AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1797
Euro's decline from last Tue's fresh 2-year peak of 1.1965 to as low as 1.1755 on Fri due to broad-based rebound in the greenback suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and as price has retreated after yesterday's rebound to 1.1849, downside bias remains and below 1.1755 would bring stronger retracement of medium-term decline to 1.1712 before prospect of rebound later.

Only a daily close above 1.1831 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.1870/80 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Pay attention to the release of German Ifo business climate and current conditions at 08:00GMT. Street forecasts are 92.1 and 87.0 vs previous readings of 90.5 and 84.5 respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.18
Dollar's rise from 105.45 to 106.07 last Friday, then intra-day break of said resistance suggests pullback from Thursday's 106.21 high has ended and upmove from August's trough at 105.11 would resume after consolidation and head to 106.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 105.70 would risk weakness to 105.45, break may bring re-test of 105.11.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price index, CaseShiller home price index, consumer confidence new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1829
Euro's rebound from 1.1784 to 1.1844 yesterday suggests choppy trading above last Friday's low at 1.1755 would continue and above Monday's high at 1.1849 would yield stronger retracement of decline from August's fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 to 1.1868/70, however, resistance at 1.1882/85 should limit upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1784 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 1.1755, break would extend weakness to 1.1720/30.

In the absence of major economic data from the EU today, pay attention to comments from ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, who is scheduled to speak at 11:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.26
Despite dollar's selloff from August's near 3-week high at 107.04 to 105.11 last Wednesday, subsequent rise to 106.57 in New York yesterday suggests pullback has ended and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before re-test of 107.04, break needed to extend upmove from July's 104.19 trough to 107.20/30 but 107.53 may hold.

On the downside, only below 106.00/10 would risk weakness to 105.70/80.

Data to be released later on Wednesday :
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1838
Despite euro's retreat to 1.1773 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above last Friday's low at 1.1755 would continue with upside bias and above Friday's reaction high at 1.1849 would extend marginally, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below resistance at 1.1880/82 and yield another fall.

On the downside, below 1.1773 is needed to revive bearishness for a re-test of aforesaid low, break would extend decline from August's 2-year peak at 1.1965 to 1.1720/30.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia capital expenditure, building CapEx, Japan total industrial activity.
Swiss GDP, France business climate, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales.
U.S. GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada current account, average weekly earnings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.02
Despite dollar's selloff from Tuesday's high at 106.57 to 105.81 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 106.17/21 would confirm this view and heads back to 106.55/57, where break would extend upmove from August's 105.11 bottom to 106.80/90.

On the downside, below 105.70/80 would risk weakness to 105.45 before prospect of another gain.

Attention now shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Annual Jackson Hole Symposium at 13:10GMT, where he is scheduled to address the issue of how the central bank will adjust its monetary policy to meet its inflation target. Elsewhere, U.S. will release its GDP at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts for GDP QQ and GDP deflator are -32.5% and -2.0% vs previous readings of -32.9% and -2.1%

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1814
Despite the single currency's brief but sharp rise to 1.1901 in New York yesterday on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's opening remarks, subsequent selloff to 1.1763 due to the rally in U.S. yields suggests recovery from last Friday's low at 1.1755 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from August's 2-year peak at 1.1965 to 1.1720/30 later.

On the upside, only above 1.1849 would dampen daily bearishness and risk gain to 1.1882 but 1.1901 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI,k Tokyo CPI.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment import prices, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.11
Despite intra-day break of yesterday's high at 106.70 to 106.94 in Asia, subsequent selloff on active safe-haven jpy buying on news of Japan PM Abe's planned resignation suggests upmove from August's 105.11 trough has made a temporary top there and weakness to 105.61, then 105.45 would be seen after consolidation, break needed to head back to 105.11/16..

On the upside, only above 106.55/57 would risk gain to 106.70, then possibly 106.94 again.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but one should pay attention to personal income and personal spending at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are -0.2% and 1.5% vs previous readings of -1.1% and 5.6% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1914
The single currency's rally to 1.1919 on Friday and intra-day break above this level suggests correction from August's fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 has ended earlier at 1.1755 and consolidation with upside bias remains for 1.1952, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend Medium Term upmove to 1.1980/90 later this week, however, 1.2000 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 1.1868 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1844/49 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released today :
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, housing starts, construction orders, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia business inventories.
UK market holiday, Swiss retail sales, Italy GDP, consumer price, CPI (EU norm), Germany CPI, HICP.
Canada building permits, producer prices and U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 31: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.83
Despite dollar's selloff from Friday's 106.94 (Asia) high to 105.21 in New York on news of Prime Minister Abe's resignation, intra-day strong rebound suggests further choppy trading inside recent 107.04-105.11 broad range would continue and stronger retracement to 105.90/00 may be seen before prospect of another fall.

On the downside, below Asia's 105.30 low would bring re-test of 105.11, break should head to 104.80/90.

In the absence of major U.S. data today, pay attention to comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is due to speak at 14:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1941
The single currency's rally from 1.1884 yesterday and re-test of August's fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 suggests MT upmove would resume after consolidation and extend to 1.1985/90, however, loss of momentum would keep price below psychological 1.2000 handle and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.1884 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1868 before prospect of rebound.

Although there is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today, pay particular attention to Germany's unemployment data at 07:55GMT. Street forecasts for unemployment change and unemployment rate are 0k and 6.4% vs previous readings of -18k and 6.4% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 01: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.74
Although dollar's rebound from last Friday's 105.21 low suggests choppy trading above August's 105.11 trough would continue, as 106.09 has capped recovery in New York on Monday, consolidation with downside bias remains and below 105.21 would bring re-test of 105.11, break would head to 104.78/83.

On the upside, only above 106.09 may risk gain to 106.52/57 but 106.94 should remain intact.

Data to be released later:
Swiss manufacturing MPI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP, core HICP, unemployment rate, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1912
Despite the single currency's rally to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 in New York morning yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.1902 suggests Medium Term upmove has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen, however, support at 1.1885 should remain intact and yield another rebound later, above 1.1963/65 would bring re-test of 1.2011 later.

On the downside, only below 1.1885 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1868, then to 1.1849 before prospect of a rebound later this week.

Pay attention to release of EU producer prices at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts for mm and yy are 0.5% and -3.4% vs previous readings of 0.7% and -3.7% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.05
Despite dollar's selloff from last Friday's high at 106.94 to 105.21 in New York, subsequent rebound to 106.15 on Tuesday suggests choppy trading above August's trough at 105.11 would be seen with upside bias for gain to 106.50/60 before prospect of retreat.

Only above 106.70 would risk re-test of 106.94 while below 105.60 would head back to 105.30/35, then 105.11/21.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK BRC shop price index, nationwide house price index, Australia GDP, Germany retail sales, EU producer prices, Canada labour productivity rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, factory orders.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1843
Despite the single currency's rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 on Tuesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1823 yesterday on usd's broad-based strength suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1763/70, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1720/30 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1902 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 1.1929 but 1.1965 should hold.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Swiss CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labour costs, productivity, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.28
Although dollar's rally from last Friday's low at 105.21 to as high as 106.34 in Europe today suggests choppy trading above August's 105.11 trough would continue and marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should limit upside at 106.70/80 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 105.86 would risk stronger retracement to 105.56/62, then 105.21.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to U.S. jobless claims (12:30GMT) and ISM non-manufacturing PMI (14:00GMT). Street forecasts are 950k and 57.0 vs previous readings of 1,006k and 58.1 respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1853
Despite the single currency's rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 on Tuesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1790 yesterday on suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1763/70, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1720/30 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1902 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 1.1929 but 1.1965 should hold.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia retail sales, Germany industrial orders.
France budget balance, current account, UK Markit construction PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.18
Despite yesterday's rally to 106.55, subsequent fall to 106.01 in late New York on drop in U.S. Treasury yields suggests choppy trading inside recent 107.04-105.11 broad range would continue with downside bias, below 105.86 would bring stronger retracement to 105.60 but last Friday's 105.21 low should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 106.55/57 risks gain to 106.94, then 107.04 before prospect of retreat.

Market focus is on the release of U.S. jobs report today at 12:30GMT as it will provide the Federal Reserve with what measures it should employ to counter the ongoing stagnant job growth. Street forecasts for non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average earnings mm are 1,400k, 9.8% and 0.0% vs previous readings of 1,736k, 10.2% and 0.2% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1839
Despite the single currency's brief break of last Thursday's low at 1.1790 to 1.1765 in post-NFP trading on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1854 suggests the decline from last Tuesday's fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1865 would add credence to this view and extend to 1.1929/30 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1782 would revive bearishness for a stronger retracement of Medium Term upmove to 1.1755, then to 1.1700/10 before rebound occurs.

Pay attention to the release of German industrial output mm and yy at 06:00GMT.
Street forecasts 5.4% and 12.1% vs previous readings of 8.9% and -11.7% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sept 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.17
Dollar's rally from last Monday's trough at 105.30 to 106.55 last Thursday suggests further choppy trading inside recent broad range of 106.94-105.21 would continue and as long as support at 106.01 holds, upside bias remains and above 106.55 would head to indicated upper level, break would extend to 107.10/20 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 106.01 would risk stronger retracement to 105.86, then 105.60.

Data to be released later :
Germany industrial output, UK Halifax house prices, EU Sentix index.
U.S. market holiday and Canada market holiday on Monday.