AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 03 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.87
Despite the greenback's retreat from 114.44 (Monday) to 113.47 in Europe yesterday, subsequent rebound on renewed usd's strength to 114.00 (AUS) today suggests further choppy trading above last Thursday's 2-week bottom at 113.26 would continue, above 114.13 would yield re-test of 114.44, break extends towards October's 3-year 114.69 peak.

On the downside, only below 113.47 risks weakness to 113.26 but 113.01/05 should hold.

On the data front, U.S. will releae a slew of data, please refer to our EI page for details, pay attention to US ADP payrolls, then Markit services PMI n duarbale goods order.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1615
Despite euro's intra-day brief dip to 1.1563 on Fed's bond tapering announcement Wednesday, subsequent rally to 1.1616 after Fed Powell's dovish comments suggests choppy trading above last Friday's 2-week low at 1.1535 would continue until release of Friday's key U.S. jobs report.

As long as 1.1669 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains but below 1.1563 needed for weakness towards 1.1535.
Only a daily close above 1.1669 would risk re-test of last week's 1.1692 peak (Thursday).

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan services PMI, Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, Markit services PMI, Swiss consumer confidence, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices, U.K. Markit construction PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.03
Despite dollar's retreat from 114.44 (Monday) to 113.47 Tuesday, subsequent rebound and then intra-day marginal gain above Wed's post-FOMC high at 114.21 on renewed usd's strength further choppy trading above last Thursday's 2-week 113.26 bottom would continue with upside bias, above 114.44 would bring re-test of 114.69, break, 115.00 later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.73 risks weakness to 113.40/47 but 113.26 should hold.

Ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report, we have a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to weekly jobless claims and labor costs at 12:30GMT, a better-than-expected reading will push US yields higher n in turn, usd/yen also.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1551
Despite euro's bounce to 1.1616 Wednesday, subsequent selloff n break of last week's 1.1535 low (Friday) to a 3-week bottom at 1.1529 Thursday on broad-based usd's strength suggests correction from 1.1525 (October) has ended and re-test of said support is seen after consolidation, below yields further weakness to 1.1490.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1598 would signal low is made and bring stronger retracement to 1.1616, 1.1664/69.

On the data front, we have data dump from the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details, pay attention to German industrial output n EU's retail sales. We also have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.78
Despite the greenback's retreat to 113.52 in New York yesterday, intra-day rebound to 113.86 suggests further choppy trading inside recent 114.69-113.26 range would continue ahead of today's U.S. jobs report release and above 114.00/05 may head to 114.27/31, however, said upper level would remain intact and yield pullback later.

On the downside, only a daily close below said 113.26 support would revive daily bearishness for weakness towards 113.01, then 112.70/80

Economic data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending.
U.K. Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, France industrial output, Italy retail sales, EU retail sales.
U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1566
Euro's rebound from Friday's 15-month trough at 1.1514 to 1.1573 on renewed usd's weakness due to selloff in US yields despite upbeat US jobs report suggests Mid Term erratic decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with mild upside bias remains, however, reckon 1.1600/10 would hold and yield retreat but below 1.1514 is needed for further weakness toward 1.1500, 1.1475/80.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1620/25 would yield stronger retracement to 1.1664/69 later.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator due out is EU's Sentix investor confidence at 09:30GMT.
We have Eurogroup meeting today n a no. of ECB officials scheduled to speak in European seesion, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB President Lagarde will participate at Eurogroup meeting at 11:01GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.51
Despite the greenback's retreat to 113.52 in New York yesterday, intra-day rebound to 113.86 suggests further choppy trading inside recent 114.69-113.26 range would continue ahead of today's U.S. jobs report release and above 114.00/05 may head to 114.27/31, however, said upper level would remain intact and yield pullback later.

On the downside, only a daily close below said 113.26 support would revive daily bearishness for weakness towards 113.01, then 112.70/80.

Data to be released today:
Japan coincident index, leading indicators, machine tool orders.
Swiss unemployment rate and EU Sentix index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1585
Although euro's intra-day rise on Monday from 1.1551 (Europe) and then break of Friday's 1.1573 high to 1.1594 (New York) confirms recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Friday's 15-month bottom at 1.1514 and mild upside bias remains for stronger retracement, overbought condition would prevent strong gain above res area at 1.1616/25 and yield decline later today or Wednesday.

On the downside, below 1.1551 anytime signals recovery is over and yield re-test of 1.1514.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance.
U.K. BRC retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. PPI and redbook.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 112.86
The greenback's fall below previous support at 113.26 to 113.09 yesterday on dollar's broad-based weakness and intra-day break below there suggests decline from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 remains in progress and further weakness towards 112.30/40 would be seen. However, oversold condition would keep price above 112.00/10 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the upside, only above 113.31 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 113.66/70 later this week.

On the data front, U.S. will release core PPI n PPI at 13:30GMT plus redbook retail sales. We have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak, please refer to our EI page for details. Fed chair J. Powell will give pre-recorded opening remarks before virtual Conference on Diversity and Inclusing in Economics, Finance and Central Banking co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and European Central Bank at 14:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1592
Although euro's gain to 1.1608 (New York) yesterday suggests corrective rise from Friday's 15-month bottom at 1.1514 may extend marginal gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum is likely to limit upside to 1.1625/35 and yield strong retracement of said upmove.

On the downside, a daily close below Tue's 1.1571 low signals correction has possibly ended and heads back to 1.1525/35 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output.
Canada leading index, U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Federal budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
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AceTraderFx Nov 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time:10 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.09
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent erratic decline from Oct's 3-year peak at 114.69 to a 4-week trough of 112.73, subsequent bounce to 112.11 (New York), then intra-day brief break above there on rally in U.S. yields suggests temporary low is made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a long-overdue retracement towards 113.66 objective.

Only below 112.73 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would limit downside to 112.45/50.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Although market is paying attention to U.S. CPI n core CPI at 13:30GMT, a higher-than-expected reading may give the buck a temporary lift, as Fed's J. Powell has repeatedly said recent rising trend in inflation is 'transitory', only consistent upbeat U.S. jobs report would push the Fed to start hiking rates early next year.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Nov 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time:11 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.07
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.01 on upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

No U.S. economic data is due out as U.S. markets and Canada are closed for Veterans Day and Remembrance Day holiday respectively. So one may expect intra-day trading to quieten down after European midday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1445
Euro's break of previous 1.1514 support to 1.1477 Wednesday, then yesterday's fall to a fresh 15-month bottom of 1.1444 in holiday-thin New York suggests Mid Term decline from 20210 peak at 1.2349 (January) would extend to 1.1405/10 after consolidation but reckon 1.1383 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1514 signals a temporary bottom is made and retracement to 1.1571/74 is seen.

On the data front, we have a slew of eco. indicators from the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details. We also have ECB's Chief Economist Lane participating at a workshop conference at 13:50GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time:12 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.03
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.01 on upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

Data to be released later:
Swiss producer/import price, EU industrial production, U.S. University of Michigan sentiment and JOLTUS Job openings.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1454
Euro's marginal weakness to a fresh 15-month bottom at 1.1434 Friday suggests Medium-term decline from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) would resume after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent steep fall today and reckon 1.1400/10 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1500 signals a temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1520/30 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released today:
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. Rightmove house price, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:15 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.90
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.30 on Friday due to upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

The only U.S. eco. data due out is New York Fed manufacturing (market is keenly awaiting Tuesday's retail sales), traders will take cue from intra-day move in US 10-year yield after early rally from last Tuesday's 6-week low at 1.415% to 1.592% on Wednesday (circa 1.5545%).
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1376
Euro's selloff in New York session below Fri's 1.1434 low (now res) due to broad-based euro's weakness and rally in usd in tandem with U.S. yields to a 16-month trough of 1.1357 suggests recent downtrend would pressure price lower after consolidation, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1291 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1434 signals temporary low is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1461/63 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan tertiary industry activities, New Zealand GDT price index.
U.K. Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI, Italy CPI, EU employment, GDP.
Canada housing starts, U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time:16 Nov 2021 09:30GMT


USD/JPY - 114.17
The greenback's intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday's high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday's bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October's 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data & today's retail sales is the most important indicator for the week.
Street forecast for October m/m retail sales to come in at 1.2% vs prev. reading of 0.7%, a stronger-than-expected number would push US yields higher as well as the greenback.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1318
Euro's selloff and break of Monday's 1.1357 low to a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1309 in New York yesterday due to usd's rally in tandem with U.S. yields after robust US retail sales suggests recent downtrend would pressure price lower after consolidation , however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1256 today and yield a much-needed minor correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1385 (Tue high) signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1434 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand PPI, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, trade balance, DCLF house price index, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts and Canada CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,782
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time:17 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.82
The greenback's intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday's high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday's bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October's 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.

After Tuesday's key U.S. retail sales, U.S. will later release 2nd-tier MBA mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts. However, we have a large number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.