AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jul 2017 02:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1435
Despite yesterday's initial gain to a fresh 14-month peak of 1.1490 in Europe, subsequent selloff after release of Fed Yellen's prepared statements to as low as 1.1392 due to broad-based long liquidation in the euro suggests long-overdue correction has occured and expect choppy consolidation to take place before prospect of another fall but 1.1330/40 should hold.

Only above 1.1460/70 may risk another rise towards 1.1490 but option barrier at 1.1500 is expected to cap euro's upside.

Data to be released on Thursday:
China exports, imports, trade balance, Germany CPI, HICP, France HICP, Swiss PPI, U.S. jobless claims, PPI and core PPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jul 2017 09:23GMT

USD/JPY - 113.04
The greenback's intra-day break of Friday's high at 114.18 suggests erratic upmove from June's trough at 108.82 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of May's peak at 114.37, break there would retain bullishness for 114.50/60.
However, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 111.79 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.37/40.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jul 2017 05:32 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1406
Despite yesterday's intra-day selloff in Europe from 1.1456 to 1.1371, subsequent brief bounce to 1.1418 on WSJ's report of ECB's tapering plan suggests 1st leg of correction from Wednesday's 14-month peak at 1.1490 has ended and choppy sideways swings with mild upside bias is seen ahead of key U.S. inflation data later before prospect of another decline.

Below 1.1371 would extend marginal weakness but daily sup at 1.1313 should hold.
Only above 1.1456 may yield another rise to 1.1480/90.

On the data front, Italy will release Jun CPI n trade balance, EU will also release its trade balance n financial markets in France are closed for a national holiday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jul 2017 05:24 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1472
Euro's rally to 1.1472 on Friday due to broad-based usd's weakness after lower-than-expected U.S. retail sales and CPI data suggests re-test of Wed's 14-month peak at 1.1490 would be seen after consolidation, however, above 1.1500 needed to retain bullish prospect of further headway towards 1.1530.

On the downside, only below 1.1418/24 (previous res, now sup) would 'prolong' choppy sideways trading and risks another fall to 1.1390/00.
The EU will begin long-awaited Brexit talk with Britain today (see early update for details) and the EU will release CPI data for June at 09:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jul 2017 02:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1477
Euro's anticipated gain to 1.1487 in New York yesterday suggests re-test of last Wed's 14-month peak at 1.1490 would be forthcoming soon and above 'psychological' 1.1500 level would encourage for Medium Term uptrend to head towards next daily chart obj. at 1.1530 later.

Only a firm break below 1.1435 would prolong choppy consolidation and risk weakness to 1.1400 but sup at 1.1371 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand CPI, China House Price Index.
UK RPI, CPI, PPI input, PPI output, DCLG house price.
U.S. export price, import price, redbook and NAHB housing market.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jul 2017 01:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1477
Euro's anticipated gain to 1.1487 in New York yesterday suggests re-test of last Wed's 14-month peak at 1.1490 would be forthcoming soon and above 'psychological' 1.1500 level would encourage for MT uptrend to head towards next daily chart objective at 1.1530 later.

Only a firm break below 1.1435 would prolong choppy consolidation and risk weakness to 1.1400 but sup at 1.1371 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac leading index, EU construction output.
UK inflation report hearings.
U.S. MBA mortgage, building permits, housing starts and Canada manufacturing sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2017 09:02 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.14
The greenback's fall below last Friday's low at 112.27 to 111.69 yesterday signals decline from July's near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.31 (50% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 110.95 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 112.87 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 113.58, then 113.73.

U.S. will later release mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts, if these housing data come in weaker than street forecast, then usd will be sold again b4 prospect of another recovery.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jul 2017 02:33 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1527
Although the euro remained on the back foot yesterday due to broad-based long liquidation of recent long euro positions ahead of Thursday's ECB policy meeting following Tuesday's rally to a fresh 14-month of 1.1584, as 1.1511 (New York) has contained weakness, consolidation with upside bias is retained.
However, near term 'loss of upward momentum' may cap price below 2016 peak at 1.1617.

A daily close below 1.1500 would confirm temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1472, then later towards 1.1435.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan imports, exports, trade balance, Australia NAB business confidence, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, outlook report, all industry activity, press conference.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU PPI, current account, UK retail sales and core retail sales.
ECB interest rate decision, consumer confidence, monetary policy statement and press conference, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jul 2017 09:08 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.28
The greenback's fall below last Friday's low at 112.27 to 111.69 yesterday signals decline from July's near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.31 (50% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 110.95 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 112.87 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 113.58, then 113.73.
Later in the day, U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims. Philly Fed survey and then leading indicators.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jul 2017 05:27 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1629
Yesterday's spectacular post-ECB rally from 1.1480 to a 22-month peak of 1.1658 after ECB's Draghi hinted future of QE in Autumn suggests medium-term uptrend would resume after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price well below 2015 high at 1.1715 and risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place soon.

Below 1.1584 (previous top, now sup) anytime confirms temporary high has been made and yields retracement to 1.1530/40.

Data to be released on Friday:
UK PSNB, PSNCR, Italy retail sales, Canada retail sales, core retail sales, CPI and core CPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jul 2017 09:04 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.74
The greenback's marginal fall below Wednesday's low at 111.56 to 111.48 yesterday signals decline from July's near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.31 (50% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 110.95 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 112.87 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 113.58, then 113.73.

No U.S. eco. data is due out today, so funds flow will have a greater impact on intra-day price swings, however, as dlr moves closely in tandem with U.S. bond yields, so one can take cue from intra-day price swings of the benchmark 10-year yield, TGIF.....

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jul 2017 02:22 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1668
Despite euro's marginal rise above last Fri's fresh 22-month high of 1.1682 to 1.1684 at Asian open due to renewed weakness in dlr/yen, lack of follow-through buying and intra-day pullback suggests consolidation is in store, reckon 1.1617 sup would contain retreat and yield resumption of MT uptrend twd 2015 peak at 1.1715.

Only below 1.1617 confirms temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1484 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released today:
Japan Nikei manufacturing PMI, coincident index, leading economic index.
France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI
Canada wholesales MM, and U.S. manufacturing PMI, services PMI, existing homes sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jul 2017 05:15 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1640
Although yesterday's intra-day retreat from Asian 23-month peak at 1.1684 suggests recent strong uptrend has made a minor top, as 1.1626 in New York has contained weakness, consolidation with upside bias is retained, above said res level would encourage for subsequent gain towards 205 high at 1.1715.

On the downside, only a daily close below minor sup at 1.1617 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1584, however, reckon 1.1660/65 would hold from here.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan BoJ monetary policy minutes, France business climate, PPI MM, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, Germany IFO business climate, IFO current conditions, IFO expectations, U.K. CBI industrial trends survey MM.
U.S. Redbook sales, CS home price, monthly home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jul 2017 09:33 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.28
The greenback's intra-day fall below last Friday's low at 111.02 to 110.64 yesterday signals decline from July's near 4-month peak at 114.49 remains in progress and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 110.56 (61.8% retracement of rise from 108.13).
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 109.63 this week and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 112.42 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a stronger gain to 112.87, then 113.58.

The FOMC will start its 2-day meeting today and as no press conference is scheduled, market wide expects it to be a non-event, so dlr is unlikely to make further upside gain.
However, pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. data later in the day starting with Redbook retail sales, CS home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed mfg index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2017 05:21 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1643
Despite yesterday's anticipated rise to a fresh 23-month high of 1.1512 in New York morning, failure to re-test 2015 peak at 1.1715 and subsequent strong retreat due to upbeat U.S. data and rising Treasury yields suggests Medium Term uptrend has formed a temporary top and range trading is in store ahead of FOMC policy statements later today.

As long as 1.1617/26 sup area holds, upside bias remains but above 1.1612/15 needed to extend gain towards 1.1752, a daily close below 1.1617 may risk stronger correction towards 1.1684.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France's consumer confidence, then the same from Italy as well as business confidence.
ECB's Board member Lautenschlager will give a speech in Berlin at 15:30GMT followed by ECB's Nowotny at 16:00GMT in Vienna.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2017 09:34 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.71
Despite the greenback's intra-day fall below last Friday's low at 111.02 to 110.64 Monday, subsequent rebound signals decline from July's near 4-month peak at 114.49 has made a temporary bottom there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for a stronger retracement towards 112.42, above would add credence to this view and extend marginally.
However, 112.87 would remain intact ahead of today's FOMC rate decision.

On the downside, only below 111.34 (previous resistance) would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended and turn outlook bearish for weakness towards 110.64 again.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, business confidence, U.K. mortgage approvals, GDP, inflation report hearings, and U.S. mortgage applications, new home sales, Fed monetary policy statement, Fed interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jul 2017 05:23 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1723
Despite yesterday's initial weakness to 1.1614 on profit taking in the euro in European morning, subsequent anticipated break of 2015 peak at 1.1715 in post-FOMC New York to 1.1748 in Australia today has justified our recent bullish stance on the single currency and outlook remains mildly bullish for euro to extend further gain, near term loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1800 and risk has increased for a correction to take place.

Below 1.1656 anytime confirms temporary top is in place and yield stronger retracement twd 1.1614/17 before prospect of another rise next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, and U.S. initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, goods trade balance, durable goods, national activity index, KC Fed manufacturing activity.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jul 2017 02:28 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1685
Despite a brief jump in thin Asian lunch session yesterday to a near 2-1/2 year high of 1.1777, subsequent stronger-than-expected decline to 1.1651 due to broad-based usd's short-covering rally in New York session suggests temporary top has been made and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store.

As long as this week's low at 1.1614 holds, prospect of another rebound remains but 1.1777 should cap upside.
A daily close below 1.1614 would risk stronger correction to 1.1584, then 1.1561/65.

Data to be released on Friday:
U.K. consumer confidence, Japan household spending, CPI, unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia PPI, France GDP, consumer spending, CPI, Germany import price, Swiss KOF indicator, EU consumer confidence, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, service sentiment, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada GDP and U.S. employment wages, employment benefits, employment cost, GDP, employment cost index, Michigan consumer sentiment, PCE, GDP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jul 2017 09:07 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.10
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after Wednesday's selloff from a New York high at 112.20 to 110.78 in Asia yesterday on the back of yesterday's slightly dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy statement and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals recovery from Monday's low at 110.64 has ended there, downside bias remains for decline from July's peak at 114.49 to resume and yield re-test of said support, break, 110.20/24 later.

On the upside, only above 111.72 (previous support) would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 112.08, then 112.20 again.

On the eco. data front, France will release prel. GDP, CPI n consumer spending, then EU will release consumer confidence, business climate, eco. n industrial sentiment n last but least, at 12:00GMT, Germany will release CPI n HICP data.
Pay attention to release of key U.S. prel. Q2 GDP, PCE n employment cost at 12:30GMT, then University of Michigan July's consumer confidence. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voter) will deliver at speech at townhall event at 17:20GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx July 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jul 2017 05:02 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1744
Euro's strong rebound to 1.1763 in post-GDP New York trading on Friday signals pullback from last Thursday's near 2-1/2 year peak at 1.1777 has ended at 1.1651 and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of said temp. top, break would extend Medium Term uptrend to 1.1800/10.
However, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain today.

On the downside, below 1.1690/00 would 'prolong' consolidation and risk another corrective fall towards 1.1651 later.

Data to be today:
New Zealand building permits, activity outlook, business confidence, Japan industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Australia new home sales.
Germany retail sales, Italy unemployment rate, U.K. consumer credit, mortgage approvals, inflation report hearings, EU unemployment rate, CPI, Italy CPI.
Canada PPI and U.S. PMI, pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.