at 104.53 to 104.86 in Asia today suggests recent decline from August's high at 107.04 has made a temporary low, intra-day retreat signals recovery has ended and weakness to 104.30/35 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon July's 104.19 trough should remain intact.

On the upside, only a firm break above 104.86/90 would risk stronger retracement to 105.17.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a slight uptick to 75.0 from previous reading of 74.1.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1856
Despite the single currency's initial fall to a 1-month bottom at 1.1738 on Thursday, subsequent rally to as high as 1.1870 on Friday suggests decline from September's 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1882, however, resistance at 1.1900 may hold and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1789 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness to 1.1754, then 1.1738 again.

In the absence of major economic data, pay attention to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who is due to speak at an online meeting of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly at 12:45GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 104.13
Dollar's intra-day break of August's 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 signals medium term decline from March's 111.71 peak has once again resumed and further weakness to 103.70/80 would be seen after consolidation, however, 'loss of momentum' should keep price above 103.55/60 today.

On the upside, only daily close above 104.63 indicates temporary bottom made, risks retracement to 104.86, break, 105.00/05.

Data to be released today :
UK Rightmove house price.
U.S. national activity index and Canada new housing index on Monday.