AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1083
Despite the single currency's fall to a 6-week trough at 1.0982 on Friday, subsequent rally to 1.1089 on Monday, then 1.1093 yesterday due to usd's broad-based weakness suggests decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1113 but loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1140.

On the downside, only below 1.1028 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended and risk weakness to 1.1004, however, said 1.0982 low would remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG services index, GDP, capital expenditure, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada labour productivity rate, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.48
Despite dollar's erratic rise from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 6-month high of 109.72 Mon, subsequent selloff to 108.49 in New York yesterday, then lower today on U.S.-China trade concerns suggests weakness to 108.25/29 would be seen after consolidation but 107.90 may hold due to loss of downward momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.93 signals correction over and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT . Street forecasts are 140k and 54.5 vs previous readings of 125k and 54.7 respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1081
Although price has retreated after yesterday's rise to a near 1-month peak at 1.1115 and minor consolidation would be seen in Asia, as said move signals upmove from last Friday's low at 1.0982 to retrace decline from October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 has resumed, upside bias remains and above 1.1115 would extend to 1.1140. However, aforesaid top at 1.1179 should hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 1.1048 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1004 before prospect of recovery.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia retail sales, trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, EU employment change, GDP, retail sales.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transport, factory order, and Canada Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.90
Despite dollar's retreat to 108.44 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rebound to 108.96 in New York suggests recent decline from Mon's 6-month peak at 119.72 has made a temporary low and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall, below 108.44 would extend to 108.10/20 but Nov's 107.90 bottom should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 109.20 would risk stronger gain to 109.41, break, 109.60/70.

Pay attention to U.S. jobless claims (13:30GMT) and factory orders (15:00GMT). Street forecasts are 215k and 0.3% vs previous readings of 213k and -0.6% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1104
Euro's rebound to 1.1108 suggests pullback from this week's high at 1.1115 (Wednesday) has ended and above said res would extend upmove from last Fri's 6-week bottom at 1.0982 marginally higher after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1179 (Oct's peak) today.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1066 sup signals top is made and risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement towards 1.1028.

On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. indicators starting with Germany's industrial output, France's current account, trade balance, exports and imports, then Italy will release retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.62
Despite dollar's rebound from Wed's trough at 108.44 to 108.99 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 108.61 today suggests correction has ended and decline from Mon's 6-month high at 109.72 would resume and extend to 108.25/29, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.

T.G.I.F. for Asian traders but Euroepan n N. American players are bracing themselves for release of U.S. non-farm payrolls, average earnings, unemployment at 13:00GMT, then University of Michigan consumer confidence, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales at 15:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Dec 2019 04:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1055
Despite Friday's initial firmness, failure to re-test Wed's 4-week high of 1.1115 and intra-day selloff from 1.1109 (Europe) to as low as 1.1041 after robust U.S. jobs data suggests early upmove from Nov's 6-week bottom at 1.0982 has made a top there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for a strong retracement of said rise, near term oversold condition would keep price above 1.1004.

On the upside, above 1.1080/90 would be the 1st signal pullback has ended and may head back to 1.1100/10 later today or tomorrow.

On the data front, we have Germany's exports, imports, current account n trade balance at 07:00GMT, then EU's Sentix investor sentiment at 09:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.53
Dollar's intra-day sideways move after retreat from 108.91 to 108.53 in New York last Fri due to falling US yields suggests correction from Wed's trough at 108.44 has ended at 108.99 Thur and re-test of said support is seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from Dec's high at 109.72 to 108.25/29 but 107.90 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 108.91/99 signals temporary low made and risks gain to 109.20, break, 109.41.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index and Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1064
Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.1078, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading below last Wednesday's 4-week peak at 1.1115 would continue with mild downside bias, however, Friday's low at 1.1041 should remain intact and yield another rise towards said top, break would extend recent upmove from 1.0982 to 1.1140 later.

On the downside, only below 1.1041 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of aforesaid upmove to 1.1004 but 1.0982 should hold on first testing.

Pay attention to the release of Germany ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.0 and -22.3 vs previous readings of -2.1 and -24.7 respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.64
Although dollar has recovered after yesterday's re-test of last Wed's low at 108.44 and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen, however, reckon 108.91/99 would remain intact and yield prospect of another decline, below 108.44 would extend fall from Dec's 6-month 109.72 high towards 108.25, then 107.90 (Nov bottom).

On the upside, only above 108.99 would risk stronger retracement to 109.20, break, 109.41/45.

In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors are looking for more clarity on whether U.S. would impose the increased tariffs on Chinese goods, starting Dec. 15 or if the two countries can agree on a limited trade deal.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1093
Despite euro's selloff from last Wednesday's 4-week peak at 1.1115 to 1.1041 last Friday, subsequent rebound to 1.1078 on Monday, then higher to 1.1097 yesterday suggests the pullback is over and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend recent upmove from 1.0982 towards 1.1140 before prospect of retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.1041 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1004 but 1.0982 should hold on 1st testing.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand retail sales, UK YouGov final MRP poll release, Australia consumer sentiment, Japan corporate goods price, producer price index, Canada capital utilization, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, CPI, core CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget, Fed interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.71
Although dollar's choppy swings following fall from Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.44 last Wednesday would continue, as said move signals upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 has made a temporary top there and reckon resistance at 108.99 would hold and yield another decline, below 108.44 would extend decline to 108.25, then 107.90.

On the upside, only above 108.99 suggests pullback over and risks stronger gain to 109.20, break, 109.41 later.

Today's focus is on the Federal Reserve's rate decision at 19:00GMT. Although it is widely expected that the central bank will keep its rate unchanged at 1.75%, one should pay attention to Chairman Powell's press conference at 19:30GMT and look for hints on whether any more rate cuts are expected or not.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1138
The single currency's rally above last Wednesday's 4-week peak at 1.1115 to 1.1144 on usd's weakness in post-FOMC trading suggests a re-test of October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from October's low at 1.0880 to 1.1195/00 but loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1205 and yield much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.1097 would indicate a temporary top has been mad risk would increase for a much-needed retracement to 1.1071.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand food price index, Japan machinery orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, parliamentary election, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price index, SNB interest rate decision, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, EU industrial production, ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, core PPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.63
Despite dollar's retreat from 108.85 in Australia to 108.47 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above last Wednesday's trough at 108.44 would continue, however, reckon resistance at 108.85 would remain intact and bring another fall later, below 108.44 would extend decline from Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 to 108.25 later.

On the upside, only above 108.99 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.20 but 109.41 (previous support) would hold.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 13:30GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 213k from previous reading of 203k.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1171
Although price has eased after intra-day cable-led rise above October's 2-month peak at 1.1179 to 1.1199 and minor consolidation would be seen before upmove from 1.0880 (October) heads to 1.1230/40, reckon over bought condition would keep price below 1.1249 today and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.1104 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1071 but support at 1.1041 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big manufacturing outlook, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing outlook, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing outlook, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing outlook, industrial output, capital utilization.
Germany wholesale price index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK election's result, ex, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK election's result, U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.62
Dollar's intra-day rally to a 1-week high at 109.66 suggests a re-test of Dec's 6-month high at 109.72 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from Aug's 33-month trough at 104.46 to 109.93 but 110.44 may hold due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 108.94 signals temporary top made and stronger retracement to 108.69, break 108.44.

There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to retail sales and retail sales ex-autos at 13:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.5% and 0.4% vs previous readings of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1126
Despite the single currency's cable-led rise to a 4-month peak at 1.1199 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 1.1112 suggests medium-term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1104, then 1.1071, however, support at 1.1041 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1185 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said top, break would extend uptrend from October's 2019 trough at 1.0880 to 1.1220/30 later before prospect of correction.

Data to be released today:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, industry activity.
U.K. Rightmove house price index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, CBI trends survey, China industrial output, house prices, retail sales, industrial production, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm), EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, labour costs.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, NAHB housing market on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.44
Despite the greenback's rise to 109.70 on Friday after U.S. and China agreed to a "phase-one" of the trade deal, subsequent retreat to 109.21 on profit-taking suggests further choppy trading below December's 6-month peak at 109.72 would continue with downside bias and below 109.21 would extend weakness to 108.94, then 108.75, however, 108.44 (reaction low) would hold this week and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.70/72 would revive bullishness for further gain to 110.05/10, then 110.30/40 before prospect of correction.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 14:45GMT. Street forecasts are 52.5 and 51.8 vs previous readings of 52.6 and 51.6 respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Dec 2019 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1137
Despite the single currency's cable-led rise to a 4-month peak at 1.1199 on Friday, subsequent selloff to 1.1112 suggests medium-term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1104, then 1.1071, however, support at 1.1041 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1185 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said top, break would extend uptrend from October's 2019 trough at 1.0880 to 1.1220/30 later before prospect of correction.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, GDT price index, Australia housing finance, Italy trade balance, goods trade balance.
U.K. ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earning, claimant count, EU trade balance.
Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, industrial production, JOLTS job openings.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Dec 2019 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.60
Despite dollar's retreat from last Fri's high at 109.70 to 109.21, subsequent rebound to 109.67 yesterday suggests pullback has ended the same day and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of Dec's 6-month top at 109.72, break would extend upmove from Aug's 104.46 bottom to 109.93/00 but 110.10 may hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 109.21 would risk weakness to 108.94, then, 108.69.

There is a slew of housing data to be released today but pay attention to industrial production mm at 14:15GMT. Street forecast is for an increase of 0.8% vs previous reading of a 0.8% drop.