AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1321
Euro's rebound from a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1265 Wednesday suggests medium-term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) has made a temporary low and initial consolidation is seen before another fall, while loss of dowanward momentum would keep price above 1.1215/20 and bring correction.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1332 risks stronger retracement to 1.1357, break, 1.1385 later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand inflation forecast.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and KC Fed manufacturing index.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:18 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.10
Although dollar's strong retreat from Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 (New York), then 113.89 today suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is in store, reckon 113.76 would contain weakness and bring rebound but above 114.97 needed to extend gain to 115.30/35.

Only a daily close below 113.76 risks stronger retracement to 113.00/10 before prospect of another rise next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand inflation forecast, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and KC Fed manufacturing index.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1364
Euro's rebound to 1.1374 Thursday on usd's broad-based retreat suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Wednesday's fresh 16-month trough at 1.1265, as long as res at 1.1385 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1315 signals recovery over and yields re-test of 1.1265 next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1385 risks stronger retracement to 1.1434/38 on Monday.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time:19 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 1114.43
Although dlr's fall fm Wed's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 in tandem with US yields, then 113 .89 yesterday suggests recent uptrend has made a temp. top, subsequent rise to 114.48 Thu signals 1st leg of correction over n 'choppy' trading is in store.

Sell on recovery to 114.45 for 113.80 or buy there for 114.45. Only below 113.66 risks 113.31/36

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1282
Despite resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1250 Fri due to Covid concerns in Europe, subsequent short-coveriing rally to 1.1322 in New York would bring choppy range trading, reckon 1.1350/60 would cap recovery and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1265 signals recovery over, however, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1220/30 today.

Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.15
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1243
Euro's break of last Friday's 1.1250 low to a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1231 in New York Monday due to rally in U.S. yields and usd on news of Fed Powell's renomination suggests medium-term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) remains in force, however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1169/74.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1291 signals temporary trough is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1322.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Market Holiday,.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Richmond Fed manufacturing.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.62
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator from the U.S. is Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1244
Despite euro's marginal weakness to a fresh 16-month trough at 1.1227 in Asia Tuesday, subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1274 in Europe suggests temporary low is made and as long as 1.1291 res holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for another fall, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1280/85.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1291 confirms temporary bottom is in place and brings stronger retracement to 1.1340/45.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia construction work done, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, New Zealand interest rate decision.
Swiss investor sentiment, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment and new home sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.89
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Later today, we have data dump from the U.S. due to Thur's Thanksgiving holiday, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to Q3 GDP as well as PCE price (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), if actual readings are higher than forecast, then expect U.S. yields to rise as well as the greenback.
Last but not the least, if you are still awake, we have release of previous FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, however, market is expecting hawkish minutes.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1210
Despite euro's break of Tuesday's 1.1227 low to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1187 in New York Wednesday, subsequent rebound suggests consolidation is in store before downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) resumes, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1139.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1227 confirms a temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1260/70.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.32
The greenback's rally this week to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday on renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for a second term and hawkish comments from central bank officials suggests Medium Term uptrend would head to 115.90/00 after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 116.20/30 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1217
Although euro's rebound from Wed's 16-month trough at 1.1187 to 1.1230 yesterday's suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1200/05 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1155 can't be ruled out, reckon res at 1.1274 should cap upside and yield another fall.

Below 1.1200 would bring re-test of 1.1187, while loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1139 and bring correction on Monday.

The euro area countries will be releasing a slew of eco. data n we also have many ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session, please refer to our EI page for full details. ECB President Lagarde will speak at a legal conference at 08:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.08
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia retail sales.
Swiss non-farm payrolls, GDP, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
Canada budget balance.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Euro's impressive rally on Fri from 1.1206 to as high as 1.1330 in New York suggests downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) has made a temporary low at Wed's fresh 16-month 1.1187 bottom and despite intra-day retreat, as long as 1.1255 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another rise, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1374 and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1255 signals recovery is over and heads back towards 1.1206.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to various EU's sentiment readings at 10:00GMT. We also have several ECB officials scheduled to speak, pay attention to speeches by ECB Vice President de Guindos at 08:30GMT n later ECB President Lagarde at 17:15GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.33
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be today:
Japan retail sales, Australia business inventories.
Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Swiss current account, producer prices.
US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1289
Although euro's retreat on Monday to 1.1259 (New York) suggests 1st leg of correction from last Wednesday's 16-month trough at 1.1187 has ended at 1.1330, subsequent rebound in New York signals consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1330 would bring stronger retarcement of recent downtrend, however, reckon res at 1.1374 should cap said corrective rise.

A daily close below 1.1255 indicates retracement is over, then price would head back to 1.2206, break, 1.1187 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan unemployment rate, industrial production, construction orders, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia building permits, current account, net exports contribution, China NBS manufacturing PMI.
Swiss KOF indicator, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy GDP, CPI, Germany unemployment rate, EU HICP.
Canada GDP, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 112.73
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data n we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to release of Chicago PMI n consumer confidence. Fed chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen testify before a Senate Banking Committee hybrid hearing at 15:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 01 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1323
Despite euro's selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 in New York on Tuesday after Fed Powell's hawkish comments, subsequent strong rebound signals further choppy trading above Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1187 may continue, however, as long as said Tuesday's high holds, consolidation with downside bias remains.

On the upside, only a daily above 1.1382 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend but reckon 1.1434 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG manufacturing index, manufacturing PMI, GDP, New Zealand building permits, China caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
U.K. BRC shop price index, nationwide house price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits and Markit manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 01 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.40
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to market-moving ADP private payrolls, then Market mfg PMI, ISM mfg index n last but not least Fed's beige book.
Fed J. Powell will tesitfy again at Capital Hill but market reaction to more of his hawkish remarks is likely to much smaller after Tue's move.