AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Aug 2017 05:05 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2013
Despite euro's resumption of its recent uptrend to a fresh 10-1/2 month peak at 1.2093 ahead of European open last Friday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.3016 in New York, then intra-day marginal weakness below this sup suggests temporary top has been made, a firm break of 1.2000 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1985 but reckon 1.1930 would hold.

Only above 1.2060/70 signals pullback is over and brings re-test of 1.2093, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.2140/50.

Data to be released today:
Japan trade balance, machinery orders, tertiary industry index, Italy industrial output, and Canada housing starts on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Aug 2017 09:20 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.46
Despite dollar's resumption of medium-term downtrend to a 10-1/2 month trough of 107.32 (New York) last Friday, subsequent rally to 108.07 on rebound in U.S. yields, then today's cross-inspired gain to 108.62 signals temporary bottom has been made and stronger retracement towards 109.89 is envisaged.

Only below 107.63 suggests correction is over and may bring re-test of 107.32.
As no eco. data is due out in the U.S., funds flow will have a major influence on intra-day price swings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2017 05:50 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1954
Yesterday's weakness to 1.1948 and then daily close below last Friday's 1.2016 low confirms medium-term uptrend has indeed formed a temporary top at 1.2093 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 1.1903, near term oversold condition should keep price above 1.1850.

On the upside, only above 1.2016 signal 1st leg of correction is over but 1.3059 should cap upside and yield another decline later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Francs nonfarm payrolls, U.K. DCLG house price index, CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, and U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2017 09:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.51
Dollar's impressive rally yesterday from 108.15 to as high as 109.50 due to active yen selling on return of risk sentiment together with rising U.S. yields confirms medium-term downtrend has made a temporary low at last Friday's 10-1/2 month bottom at 107.32 and upside bias remains for marginal gain,near term loss of momentum would cap price at 110.06.

On the downside, a daily close below 109.00 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retracement towards 108.57/62 before prospect of another rise later this week.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with Redbook retail sales and JOLTS jobs openings being the data due out where neither will have any impact to price, just following intra-day price movements of U.S. stocks and Treasury yields.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Aug 2017 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1978
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent decline from last Fri's fresh 30-month peak at 1.2093 to 1.1927, subsequent rebound to 1.1973 in New York, then intra-day break of this level suggests said fall has made a temporary low n 1-2 days of choppy consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, however, res at 1.2029 should cap present gain.

On the downside, below 1.1947/48 sup would yield one more fall, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above minor sup at 1.0903.


Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan corp goods price, Australia consumer sentiment, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, avg wk earnings, EU employment, industrial production, and U.S. MBA mortgage app, PPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Aug 2017 09:20 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.00
Although dollar's resumption of upmove from last Friday's 10-1/2 month bottom at 107.32 to as high as 110.29 today confirms medium-term downtrend has made a low there, 'loss of upward momentum' is expected to cap price below daily res at 110.67 and yield retrecement of said move.

Only below 109.59 signals temporary top is made and bring stronger pullback towards 109.24 but 109.00 should contain weakness.

Later in the day, U.S. will release final PPI data for August, so do not expect this to have much influence on intra-day price swing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2017 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1880
Although yesterday's break of Tuesday's 1.1927 low (now res) to 1.1874 due to renewed usd's broad-based gain confirms decline from last Fri's fresh 30-month peak at 1.2093 has resumed, near term loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall and reckon sup at 1.1824 should hold and bring rebound.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1927 signals 1st leg of correction is over and brings a much-needed recovery towards 1.1965 but res at 1.1995 should cap euro's upside.

France will release CPI data n then the same from Italy during European morning.
Pay attention to speech by ECB Board member and Buba President Weidmann at 15:30GMT and then ECB Board member Mersch at 16:00GMT.
ECB's Smets and Jazbec will also speak at conference on Macroprudential Policies later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2017 09:10 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.42
Despite intra-day marginal gain to a 2-week high of 110.73, as upward momentum of near term upmove from last Friday's 10-1/2 month trough at 107.32 is weakening, strong gain is unlikely to be repeated and reckon res at 111.05 would cap upside and yield a much-needed retracement of aforesaid rise.

On the downside, a daily close below yesterday's low at 109.90 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk decline to 109.25/30 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on later:
France CPI, Swiss interest rate decision, Italy CPI, and U.K. RICS housing price balance, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corp bond purchases.
Canada new housing price, U.S. initial jobless claims, CPI,

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Sept 2017 05:05 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1913
Euro's anticipated strong rebound from yesterday's 2-week trough at 1.1839 to 1.1924 at Asian open today signals 1st leg of correction from last Fri's fresh 30-month peak at 1.2093 has ended and several days of 'choppy' consolidation is seen with near term upside bias, however, reckon 1.2065/70 should cap present rise.

On the downside, only below 1.1867 suggests correction from 1.0839 is over and risks one more fall towards next daily chart objective at 1.1824.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI,Germany wholesale price index, EU trade balance, and U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, retail sales, industrial output, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Sept 2017 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.70
As dollar has risen strongly on broad-based yen selling after initial spike down to 109.55 (AUS) following another North Korea missile launch, suggesting pullback from yesterday's 1-month high at 110.04 has ended, above 111.04/05 would extend upmove from 107.32 to projected target at 111.40/45 later today.

On the downside, below 110.07 would 'prolong' volatile trading and risk another fall to 109.70/80 but reckon 109.55 would remain intact.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with retail sales, New York Fed mfg, mfg n industrial output, cap. utilization, bus. inventories and then University of Michigan consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2017 05:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1947
Euro's anticipated rally to 1.1988 last Fri confirms 1st leg of correction from September's 30-month peak at 1.2093 has ended earlier at 1.1839 (Thur) and subsequent retreat would bring consolidation before marginal gain to 1.1995, near term 'loss of momentum' would cap price below res at 1.2029.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1902 sup suggests said corrective rise has ended and bring weakness to 1.1867, then re-test of 1.1839.

A small handful of eco. data is due out during European morning starting with Italy's trade balance n EU CPI data.
ECB Board member Sabine Lautenschlager is participating in panel at a conference called "Supervisory policy implementation in the current macro-financial environment: a cross-sectoral journey," in Basel, Switzerland at 14:30 GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2017 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1970
Euro's anticipated rebound from 1.1916 yesterday's suggests early pullback from 1.1988 (Friday) has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen before corrective rise from last week's 1.1839 bottom heads to 1.1995, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.2029.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1916 signals said retracement from 1.1839 has ended and risk weakness to 1.1867/70 next.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with EU current account, construction output, EU ZEW sentiment, pay attention to Germany's Zew eco. sentiment at 09:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2017 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.71
Despite dlr's cross-inspired gain to a fresh 8-week high of 111.88, as near term upward momentum of recent rise from September's 10-1/2 month bottom at 107.32 is weakening, reckon upside would falter below 112.20 and yield a 'long-overdue' correction, below 111.15/18 signals temporary top is made and brings retracement to 1110.87/90 but 110.63 would contain weakness.

Only above 112.20 extends marginally but 112.40/50 would hold and yield decline later today or tomorrow.

Data to be released later today:
EU current account, construction output, ZEQ economic sentiment, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. current account, building permits, housing starts, import prices, export prices, redbook.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2017 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2016
Despite yesterday's anticipated rise to a 1-week high of 1.2006 and then intra-day break of this res in Asia, as near term upmove from last week's 1.1839 bottom is viewed as a correction of the decline from September's fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2093, choppy trading is seen ahead of FOMC's announcement and reckon pivotal res at 1.2059 would cap upside.

Below 1.1954 sup anytime signals said corrective rally has ended, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement towards 1.1916.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Wespac leading index, Germany producer prices, U.K. retail sales, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, existing home sales, Fed's interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2017 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.38
Dollar's retreat from Tuesday's 8-week high of 111.88 suggests range trading is likely to take place ahead pf FOMC announcement, a daily close below 111.21 (New York low) would confirm recent rise from September's 107.32 bottom has made a temporary top and bring a much-needed correction
to 110.63 and then towards 110.10/15 later this week.

Above 111.88 would extend marginal gain towards res at 112.20, however, 'loss of upward momentum' would prevent strong rise and reckon 112.40/50 would remain intact.

Ahead of key FOMC announcement at 18:00GMT and Fed Chair's press conference at 18:30GMT, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications n existing home sales.
Although the Fed is widely expected to leave rate unchanged, market is keen to see the so-called "dot plot" where FOMC members will make their own interest rate hike projections in coming months.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Sept 2017 05:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1880
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.2034 to as low as 1.1862 in post-FOMC New York session signals correction from last week's low at 1.1839 has ended there and early decline from September's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2093 would head to 1.1800/10 later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1954 'prolongs' choppy consolidation and risks stronger gain to 1.1990/00..
Although the Fed is widely expected to leave rate unchanged, market is keen to see the so-called "dot plot" where FOMC members will make their own interest rate hike projections in coming months.

Although EU consumer confidence (14:00GMT) is the only eco. data due out from the euro area countries, a number of ECB officials will be delivering speeches during the way starting with ECB's Smet at 06:55GMT, ECB's Praet at 09:30GMT n then ECB's President Draghi at 13:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Sept 2017 05:40 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1956
Although Wed's post-FOMC selloff from 1.2034 to as low as 1.1862 signals early correction from last week's low at 1.1839 has ended, yesterday's cable-led rebound to 1.1954, then intra-day break of this res suggests further choppy sideways swings would continue.

As long as 1.2000/10 holds, another fall to 1.1890/00 is likely but only below 1.1862 would bring re-test of 1.1839. Above 1.2000 would risk another rise towards 1.2034.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan's market holiday, Australia building permits.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. CBI industry trends survey.
Canada CPI, retail sales, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Sept 2017 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1930
Despite euro's gain to 1.2005 in Europe last Friday, subsequent weakness to 1.1938 in New York, then intra-day gap down to 1.1897 after Sunday's inconclusive election win by Germany's Merkel suggests price would continue to 'gyrate' inside recent 1.1839-1.2034 broad range.

As long as 1.2005 holds, downside bias remains for subsequent weakness towards last week's low at 1.1862 and only above 1.2005 risks possible re-test of 1.2034 later.

Data to be releasedtoday:
Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, leading indicator, coincident indicator.
Germany IFO business climate, IFO current conditions, IFO expectations.
U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Sept 2017 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.01
Despite dollar's initial rebound from 111.95 (New Zealand) to as high as 112.53 at Asian open due to broad-based usd strength caused my weakness in the euro and nzd, intra-day retreat suggests choppy trading below last Thurday's fresh 2-month peak at 112.72 would continue with downside bias, below 111.66 (Fri's low) would bring stronger correction towards next chart obj. at 111.12.

Only above 112.53 signals pullback from 112.72 over and risks possible re-test of said res level.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2017 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1860
Yesterday's intra-day selloff to a 3-week trough of 1.1833 in New York due to active selling in euro vs yen and Swiss franc on risk aversion following escalating U.S.-North Korea tension suggests recent decline from September's 20-month peak at 1.2093 would pressure price towards 1.1795 after consolidation, near term loss of momentum should prevent steep fall.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1900 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1935/45.
As Market has shown musted reaction to Monday's release of key German Ifo data, today's data will be ignored.

Pay attention to speeech by ECB's Makusch at 11:00GMT, then followed by ECB's Praet who will speak at second ECB Annual Research Conference organised by the ECB in Frankfurt at 12:00GMT but the topic is "Good Pension Design", so will not affect euro's move.