AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by AceTRaderForex, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 16 Nov 2017 05:20 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1783
    Despite yesterday's resumption of recent upmove to a 3-week peak of 1.1861 in New York morning, subsequent retreat to 1.1789 due to broad-based usd's short covering in New York afternoon and then intra-day weakness to 1.1769 in Australia today suggests temporary top has been made and 1-2 days of broad consolidation is seen before recent rise from November's 3-month bottom at 1.3554 resumes.

    As long as 1.1726 holds, upside bias remains for another bounce to 1.1830/40 but 1.1861 would cap upside and only a daily close below 1.1691 risks stronger retracement to 1.1691 before prospect of rebound.

    Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy's trade balance n then EU CPI data.
    Pay attention to speeches by ECB's Jazbec at 08:00GMT, ECB's Mersch at 08:45GMT, ECB's Praet at 11:00GMT, ECB's Villeroy at 14:30GMT and ECB's VP Constancio at 20:00GMT.
     
  2. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 16 Nov 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 113.17
    The greenback's intra-day sharp retreat n subsequent break of last Thursday's low at 113.09 signals erratic decline from November's fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 has resumed and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 112.48/50 but near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall beyond there and reckon support at 112.30 would remain intact and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 113.50 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.91 before prospect of pullback.

    Data to be released on Thursday:
    France ILO unemployment rate, Italy trade balance, U.K. retail sales, core retail sales, EU CPI, core CPI.
    Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. import prices, export prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index.
     
  3. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 17 Nov 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1815
    Euro's intra-day rise above 1.1800/05 strongly suggests early retreat from Wed's 3-week high at 1.1861 has ended yesterday at 1.1757 and recent upmove from 1.1554 would head towards next daily objective at 1.1880 (October high) before prospect of correction due to loss of upward momentum.

    On the downside, only below 1.1757 would dampen present bullish scenario on euro and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1726.

    Eco. data due out today from the EU are current account and construction output.
    Today the EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will have a meeting in Brussels, ECB President Draghi, Bundesbank President Weidmann and Deutsche Bank CEO Cryan will speak at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress "Europe into a New Era ? How to Seize the Opportunities" in Frankfurt, Germany at 08:30GMT.
     
  4. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 20 Nov 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1732
    Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.1797 (AUS) to as low as 1.1723 on news of breakdown in German coalition talks suggests recent strong rise from November's 1.1554 bottom has made a top last week at 1.1861 and stronger retracement towards 1.1671 (61.8% r) may be seen after consolidation, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1638.

    Only above 1.1798 suggests said pullback from 1.1861 has ended and yield another gain towards 1.1822.

    Data to be released today:
    Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Germany producer prices, and U.S. leading indicator on Monday.
     
  5. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21 Nov 2017 04:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1743
    Despite shrugging initial market concerns on breakdown in German coalition talks and staging an intra-day rally from 1.1723 to 1.1809 (Europe), euro's subsequent fall back to 1.1728 in New York on broad-based usd's strength suggests choppy trading below last week's high at 1.1861 would continue, below 1.1723 would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 1.1691.

    Only above e.1809 aborts daily downside bias and risks gain to .1822, break may head to 1.1840/50.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    Japan all industry activity index, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI industry trends survey, New Zealand GDT price index, Canada wholesale sales, and U.S. national activity index, redbook, existing home sales.
     
  6. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 Nov 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1739
    Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from last week's high at 1.1861 to 1.1714 in New York morning, subsequent minor rebound suggests initial consolidation would take place and above 1.1758 (European high) would bring stronger retracement to 1.1770/80 before prospect of one more fall, loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1691/95.

    Only above 1.1809 (Monday high) suggests said correction is over and may head towards 1.1850/60 later this week.

    As no euro area eco. data is due out, European traders may well respect Tuesday's 1.1714-1.1758 range until release of U.S. eco. data later in the day.
     
  7. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 Nov 2017 09:00 GMT

    USD/JPY - 112.05
    The greenback's sharp retreat last week and subsequent break of November's low at 113.09 to 111.89 Monday signals erratic decline from November's fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 has resumed and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 111.75/80 but near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall beyond there and reckon support at 111.65 would remain intact and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 113.33 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.91 before prospect of pullback.

    Data to be released on Wednesday :

    EU consumer confidence, and U.S. MBA mortgag application, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, initial jobless claims, University of Michigan sentiment and FOMC minutes.
     
  8. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 Nov 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1818
    Yesterday's anticipated rally to 1.1827 due to broad-based usd's weakness after dovish FOMC minutes suggests correction from last week's high at 1.1861 has ended at 1.1714 (Tuesday) and re-test of said temporary high is envisaged after consolidation, break would encourage for subsequent headway to 1.1880 (October high).

    On the downside, only below 1.1773 would prolong choppy sideways trading and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1733/36 before prospect of another bounce.

    Today is PMI day n euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's GDP, France's bus. climate, Markit mfg and services PMIs, then the same fm Germany and the EU plus Italy's trade balance.

    Pay attention to release of ECB's minutes at 12:30GMT, before that, ECB's Chief Economist Praet will speak at a conference in Luxembourg at 08:35GMT and later ECB's Board member Coeure will speak in Paris.
     
  9. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 Nov 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 111.18
    The greenback's sharp retreat last week and subsequent break of November's low at 113.09 to 111.89 Monday and yesterday's fall to 111.15 on dovish FOMC minutes signals erratic decline from November's fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 has resumed and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 110.88 but near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall beyond there and reckon support at 110.50 would remain intact and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 113.33 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.91 before prospect of pullback.

    Data released on Thursday:
    Japan market holiday, U.S. market holiday, New Zealand retail sales.
    Germany GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit Services PMI, France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit Services PMI, Italy trade balance, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit Services PMI, U.K. GDP, CBI distributive trades, and Canada retail sales.
     
  10. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 24 Nov 2017 05:50 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1849
    Euro's rally from this week's low at 1.1714 (Tue) to 1.1856 on the back of Wed's dovish Fed minutes and upbeat EZ data yesterday suggests re-test of November's 1.1861 would be forthcoming soon, break there would extend recent upmove to 1.1880 (October high), however, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price at 1.1909.

    On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1813 would prolong recent broad sideways swings and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1768/73 but 1.1714 should remain intact.

    The Social Democrats (SPD) have governed in coalition under Merkel since 2013. But leader Martin Schulz said the party must heed the will of voters by going into opposition after achieving its worst result of the postwar period in the Sept. 24 election.
    Pressure is growing on the party to revisit his decision, either by agreeing to prop up a conservative-led minority government by not voting against it, or by forming a renewed coalition.
     
  11. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 24 Nov 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 111.38
    The greenback's sharp retreat last week and subsequent break of November's low at 113.09 to 111.89 Monday and yesterday's fall to 111.07 on dovish FOMC minutes signals erratic decline from November's fresh 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 has resumed and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 110.88 but near term loss of momentum would prevent sharp fall beyond there and reckon support at 110.50 would remain intact and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 113.33 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 113.91 before prospect of pullback.

    Data to be released on Friday :
    Swiss industrial orders, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
     
  12. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Nov 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 27 Nov 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1923
    Euro's impressive rally on Friday above October's 1.1880 high (now sup) to a 2-month peak of 1.1944 suggests recent strong upmove would head to 1.980/90 after consolidation, loss of near term upward momentum is likely to cap price below 1.2000 and risk has increased for a much-needed minor retracement to take place.

    On the downside, expect 1.1880 to hold and yield subsequent rise and only below there confirms temporary top is made, risks stronger correction towards 1.1837.

    EZ eco. calendar is pretty light with Italy's business and consumer confidence bring the only data due out.
    There is an EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting today and ECB's Vice President Constancio will participate in a panel discussion in FFT at 11:15GMT.
     
  13. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 28 Nov 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1905
    Despite yesterday's resumption of recent strong upmove to a fresh 2-month peak of 1.1961 in New York morning, subsequent stronger-than-expected decline to 1.1891 near Monday's close suggests temporary top has been made and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store.

    As long as 1.1861 (previous res, now sup) holds, re-test of 1.1961 is envisaged but reckon 1.2005 should cap upside. Below 1.1861 may risk stronger correction towards 1.1937 before prospect of rebound.

    Germany will release Gfk consumer confidence and import prices, then France's consumer confidence during European morning.
     
  14. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 28 Nov 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 111.29
    As the greenback has retreated again after meeting renewed selling at 111.69 in Australia, suggesting recovery from last Thursday's low at 111.07 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for decline from November's 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 to resume and yield re-test of said support, break would extend towards 110.70 but loss of momentum would keep price above 110.58.

    On the upside, only above 112.18 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.50/52 before prospect of retreat.

    Data to be released on Tuesday:
    Germany GfK consumer sentiment, import price, France consumer confidence.
    Canada producer prices, and U.S. building permits, wholesale inventories, redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing.
     
  15. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 29 Nov 2017 06:00 GMT


    EUR/USD - 1.1843
    Yesterday's intra-day selloff from 1.1920 (Europe) to as low as 1.1828 in New York afternoon due to active selling of euro vs sterling following media reports a Brexit divorce deal has been struck confirms recent upmove from November's 1.1554 has made a top at 1.1961 (Monday) and as long as 1.1875/85 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1813 is likely, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1790/00.

    A daily close above 1.1875 signals pullback is possibly over and yield stronger gain towards 1.1920.

    Data to be released on Wednesday:
    Japan retail sales, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, ZEW investor sentiment, France consumer spending, GDP, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, GDP, PCE, pending home sales, Fed's beige book.
     
  16. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 29 Nov 2017 09:00 GMT

    USD/JPY - 111.49
    Despite the greenback's rebound from Monday's fresh 2-month trough at 110.84 to 111.66 in Asia today, subsequent retreat to 111.39 suggests aforesaid recovery has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for recent decline from November's peak at 114.74 to resume and yield re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend towards 110.58/60 but loss of momentum would keep price above 110.20/30 and yield correction.

    On the upside, only above 111.66 would revive bullishness for a stronger retracement towards 111.89/90, then 112.38 before prospect of another retreat later.

    Pay attention to release of a slew of key U.S. eco. data starting with Q3 GDP, prelim. Q3 PCE, pending home sales and last but not least Fed's beige book. Also take note of speech by NY Fed President Dudley, testimony by Fed Chair Yellen before the congressional Joint Senate Committee n speech by S. Francisco Fed President Williams.
     
  17. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 30 Nov 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1861
    Although euro's intra-day rebound from yesterday's 1.1817 (New York) low suggests decline from Monday's 2-month peak at 1.1961 has finally made a temporary low there and consolidation with initial upside bias is in store, reckon 1.1920 res would cap present rise and yield retreat.

    On the downside, below 1.1828 would extend marginal weakness weakness to 1.1800/05.
    However, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1770/75.
     
  18. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 01 Dec 2017 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1910
    Yesterday's impressive rally from European 1-week low of 1.1809 to as high as 1.1931 in New York morning due to broad-based usd's weakness suggests correction from Monday's 2-month peak at 1.1961 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of 1.1961, break there would encourage for further headway to 1.2000/05 later today or next Monday.

    On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1883 would 'prolong' choppy sideways swings below 1.1961 and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1828/33 before prospect of another rebound.

    Today is PMI day in the euro zone, Italy will kick off with Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France n Germany, Italy's GDP and later EU's mfg PMI.
     
  19. AceTRaderForex

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    AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 04 Dec 2017 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1873
    Euro's intra-day fall from 1.1940 to 1.1845 (New York) on Fri suggests further volatile swings below last Monday's 2-month peak at 1.1961 would continue.
    However, as long as 1.1845 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains, above 1.1940 would encourage for subsequent re-test of 1.1961.

    On the downside, a firm break below 1.1845 would risk weakness to 1.1828/33 but reckon 1.1809 (Thursday) would remain intact.

    Data to be released today:
    Australia HIA new home sales, ANZ job ads, Japan consumer confidence index.
    U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU sentix index, producer prices.
    U.S. ISM New York index, durable goods, factory orders on Monday.
     
  20. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Dec 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 04 Dec 2017 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 112.96
    Despite the greenback's resumption of decline from November's 7-1/2 month peak at 114.74 to a fresh 2-month trough at 110.84 last Monday, subsequent rebound to 112.88 Friday and then intra-day break of this resistance suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with uspide bias remains for a stronger retracement towards 113.20/30 but near term loss of momentum would keep price below 113.44 this week and yield retreat.

    On the downside, only below 111.38 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for a re-test of said support early next week.
    U.S. will release ISM New York index, and factory orders later in the day.

    Pay attention to speeches by BoJ Gov. Kuroda and ECB Board member Villeroy will are both scheduled to make a speech at a seminar in Tokyo at 04:00GMT, Vileroy will make another at a seminar at 06:30GMT.
     

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