AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by AceTRaderForex, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 05 Dec 2017 06:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1874
    Despite yesterday's weakness to 1.1830 (New York) on usd's broad-based strength due to market optimism on U.S. tax overhaul, subsequent rebound on profit taking in the usd suggests euro would continue to 'gyrate' inside recent broad range of 1.1961-1.1809 range with upside bias, above 1.1900 would add credence to this view and may head back towards 1.1940.

    On the downside, only below last week's 1.1809 low would risk stronger correction of recent upmove to 1.1770/75 before prospect of a recovery later this week.

    Today is PMI day, Italy will release Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany and the EU.
    EU will also release retail sales. Last but not least, Buba President n ECB Board member Weidmann will at a conference in FFT at 16:30GMT.
     
  2. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 05 Dec 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 112.69
    Despite the greenback's resumption of decline from November's 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 to a fresh 2-month trough at 110.84 last Monday, subsequent rebound to 112.88 Friday and then intra-day break of this resistance suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with uspide bias remains for a stronger retracement towards 113.20/30 but near term loss of momentum would keep price below 113.44 this week and yield retreat.

    On the downside, only below 111.38 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said support early next week.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    U.K. BRC retail sales, Markit services PMI, China Caixin services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales.
    Canada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. trade balance, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
     
  3. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 06 Dec 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1827
    Euro's intra-day rebound after yesterday's brief break of last week's low at 1.1809 (New York) suggests range trading is in store initially, a firm break above 1.1840/45 would signal recent decline from 1.1961 has made a low there, then stronger retracement to 1.1877/78 and later 1.1900 would follow.

    On the downside, below 1.1801 would risk marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1770/75 and bring strong recovery.

    Data to be released on Wednesday:
    Australia GDP, Germany industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, nonfarm productivity, and Canada BoC rate statement, BoC interest rate decision.
     
  4. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 06 Dec 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 112.11
    Despite the greenback's resumption of decline from November's 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 to a fresh 2-month trough at 110.84 last Monday, subsequent rebound to 112.88 Friday and then intra-day break of this resistance suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with uspide bias remains for a stronger retracement towards 113.20/30 but near term loss of momentum would keep price below 113.44 this week and yield retreat.

    On the downside, only below 111.38 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said support early next week.

    U.S. will release mortgage applications, ADP employment data n non-farm productivity.
    Pay attention to ADP private payrolls number ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs data, street forecast is look for an increase of 185K in Nov vs previous reading of 235K, if actual figure comes in lower than estimate, USD will be sold.
     
  5. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 07 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1794
    Yesterday's firm break of 1.1800 to a near 2-week low at 1.1781 due to broad-based usd's strength suggests decline from Nov's 2-month peak at 1.1961 would extend weakness to 1.1757 after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above daily sup at 1.1714 .

    On the upside, above 1.1848 anytime would signal aforesaid fall has made a low, then risk is seen for subsequent headway towards 1.1877/78.

    The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's industrial output, France's current account, trade bal., imports n exports n lastly EU's GDP. ECB President Draghi will hold a news conference on Basel banking reforms in FFT at 15:00GMT n then will participate in a press conference at 16:00GMT.
     
  6. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 07 Dec 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 112.58
    Despite resumption of decline from this week's 2-week high of 113.09 to retrace recent upmove from November's 110.84 bottom to 112.00 yesterday's intra-day rise above 112.37 on the back of renewed usd's strength and rising U.S. yields suggests temp. low is made and choppy sideways swings are in store.

    Only above 112.86 would bring re-test of 113.09 whilst below 112.00 would extend weakness to 111.70/74 later today or tomorrow.
     
  7. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 08 Dec 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1768
    Although yesterday's intra-day wild swings ended with euro's resumption of recent decline to a 2-week low at 1.1772 near New York close after early brief rebound to 1.1814, loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall today ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data and reckon daily sup at 1.1714 would remain intact.

    On the upside, a daily close above 1.1814 signals decline from 1.191 has made a temp. low, then stronger gain to 1.1848 and later to 1.1877/78 would follow.

    Eco. calendar in the euro area is pretty light with Germany's trade balance and France's industrial output being the only the data due out but all eyes are on U.S. payrolls number.
     
  8. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 08 Dec 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 113.49
    The greenback's rally in New York yesterday and subsequent break of Monday's high at 113.09 signals upmove from last week's 2-month trough at 110.84 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for stronger retracement of erratic decline from November's 4-month peak at 114.74 towards 113.80/90 but near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.07/10.

    On the downside, only below 112.86 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger correction to 112.37/40 before prospect of a rebound later.

    Data to be released on Friday:
    Japan current account, GDP, trade balance, eco watchers outlook, eco watchers current, China exports, imports, trade balance.
    Italy market holiday, Germany exports, imports, current account, trade balance, France industrial output, budget balance, U.K. construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate.
    Canada housing starts, capacity utilisation, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, University of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.
     
  9. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 11 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1730
    Despite euro's resumption of recent recent decline to a 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1730 after release of U.S. jobs data, subsequent swift bounce suggests temporary low has been made and consolidation is in store, above 1.1814 is needed to confirm temp. low has been made and bring stronger retracement towards 1.1848.

    On the downside, below 1.1730 would yield marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1678 today.

    Eco. data from the euro area is very thin with Italy's retail sales being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.
    ECB's Villeroy and Bank of France gov. Villeroy will speak at a banking conference in Paris at 08:00GMT.
     
  10. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 11 Dec 2017 10:00 GMT

    USD/JPY - 113.44
    Although price has eased after intra-day rise to a 3-week peak at 113.69 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals decline from November's 4-1/2 month top at 114.74 has made a temporary low at 110.84 in November, upside bias remains and above 113.69 would extend to 113.91.
    However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.34 and yield retreat.

    On the downside, only below 112.86 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 112.37/40.

    Data to be released today:
    Japan business survey index, Italy retail sales, and U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.
     
  11. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 12 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1777
    Despite extending gain from last Friday's near 3-week trough of 1.1730 to 1.1812 in New York morning, euro's subsequent retreat suggests consolidation with downside bias is in store, below 1.1746/50 would signal correction is over and yield subsequent weakness towards next daily chart sup at 1.1714.

    Only a daily close above 1.1814 res would risk stronger retracement to 1.1848, then 1.1877/78 before prospect of another fall later this week.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    Japan CGPI, tertiary industry index, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, house price.
    France non-farm payrolls, U.K. DCLG house price, CPI, core CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, EU ZEW economic sentiment, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions.
    U.S. PPI, core PPI, redbook, federal budget.
     
  12. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 13 Dec 2017 05:50 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1747
    Despite euro's intra-day recovery after yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a 3-week trough of 1.1718, as long as 1.1764/65 (previous sup, now res) holds, outlook remains mildly bearish for test of next daily sup at 1.1714, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1678 and bring correction.

    A daily close above 1.1793 signals decline from 1.1961 (November) has made a low and risk stronger gain to 1.1812/14, then 1.1848.

    Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's final CPI data for November and wholesale price, then Italy's industrial production, then the same from the EU and employment data.
     
  13. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 14 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1840
    Euro's impressive rally to 1.1832 in post-FOMC New York session and then intra-day break above there confirms recent correction from November's 1.1961 high has ended earlier at 1.1718 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1877/78, near term o/bot condition is likely to cap price below 1.1900 ahead of ECB's rate decision later today.

    On the downside, only below 1.1771 signals temp. top is made but 1.1730 should remain intact.

    Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's CPI, Markit mfg n services PMIs, then the same fm Germany n then the EU. At 12:45GMT, we have the final ECB rate decision n press conference at 13:30GMT.
     
  14. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 15 Dec 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1788
    Although euro's anticipated resumption of upmove from Tie's 3-week low at 1.1718 to 1.1863 in post-ECB suggests early correction fm Nov's peak at 1.1961 has ended, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1771, then 1.1765 today signals choppy sideways swings are in store b4 prospect of another rise next week.

    Only below 1.1730 dampens bullishness on euro an risks re-test of 1.1714/18 sup.

    Data to be released on Friday:
    Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big manufacturing outlook DI, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing DI, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing outlook DI, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing outlook DI.
    EU trade balance, Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output.
     
  15. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1745
    Despite euro's initial rebound from 1.1765 (AUS) to 1.1812, subsequent selloff in New York session to 1.1749 on renewed hopes of U.S. tax overhaul suggests decline from last week's high at 1.1863 may head to sup area at 1.1714/18, break needed to extend recent erratic fall from November's 2-month peak at 1.1961 to 1.1670/78 later this week before prospect of rebound.

    On the upside, above 1.1812 anytime signals pullback from 1.1863 has ended and outlook would turn bullish for re-test of this res level.

    On the eco. data front, Italy will release trade balance n the EU's final CPI for November. The German Bundesbank will publish its monthly report during European morning.
     
  16. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 18 Dec 2017 10:00 GMT

    USD/JPY - 112.71
    The greenback's selloff to as low as 112.46 Wednesday after the Federal Reserve hiked its rate by 25 bps, then to 112.07 yesterday suggests corrective rise from November's 2-month trough at 110.84 has made a temporary top at 113.75 Tuesday and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 111.70/74.
    However, support at 111.41 should remain intact initially and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 113.25 (previous support, now resistance) would indicate said pullback is over and risk re-test of said res, break would extend to 114.10/20.

    Data to be released on Monday:
    Italy trade balance, EU CPI, core CPI, U.K. CBI industry trends survey and U.S. NAHB housing market on Monday.
     
  17. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 19 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1782
    Although yesterday's impressive rally from 1.1738 (Australia) to as high as 1.31834 in New York morning due to profit-taking in USD ahead of U.S. tax bill vote suggests choppy consolidation above last week's bottom at 1.1718 would continue, subsequent retreat would bring sideways swings in Asia and Europe.

    As long as sup area at 1.1730/38 holds, another bounce to 1.1834 is still envisaged, above would encourage for re-test of 1.1863.
    Below 1.1730 would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 1.1714/18.

    On the eco data front, Germany will release Ifo data and then EU's labour cost and construction output.
    ECB's Council member Hansson will speak at a conference at 09:00GMT.
     
  18. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 20 Dec 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1843
    Euro's intra-day erratic rise above Mon's 1.1834 high to 1.1849 due to broad-based usd's retreat and rising euro bond yields suggests re-test of last week's high at 1.1861 would be forthcoming soon where a break there would extend recent upmove from December's trough at 1.1718 to 1.1890/00.

    On the downside, only below 1.1776/77 sup signals temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1738 but 1.1718 should remain intact.

    Data to be released on Wednesday:
    Germany producer prices, EU current account, U.K. CBI distributive trades.
    Canada wholesale sales, budget balance and U.S. MBA mortgage application, existing home sales.
     
  19. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG]
    DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

    Update Time: 20 Dec 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 113.09
    The greenback's selloff to as low as 112.46 Wednesday after the Federal Reserve hiked its rate by 25 bps, then to 112.07 yesterday suggests corrective rise from November's 2-month trough at 110.84 has made a temporary top at 113.75 Tuesday and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 111.70/74.
    However, support at 111.41 should remain intact initially and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 113.25 (previous support, now resistance) would indicate said pullback is over and risk re-test of said res, break would extend to 114.10/20.

    U.S. eco. calendar is very light with Nov existing home sales being the only data due out at 15:00GMT.
     
  20. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1873
    Yesterday's rally above last week's high at 1.1863 to 1.1902 in New York morning due partly to rising German bond yields confirms recent upmove from December's 1.1718 low has resumed and subsequent retreat would bring consolidation before marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below November's peak at 1.191 today.

    On the downside, a firm break of 1.1849 would be the signal temporary top is made, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1829, then 1.1806.

    Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very thin with France's business climate and EU consumer confidence being the only 2 releases due out, so pay attention to German bond yields and U.S. eco. data later in the day.
     

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