AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Aug 2017 09:05 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.95
Dollar's intra-day selloff in New York on Wed after dovish Fed minutes suggests 1st leg of correction from last Friday's near 4-month trough at 108.74 has ended at 110.95 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 110.40, reckon 110.00/05 would hold and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 110.40 defers bearishness and risks stronger gain to 110.60/65 but 110.95 should cap upside and yield another fall later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, capacity utilisation, industral n manufacturing output n leading indicators.
Last but not least, Dallas Fed President Kaplan (voter) will participate in a moderated Q&A session at the "Dialogue with the Dallas Fed" at 17:00GMT, then Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voter) will participate in a moderated Q&A session at 17:45 GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Aug 2017 05:25 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1728
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent 'erratic' decline from Aug's 1.1909 peak to a 3-week trough of 1.1663 after ECB minutes said policymakers showed concerns over recent euro's strength, subsequent rebound to 1.1753 in New York due to broad-based usd's weakness suggests low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1790/93.

Only below 1.1700/05 may risk weakness towards 1.1663, however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep the single currency above daily chart sup at 1.1614.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany PPI, EU current account, construction output, Canada retail sales, CPI, core CPI, and U.S. university of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Aug 2017 09:25 GMT

USD/JPY - 108.97
Dollar's intra-day weakness due to renewed safe-haven yen buying following Thursday's terror attacks in Spain suggests re-test of last Friday's near 4-month trough at 108.74 would be seen after consolidation, a daily close below there would yield re-test of 2017 bottom at 108.13 (April) later next week.

On the upside, only above 109.67/72 would 'prolong' choppy trading above said temporary low and may risk another bounce to 110.00/05, however, reckon 110.37 should cap upside.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with University of Michigan being the only data due out at 14:00GMT, street forecast is looking for an Aug reading of 94.0 vs previous reading of 93.4.
Then at 14:15GNT, Dallas Fed Kaplan (voter) will speak again where he participates in a moderated Q&A session at a conference in Dallas.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2017 05:05 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1755
Euro's anticipated rise to 1.1775 on Friday strongly suggests early correction from August's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.1909 has made a low at 1.0663 (Thursday) and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further subsequent gain to 1.1790/93, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1810/15.

Only below 1.1709 (Fri low) dampens current bullish scenario and may risk weakness to 1.1681/86 but 1.1663 should remain intact.

Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan all industry activity index, Germany Buba monthly report, U.S. national activity index and Canada wholesale sales on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2017 09:05 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.05
Despite dollar's resumption of recent cross-inspired decline to a 4-month bottom of 108.61 last Friday, subsequent rally to 109.59 in New York as news of firing of Trump's chief strategist had boost risk sentiment, suggesting temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store.
The lack of usd buying interest today is due to return of another geopolitical risk as a 10-day military exercise between S. Korea n the U.S. begins on Monday and any missile threat by N. Korea will inevitably lead to another bout of yen n chf buying, so traders are not keen to buy the greenback despite Friday's rally

Above 108.59 would bring stronger retracement to 109.85/95, however, reckon 110.37 should cap upside.
Only below 108.61 risks marginal weakness, 'loss of downward' momentum should keep price above 2017 trough (Apr) at 108.13.

U.S. eco. calendar is very thin today with National Activity index being the only data due out.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2017 05:15 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0821
Yesterday's anticipated rally from 1.1732 (Europe) to as high as 1.1828 in New York due to renewed broad-based usd's weakness suggests early correction from August's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.1909 has ended at 1.1663 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1890/92 after consolidation, near term overbought condition would cap price below said August's high.

On the downside, only below 1.1775 (Friday's high, now sup) would signal temporary top is made and may risk stronger retreat towards 1.1732 before prospect of another rise.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.S. President Trump to address the nation on Afghanistan, Swiss imports, exports, trade balance, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI industry trends survey, Germany ZEQWeconomic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada retail sales, and U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Richmond Fed composite index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Aug 2017 05:25 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1813
Euro's impressive rally from 1.1741 (Europe) to as high as 1.1823 yesterday due to upbeat German and EZ data together with broad-based usd's weakness in New York suggests re-test of this week's 1.1828 (Monday) high would be forthcoming soon, break would signal correction from August's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.1909 has ended and would head towards 1.2892 later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, only below 1.1770/75 'prolongs' choppy sideways consolidation but reckon 1.1741/46 sup would remain intact intact.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Aug 2017 02:05 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1795
Yesterday's relatively narrow move suggests further sideways swings would continue ahead of key speeches by Fed Chair Yellen and ECB's Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium later today and as long as 1.1741 sup holds, upside bias remains for re-test of this week's 1.1828 high (Mon), above signals correction from August's peak at 1.1909 has ended and price would head to 1.1845, then towards 1.1892 next week.

Only a daily close below 1.1741 would risk another fall but reckon last week's bottom at 1.1663 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Japan leading economic index, coincident index, France business climate, Swiss industrial production, U.K. GDP, BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive trades, and U.S. initial jobless claims, building permits, existing home sales, KC Fed manufacturing.
Fed Chair Yellen and ECB's Draghi will deliver key speech at Jackson Hole Symposium during New York session.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2017 05:05 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1922
Despite euro's spectacular rally to a 3-month peak of 1.1941 after ECB's Drgahi did not express concern on recent euro's strength, intra-day retreat from 1.1963 suggests temporary top is made and would bring choppy consolidation, as long as 1.1890/92 holds, marginal gain is still envisaged, near term loss of momentum should cap price below 'psychological' res at 1.2000.

Only below 1.1890 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.1865 but 1.1846 (Previous res, now sup) should contain weakness.

Economic data to be released today:
Italy consumer confidence, business confidence, EU money supply and U.S. wholesales inventories, goods trade balance, Dallas Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2017 09:35 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.19
Dollar's selloff from 109.85 due to broad-based usd's weakness in New York morning after transcript of Fed Yellen's Jackson Hole speech did not discuss monetary policy suggests early correction from August's 4-month bottom has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen but below said sup needed to extend recent decline to 118.30/40.

On the upside, only above 109.50/55 'prolongs' choppy trading and may risk another rise to 109.80/85 but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 110.00/04.

Later in the day, U.S. will release wholesale inventories, trade balance and Dallas Fed mfg index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 2017 05:35 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1968
Euro's intra-day marginal gain above Monday's fresh 30-mnth peak at 1.1983 to 1.1985 in Australia due to selloff in usd/jpy suggests price would extend recent upmove towards 'psychological' level at 1.2000 after consolidation.
However, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong rise and reckon 1.2030/35 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 1.1918 would indicate temporary top has been made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1880/90 later before prospect of a rebound.

Pay attention to release of German Gfk consumer confidence at European open and then later France's consumer spending and Q2 GDP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 2017 09:10 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.10
Dlr's spectacular rally from Tuesday's 4-1/2 month trough at 108.27 to 109.89 in New York, then intra-day break above there suggests further choppy consolidation above 2017 bottom at 108.13 would continue and upside bias remains for a correction of recent decline from 114.49 (July) to 110.65 (38.2% r).
However, reckon res at 110.95 should cap upside.

On the downside, only below 109.55 signals 1st leg of indicated retracement is over but 109.00/10 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Swiss UBS consumption indicator, KOF leading indicator, ZEW investor sentiment, U.K. nationwide house price, mortgage approvals, inflation report hearings, Italy consumer confidence, business climate, EU consumer confidence, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, Germany CPI, HICP.
Canada current account, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, PCE, GDP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Aug 2017 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1895
Yesterday's break of 1.1947 sup to 1.1881 after upbeat U.S. eco. data confirms euro's recent strong uptrend has made a top at Tuesday's fresh 30-month peak at 1.2070 and as long as 1.1947 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1823/28 would be seen later today or tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.1947 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risk stronger recovery to 1.1984/86 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia HIA new home sales, capital expenditure, building capex, New Zealand ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook.
U.K. GFK consumer confidence, France producer prices, CPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, CPI(EU Norm), Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, unemployment change, EU unemployment rate, CPI.
Canada GDP, and U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, initial jobless claims, Dallas Fed PCE, Chicago PMI, pending home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Sep 2017 05:10 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0909
Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from Tuesday's fresh 30-month peak at 1.3070 to 1.1824 at New York open, subsequent strong rebound after soft U.S. data and Treasury yields suggests 1st leg of correction is over and choppy sideways swings are seen ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report.

As long as res at 1.1984 holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 1.1824 but reckon 1.1774 sup would contain weakness and only above 1.1984 may risk stronger retracement to 1.2000/10 before another fall next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, GDP, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, , U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, ISM prices paid, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sep 2017 05:10 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1883
Despite euro's brief jump to 1.1979 after soft U.S. jobs data last Friday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1850 in New York session suggests recovery from 1.1824 (Thursday) has ended there and choppy swings are in store with downside bias, below 1.1824 would extend decline from last week's fresh 30-month peak at 1.2070 to 1.1780/90.

Only above 1.1947 would prolong choppy trading and may risk stronger gain to 1.1974/79 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released today:
Australia ANZ job ads, EU sentix index, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, Canada market holiday and U.S. market holiday on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sep 2017 05:10GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1895
Despite yesterday's sideways swings in holiday-thinned North American session, as euro's decline in post-NFP New York session from 1.1979 to 1.1850 on Friday suggests correction from last week's low at 1.1824 has ended, outlook remains bearish for decline from Aug's 30-month peak at 1.070 to resume after consolidation and head to 1.1780/90 later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1947 may risk stronger gain towards 1.1979 before prospect of another retreat.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand GDT price index, Australia AIG services index, current account balance, RBA interest rate decision, China Caixin China services PMI.
Swiss GDP, CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, and U.K. BRC retail sales, Markit services PMI.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, durable goods, factory orders on Tuesday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sep 2017 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1922
Although euro's early sharp decline from 1.1979-1.1850 in post-NFP New York session last Friday suggests correction from last week's low at 1.1824 has ended there, subsequent daily wild sideways swings signal price would continue to 'gyrate' inside this range ahead of Thursday's ECB's meeting.

As long as 1.1979 res holds, another fall is still envisaged but below 1.1850 needed to re-test 1.1824 whilst above 1.1979 would risk stronger retracement of early fall from August's 1.2070 peak to 1.2000/10 before prospect of a retreat.

Eco. data in the euro area countries is pretty light today. Germany will release industrial orders at 06:00GMT and then Italy's retail sales at 08:00GMT. ECB's Nouy will deliver a speech in Frankfurt at 07:55GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sep 2017 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.73
Dollar's intra-day weakness of continued safe-haven buying of yen suggests re-test of August's 108.27 low would be seen after consolidation, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness for weakness twowards 2017 bottom at 108.13 which may hold on 1st testing.

Only above 109.20 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger gain towards 109.54, however, reckon res at 109.84 should hold.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany industrial orders, Italy retail sales, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, BoC interest rate decision, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, redbook, Markit services, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Fed's Beige book.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sep 2017 05:10GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1922
Although euro's early sharp decline from 1.1979-1.1850 in post-NFP New York session last Friday suggests correction from last week's low at 1.1824 has ended there, subsequent daily wild sideways swings signal price would continue to 'gyrate' inside this range ahead of Thursday's ECB's meeting.

As long as 1.1979 res holds, another decline is still envisaged but below 1.1850 needed to re-test 1.1824 whilst above 1.1979 would risk stronger retracement of early fall from August's 1.2070 peak to 1.2000/10 before prospect of a retreat.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Austrailia AIG construction index, retail sales, trade balance, exports, imports, Japan coincident indicator, leading indicator.
Germany industrial output, France budget balance, current account, trade balance, exports, imports, U.K. Halifax house price, EU GDP, ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
Canada building permits, Ivey PMI, and U.S. initial jobless claims, nonfarm productivity.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Sep 2017 06:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2030
Yesterday's volatile rally to 1.2059 after ECB's Draghi repeated discussion on QE tapering in October's meeting suggests re-test of August's fresh 30-month peak at 1.2070 would be seen, above would extend Medium Term uptrend to 1.2100/10, however, loss of momentum has increased risk of a correction early next week.

Failure to re-test 1.2070 and subsequent break of 1.1985 sup would prolong choppy trading below 1.2070 and risk another fall towards 1.1930.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan current account, GDP, China exports, imports, trade balance, Japan Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, current account, trade balance, France industrial output, U.K. construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, goods trade balance, NIESR GDP, and Canada capacity utilization, employment change, unemployment rate.