AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 04 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1607
Although intra-day firm break of 1.1607/10 suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary 14-month trough at 1.1563 and marginal gain can't be ruled out, near term overbought condition should cap price below 1.164 (previous sup, now res) should hold and yield decline later today or tomorrow.

Below 1.1583/93 anytime signals recovery over, then euro would extend medium-term downtrend towards projected target at 1.1536.

Eco. calenar is pretty light with EU's Sentix investor sentiment being the only data due out at 08:30GMT.
There is a Eurogroup as well as EcoFin meeting today.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Oct 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.19
Despite the greenback's fall from last Thursday's fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.88 in New Zealand today, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.48, reckon 111.70/80 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released today :
China Market Holiday.
Swiss CPI, retail sales, EU Sentix index.
Canada building permits, U.S. durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders and durables ex-transport on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1615
Although yesterday's rally above previous 1.1607/10 res (now sup) to 1.1640 in New York signals recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Thursday's 14-month bottom at 1.1563, a daily close above 1.1664 needed to bring stronger retarcement to 1.1690/00 before retreat.

A daily close below 1.1607 signals correction has ended, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1583/88, break yields re-test of 1.1563 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, services PPI, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, Japan Tokyo CPI, China Market Holiday.
France industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, GDP, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada trace balance, exports, imports and New Zealand GDT price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.12
Despite the greenback's fall from last Thursday's fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York yesterday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.48, reckon 111.70/80 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to Markit services PMI n ISM non-mfg index.
Richmond Fed President Barkin and Fed's Quarles will be speaking in New York session.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1593
Euro's decline from 1.1640 (Monday) to 1.1581 yesterday suggests correction from September's 14-month trough at 1.1563 has ended and medium-term downtrend would head towards projected target at 1.1536 after consolidation.

On the upside, only above 1.1613 prolongs choppy sideways swings and risks re-test of 1.1640, however, reckon 1.1664 (previous sup, now res) would cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
China market holiday, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
Germany industrial orders, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and ADP employment change.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.57
Despite the greenback's fall from last Thursday's fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York on Monday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.81, reckon 111.95/00 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.

On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications n then ADP private employment change, a stronger-than-expected read will push the greenback higher. We also have Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) speaking at 13:00GMT and then 15:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1556
Euro's break of Sep's 1.1563 low (now res) Wednesday to a fresh 14-month 1.1530 low on safe-haven usd buying suggests Medium Term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) would test 1.1500 handle, break would extend weakness to proj. obj. at 1.1473 before correction occurs.

Trade from short side for this move n only above 1.1581 signals temp. low made, risks 1.1613 later.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia AIG services index, China Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Swiss unemployment rate, U.K. Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and Canada Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Oct 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.34
Despite the greenback's fall from last Thursday's fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York on Monday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy suggests the first leg of correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 111.81, reckon 111.95/00 would remain intact and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 110.88 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.

U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims.
We also have New York Fed President William and Cleveland Fed President Mester scheduled to speak at 12:40GMT and 15:45GMT respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1557
Although euro gained respite on Thursday after hitting a fresh 14-month bottom at 1.1530 Wednesday, as 1.1571 has capped recovery, downside bias remains for medium-term downtrend to test psychological 1.1500 handle, however, 'loss of downward momentum' is likely to limit weakness to 1.1470/75.

Only a daily close above 1.1571 (soft U.S. jobs report perhaps) risks stronger correction to 1.1613, reckon this week's high at 1.1640 (Monday) should remain intact.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data n we also have some ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session too, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to speech by ECB President Lagarde when she and U.S. Treasury Yellen will speak at a B20 International Business Summit event in Italy.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.95
Despite the greenback's fall from last Thursday's fresh 19-month peak at 112.07 to 110.83 in New York on Monday, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with U.S. yields and cross-selling in jpy to 111.99 today confirms the correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a re-test of aforesaid resistance, break would extend Medium Term upmove towards 112.50/60 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 111.21 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term uptrend towards 110.79, then 110.54 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan all household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current, China caixin services PMI.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
U.S. Non-Farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and housing starts.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1573
Despite euro's brief jump to 1.1585 on Friday after a big miss in U.S. payrolls, lack of follow-through buying and subsequent sideways move suggests as long as said post-NFP high holds, downside bias remains for re-test of last Wed's fresh 14-month trough at 1.1530, then weakness to 'psychological' 1.1500 handle.

Only a daily close above 1.1585 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend to 1.1613, however, reckon res at 1.1640 should cap upside this week.

Economic calendar is pretty light with Italy's industrial output being the only data due out.
We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session (please refer to our EI page for details).
Pay attention to ECB President and ECB's Panetta who are participating in the IMF/World Bank Group annual meetings.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 112.89
Dollar's intra-day impressive rally above Friday's post-NFP New York high at 112.25 to a 2-1/2 year peak at 112.84 on active cross-selling in yen suggests price would head to 113.25/35, overbought condition should cap dollar below 113.50.

Only a daily close below 112.25 (now sup) signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement to 112.90/00.

Data to be released today:
Japan machine tool orders.
U.K. NIESR GDP estimate, Italy industrial output.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada Market Holiday on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1549
Despite yesterday's marginal gain above Friday's post-NFP 1.1585 high to 1.1587 (Europe), subsequent retreat to 1.1550 near Monday's close suggests correction from last Wednesday's 14-month bottom at 1.1530 has ended and recent downtrend would head towards psychological 1.1500 handle, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.1473.

On the upside, only above 1.1587 risks stronger retarcement towards 1.1613 but res at 1.1640 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU ZEW survey expectations, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, wholesale price index.
Canada leading index, U.S. redbook and JOLTS job openings.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2021 09:15GMT

USD/JPY - 113.36
The greenback's rise to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 113.49 in Asian morning due partly to active cross-selling in jpy suggests Medium Term upmove remains in progress and further gain towards 113.78/80 would be seen after consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 114.00/10 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 112.72 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.10/20.

On the data front, U.S. will release second-tier JOLTS job openings. We have Fed's Clarida (voter) n Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) scheduled to speak at 15:15GMT n 16:30GMT respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1592
Euro's retreat from 1.1624 (Europe) to 1.1585 in New York yesterday suggests early corrective rise from Tuesday's fresh 14-month trough at 1.1525 has possibly made a top and consolidation with downside bias is in store, a firm break of 1.1585 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of 1.1525 early next week.

Only a daily close above 1.1624 risks stronger retracement of medium-term downtrend to 1.1640, however, reckon 1.1664 would cap upside and yield decline.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, China retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activities.
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan Sentiment and Canada wholesale trade.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.13
The greenback's intra-day firm break above Wednesday's fresh near 3-year peak at 113.80 signals Medium Term uptrend remains in progress and further gain towards 114.55 would be seen after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 114.74/75 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 113.22 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.80/90 before prospect of a rebound.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Sep retail sales n University of Michigan consumer confidence at 12:30GMT n 14:00GMT respectively. We also have St. Louis Fed president Bullard (non-voter) n NY Fed President Williams (voters) speaking in NY session.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

Despite Friday's sideways swings following early retreat from Thursday's 9-day high of 1.1624, as long as 1.1575/80 holds, corrective rise from 1.1525 may yield marginal gain, loss of momentum would cap price below 1.1664 and yield decline.

A daily close below 1.1571 signals recovery is over and brings re-test of 1.1525 later.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries today. We have ECB Board member de Cos scheduled to speak at a financial conference at 09:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,137
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74
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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Oct 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.28
Intra-day choppy swings after retreat from Fri's 3-year peak at 114.46 to 114.00 in New York suggests consolidation may continue before prospect of further gain, however, loss of momentum should cap dollar below 'psyhcological' 115.00 today and yield a minor correction.

On the downside, only below 114.00 indicates temporary top has been made and risks stronger retracement towards 113.64 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand CPI, China industrial output, retail sales, GDP.
U.K. Rightmove house price.
Canada housing starts, U.S. industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output and NAHB housing market index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,137
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1618
Euro's rebound from Monday's 1.1572 low suggests re-test of last Thursday's 1.1624 high would be seen, however, as corrective rise from last Tuesday's 14-month bottom at 1.1525 is losing momentum, reckon 1.1664 (previous sup, now res) would cap upside and yield decline later today.

A daily close below 1.1572 signals correction is over and heads back towards 1.1525.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook, New Zealand GDT price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,137
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.02
As intra-day dollar's broad-based weakness on return of risk sentiment has pushed price briefly below 114.00 sup, suggesting recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Friday's 3-year peak and consolidation with downside bias remains for a correction, near term oversold condition would keep price above 113.34.

On the upside, only above today's 114.35 high signals pullback has ended and heads to 114.74 later.

U.S. will release a slew of second-tier eco. data n we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later today, pls refer to our EI page for details.