AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.69
Although dollar has eased after rally from Wednesday's 109.86 low to a near 10-month high at 112.22 yesterday and range trading would be seen, as long as 121.12 holds, upside bias remains and above 112.22 would extend medium term upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 towards 112.39, break needed to extend to 112.60/65.

On the downside, only below 111.12 would risk stronger retracement to 110.90/95, then 110.65/70.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to manufacturing and services PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecasts are for a slight drop to 51.5 and 53.0 from previous readings of 51.9 and 53.4 respectively.
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a "Monetary policy for next recession" panel at 18:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 24:: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Feb 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0832
Despite euro's intra-day gap-down open to 1.0811 in New Zealand on continued coronavirus fears, subsequent rebound suggests further choppy trading above last Thursday's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 would continue with upside bias and above Friday's high at 1.0863 would bring stronger retracement of medium-term decline to 1.0888, then 1.0925 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.0811 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for a re-test of 1.0778 later this week.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, Australia capital expenditure, China industrial production, retail sales.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current assessment, Ifo expectations.
UK BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.48
Although dollar's initial weakness to 111.22 in New Zealand due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at last Thursday's 9-1/2 month peak at 112.22, intra-day rebound has retained bullish bias and above 112.03 would encourage for subsequent headway towards 2019 top at 112.39.

Only a daily close below 111.12 sup dampens bullish outlook and risks stronger retracement to 110.80/90 before prospect of recovery.

Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current assessment, Ifo expectations, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing index and Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Feb 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0852
Despite euro's intra-day gap-down open to 1.0811 in New Zealand, subsequent rally to 1.0871 in New York on usd's weakness suggests further choppy trading above last Thursday's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 would continue with upside bias and stronger retracement of medium-term decline to 1.0888, then 1.0925 would be seen before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.0811 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for a re-test of 1.0778 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan coincident index, leading index.
Germany GDP, Swiss non-farm payrolls, France business climate, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. redbook,, monthly home price, CS home price, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Feb 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0875
The single currency's rise to 1.0871 on Monday and then higher to 1.0890 yesterday suggests Medium Term decline has made a temporary low at last Thursday's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.0925, then 1.0940 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.0957 today and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.0831 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk would increase for weakness to 1.0806, then 1.0778 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK BRC shop price index, Australia construction work done, France consumer confidence, Italy trade balance, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, new home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.41
Dollar's fall from last Thursday's 9-1/2 month high at 112.22 to 109.90 in New York yesterday suggests medium term upmove from August's 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and intra-day rebound in tandem with U.S. yields would bring range trading before prospect of another decline, below 109.90 would extend to 109.63/66.

On the upside, only above 110.87/90 would risk stronger retracement to 111.00/03, then 111.20/22.

Apart from the US housing data which will be released today, there are a slew of Federal Reserve speakers due to speak today so one should pay attention to the following; Dallas Fed President Kaplan at 14:45GMT and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari at 18:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0888
Despite the single currency's rise to 1.0890 on Tuesday and then higher to 1.0908 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 1.0856 suggests upmove from last Thursday's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 has possibly made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a stronger retracement to 1.0831, however, support at 1.0806 would remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.0908 would revive bullishness for marginal gain to 1.0915/20 but resistance at 1.0925 should cap current rise and yield correction.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity.
Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE prices, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada current account, average weekly earnings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.03
Dollar's retreat from yesterday's high at 110.70 to 109.98 in Asia today suggests recovery from Tuesday's low at 109.90 has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from February's 9-1/2 month peak at 122.22 to 109.63 but 109.54 should remain intact due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 110.71 signals pullback has made a temporary bottom there and stronger retracement to 111.03, then 111.22.

There is a slew of U.S. data due today but one should pay particular attention to the release of U.S. final GDP figures at 13:30GMT.
Street forecasts for GDP and GDP deflator are 2.1% and 1.5% vs previous readings of 2.1% and 1.4% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0998
The single currency's rally to 1.1005 in New York yesterday on dollar's broad-based weakness suggests the upmove from February's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 remains in progress and further gain to 1.1030/40 would be seen, however, overbought condition would keep price below 1.1063 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.0947 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.0925 but support at 1.0856 would remain intact and yield rebound.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. Chicago PMI at 14:45GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 45.9 from previous reading of 42.9. Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a presentation on the US economy and monetary policy before the Fort Smith Chamber of Commerce at 14:15GMT.
It would be wise to be on the lookout for hints on how he thinks the Federal Reserve will tackle the current global growth concerns.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.80
Dollar's decline to 109.58 near New York close yesterday, then intra-day fall below said support on selloff in U.S. stocks and yields suggests medium term upmove from 2019 33-month bottom at 104.46 has made a temporary top at last Thursday's 9-1/2 month peak of 112.22 and further weakness to 108.32/35 would be seen after consolidation but oversold condition may keep price above 108.00.

On the upside, only above 109.58/68 would indicate temporary low made and risk stronger retracement to 110.00/10.

Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GdP, production prices, budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1041
The single currency's rise to a 3-1/2 week peak at 1.1052 on Friday and intra-day break above this level suggests upmove from February's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 has resumed and further gain to 1.1096/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1118 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.0991 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 1.0952 later.

Data to be released today:
Australia AIG manufacturing index, business inventories, ANZ job advertisements, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite dollar's resumption of recent decline from Feb's near 10-month peak at 112.22 to a 4-1/2 month bottom at 107.00 in New Zealand today, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with US yields suggests temporary low is in place, however, reckon 108.80/85 would cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, below 107.76 would extend weakness to 107.52/55 but 107.00 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Monday:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1144
The single currency's rise to a 3-1/2 week peak at 1.1053 on Friday and yesterday's rally above this level to 1.1185 suggests upmove from February's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 has resumed and subsequent retreat would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise and above 1.1185 would extend to 1.1210/20.

On the downside, only below 1.1039 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 1.0991 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia building approvals, current account, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan consumer confidence.
Swiss GDP, France budget balance, Italy unemployment rate, UK Markit construction, EU HICP, production prices index, unemployment rate.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.98
Although dollar's rally from Monday's 4-1/2 month bottom at 107.00 suggests recent decline from Feb's near 10-month peak at 112.22 has made a temporary bottom, subsequent retreat from 108.57 suggests recovery has ended and consolidation would be seen before re-test of 107.00, break, 106.82/85 later.

On the upside, only above 108.53/57 would risk stronger retracement to 109.00/05.

In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors should pay attention to comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner in London at 19:50GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1177
The single currency's rally in New York yesterday on the Federal Reserve's surprise 50 basis points rate cut and break of Monday's high at 1.1185 to 1.1213 suggests upmove from February's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 has once again resumed and further gain to 1.1240/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1265 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.1121 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1096/00.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, real GDP, New Zealand building permits, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit services PMI, Swiss CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, GDP, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.35
Yesterday's break of Monday's low at 107.00 to 106.94 in New York due to surprise 50 b.p rate cut by the Fed, then to a 4-1/2 month bottom at 106.86 in Australia today confirms recent decline has resumed, subsequent rebound may head back to 108.00/06 before prospect of another fall, however, reckon 106.49 would remain intact.

On the upside, only above 108.06 would risk stronger retracement to 108.53/57.

Pay attention to the release of US ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 170k n 54.9, down from previous readings of 291k and 55.5 respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1137
Despite the single currency's rally to a 2-month peak at 1.1213 on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut its interest rates by 50 basis points, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.1096 yesterday suggests upmove from February's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 has possibly made a temporary top there and range trading is in store before prospect of another rise towards said resistance later, break, 1.1239.

On the downside, only below 1.1053 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 1.1000/05, then 1.0970/80 before rebound.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. initial jobless claims, labour costs, productivity index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.26
Despite dollar's resumption of recent decline from February's 9-1/2 month peak at 112.22 to a fresh 4-1/2 month bottom at 116.86 (AUS) yesterday, subsequent rebound to 107.73 today suggests temporary low made and intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise to 108.00/10.

On the downside, only below 107.00 may risk re-test of 106.86, break may head to 106.49/54.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast if for a decrease in filings to 215k from previous reading of 219k.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1227
The single currency's rise above Tuesday's near 2-month peak at 1.1213 to 1.1244 yesterday on usd's broad-based weakness suggests upmove from February's near 3-year trough at 1.0778 has once again resumed and further gain to 1.1285/90 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 1.1320.30 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.1168 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk would increase for a stronger retracement to 1.1120.

Pay attention to the release of German industrial orders at 07:00GMT. Street forecasts for mm and yy are 1.4% and -7.6% vs previous readings of -2.1% and -8.7% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.78
Yesterday's selloff below Wednesday's low at 106.86 to 105.98 in New York, then to 105.68 today confirms recent decline from February's 9-1/2 month high at 112.22 has resumed and price would head to 105.00/10 after consolidation before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 106.34 signals temporary bottom is made and risks stronger retracement to 106.51, then 106.86.

Data to be released later:
Germany industrial orders, France current account trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, trade balance, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.