AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 02 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1841
Yesterday's rally from 1.1794 (Europe) and then break of Tue's 1.1847 top to 1.1856 on downbeat U.S. private payrolls and falling U.S. yields suggests recent upmove from Aug's bottom at 1.1664 remains in force, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below Jul's peak at 1.1909 ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1810 signals temporary top is in place and would head back to 1.1784, then later, 1.1735/45.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Swiss CPI, retail sales, GDP, EU producer prices.
U.S. producer prices, international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports and imports.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.00
Despite the greenback's gain to 110.41 in Europe yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.89 in New York following the release of poor U.S. private payrolls suggests recent upmove from 109.12 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.60, then 109.42. However, said bottom should hold on 1st testing and yield a much-needed recovery later.

On the upside, only above 110.41 would revive bullishness for a re-test of August's peak at 110.79, break needed to extend uptrend from 108.73 (August) towards 110.90/00 later.

Ahead of Fri's blockbuster U.S. NFP, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details, pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims, then durable goods n factory orders.
We also have Atlanta Fed President Bostic n S. Francisco Fed's Daly (both 2021 FOMC voters) speaking at 17:00GMT n 19:00GMT respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 03 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

UR/USD - 1.1882
Euro's intra-day break of Thur's near 1-month high of 1.1875 at Asian open on continued usd's weakness suggests recent upmove from Aug's bottom at 1.1664 remains in force and may head towards 1.1909 (Jul's peak), above needed to retain bullishness for further headway to next chart objective at 1.1975 later next week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1856 would be the first signal temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for a much-needed retracement to 1.1835, then to 1.1784/94.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to German n EU's Markit services PMIs, a better-than-expected number would boslter this week's bullish sentiment on the euro.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
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AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 03 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.95
Despite the greenback's gain to 110.41 in Europe on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.89 in New York following the release of poor U.S. private payrolls and then to 109.80 today on news of Japan PM stepping down suggests recent upmove from 109.12 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.60, then 109.42. However, said bottom should hold on 1st testing and yield a much-needed recovery later.

On the upside, only above 110.41 would revive bullishness for a re-test of August's peak at 110.79, break needed to extend uptrend from 108.73 (August) towards 110.90/00 later.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG construction index, services, PMI, Kapan services PMI, China caixin services PMI.
France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Canada labor productivity.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1879
Euro's intra-day sideways swings are hitting a 1-month high of 1.1908 on Friday after a huge miss in U.S. payrolls suggests consolidation would continue in Asia before recent upmove resume, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.1975.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1856 signals temporary top is in place, then risk is seen for a stronger retracement to 1.1835, then later towards 1.1794.

Although market is expected to be quiet in Euroepan afternoon as markets in U.S. n Canada are closed for Labor Day holiday, pay attention to release German industrial orders and then EU's Sentix index at 06:00GMT n 08:30GMT respectively, if actual readings are better than forecast, the euro would extend further gain.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.89
Despite the greenback's gain to 110.41 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.60 in New York on Friday following the release of poor U.S. non-farm payrolls suggests recent upmove from 109.12 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.42. However, said bottom should hold on 1st testing and yield a much-needed recovery later.

On the upside, only above 110.41 would revive bullishness for a re-test of August's peak at 110.79, break needed to extend uptrend from 108.73 (August) towards 110.90/00 later.

Data to be released this week :
Germany industrial orders, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU Sentix index on Monday.
Markets in U.S. and Canada are closed for holiday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1877
Although euro's retreat to 1.1856 (Europe) yesterday after hitting a 1-month peak of 1.1908 in post-NFP New York on Friday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, intra-day rebound at Asian open on Tuesday has retained bullishness for marginal gain, however, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below daily res at 1.1975 ahead of Thursday's ECB monetary policy meeting and yield correction.

Only a daily close below 1.1856 risks stronger retracement to 1.1835, then later to 1.1784/94.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia AIG services index, China exports, imports, trade balance, Australia RBA interest rate decision, Japan coincident index, leading indicator, New Zealand GDT price index.
U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan all household spending, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, U.K. Halifax house prices, EU employment, GDP, ZEW survey expectations
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
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AceTraderFx Sept 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.97
Despite the greenback's gain to 110.41 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.60 in New York on Friday following the release of poor U.S. non-farm payrolls suggests recent upmove from 109.12 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.42. However, said bottom should hold on 1st testing and yield a much-needed recovery later.

On the upside, only above 110.41 would revive bullishness for a re-test of August's peak at 110.79, break needed to extend uptrend from 108.73 (August) towards 110.90/00 later.

Although U.S. markets will re-open after Mon's Labor Day holiday, as no eco. data is due out, traders may take cue to movement in U.S. stocks and U.S. yields.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1847
Yesterday's break of 1.1856 low to 1.1838 due to broad-based usd's strength on the back of rally in U.S. yields suggests recent upmove from August's 1.1664 bottom has made a temporary top at Friday's 1-month peak at 1.1908 and stronger retracement is seen, however, near term, o/sold condition should keep price above 1.1757 (61.8% r from 1.1864).

On the upside, only above 1.1884/86 res signals pullback has ended and yields re-test of 1.1908 later today or tomorrow.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan current account, trade balance, GDP, Eco watchers outlook, Eco watchers current.
France non-farm payrolls, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, redbook, JOLTS job openings, Canada BoC interest rate decision and Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.15
Despite the greenback's gain to 110.41 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.60 in New York on Friday following the release of poor U.S. non-farm payrolls suggests recent upmove from 109.12 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.42. However, said bottom should hold on 1st testing and yield a much-needed recovery later.

On the upside, only above 110.41 would revive bullishness for a re-test of August's peak at 110.79, break needed to extend uptrend from 108.73 (August) towards 110.90/00 later.

On the data front, U.S. will release second-tier data, please refer to our EI page for details. New York fed President Williams (voter) will speak at 17:10GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1815
Yesterday's anticipated weakness to 1.1803 suggests euro's recent upmove from August's 9-1/2 month bottom at 1.1664 has formed a temporary top last Friday at 1.1908 and strong retracement of said move is envisaged, however, a daily close below 1.1757 (61.8% r) needed to signal correction is over and yield further weakness next week.

Only a firm break above 1.1856 (ECB's hawkish hold perhaps) signals pullback has ended, then risk would shift to the upside for re-test of 1.1908.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand manufacturing sales.
U.K. RICS housing price balance, China PPI, CPI, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, EU ECB refinancing rate, deposit rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.91
Dollar's intra-day decline due to active safe-haven yen buying on continued weakness in global stocks suggests recent erratic rise has made a temporary top at Wednesday's 3-1/2 week peak at 110.44 and below 109.60 sup would bring further weakness towards 109.42, however, reckon 109.12 should remain intact.

On a daily close above 110.15 signals pullback is over, outlook would improve for re-test of 110.44, then gain towards August's peak at 110.79 later next week.

U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims.
Last but not least, we have an army of Fed officials (8 in total!) scheduled to speak ahead of next week's blackout ahead of September 21-22 FOMC meeting, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,137
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74
Hong Kong
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AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1825
Despite euro's retreat from 1.1841 to 1.1806 yesterday's after ECB said it will slow its bond buying operation, subsequent recovery suggests further sideways swings above this week's 1.1803 low (Wednesday) would continue, as long as 1.1856 (Monday' low, now res) holds, decline from last Friday's 1-month peak at 1.1908 would pressure price lower, however, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.1757 (61.8% r of 1.1664-1.1908).

Only a daily close above 1.1856 signals pullback is possibly ended and risks gain to 1.1884/86, break would yield re-test of 1.1908 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand retail sales.
Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NISER GDP estimate, France industrial output, Italy industrial output.
U.S. PPI, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada capacity utilization, employment change and unemployment rate.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.88
Yesterday's cross-inspired decline to 110.63 in New York due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from 109.12 has made a top at Wednesday's 3-1/2 week peak of 110.44 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 109.42, however, reckon 109.12 should remain intact.

Only above 110.15 indicates pullback is over, then risk is seen for subsequent re-test of 110.44 later next week.

T.G.I.F. after a roller-coaster week (dlr rose on Mon from 109.63 to 110.44 yesterday and only to fall back to exactly where it started !), U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to PPI n core PPI at 12:30GMT.
We also have Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 13:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1809
Euro's retreat from 1.1850 (Europe) to 1.1810 near New York close Friday on renewed usd's strength due to risk-off sentiment and intra-day break there suggests recovery from last week's 1.1803 low has ended and decllne from September's 1-month high at 1.1908 would resume, however, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price well above 1.1757 and bring correction.

Only a daily close above 1.1850 dampens bearishness on euro but break of 1.1884/86 res needed to yield re-test of 1.1908 later this week.

The only eco. data due out today is Germany's wholesale price index. ECB board member Panetta will participate in G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies' meeting n ECB's Schnabel will speak at a conference at 09:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.12
Despite last Thursday's cross-inspired decline to 110.63 in New York due to safe-haven yen buying, subsequent rebound to 109.99 Friday and intra-day break above there suggests the pullback from Wednesday's peak at 110.44 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend recent upmove from 109.12 towards 110.70/80.

On the downside, only below 109.80 would indicate a temporary top has been made instead and risk weakness towards 109.63 later this week.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand food price index, Japan corporate goods price.
Germany wholesale price index.
U.S. Federal budget on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1811
Despite Monday's anticipated resumption of recent decline from September's 1-month peak at 1.1908 to a 2-week trough of 1.1771 ahead of New York open, subsequent rebound in New York morning to 1.1817 on broad-based usd's retreat due to falling U.S. Treasury yields suggests said fall has made a temporary low and consolidation is in store.

As long as res at 1.1850 (Friday high) holds, downside bias remains for another decline but reckon 1.1735 would contain weakness. A daily close above 1.0850 signals pullback from 1.1908 has possibly ended and risk would shift to upside for gain to 1.1884/86, then re-test of 1.1908 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, house price index, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer/import price.
Canada leading index, manufacturing sales, U.S. CPI and redbook retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.03
Despite last Thursday's cross-inspired decline to 110.63 in New York due to safe-haven yen buying, subsequent rebound to 109.99 Friday and intra-day break above there suggests the pullback from Wednesday's peak at 110.44 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said resistance, break would extend recent upmove from 109.12 towards 110.70/80.

On the downside, only below 109.80 would indicate a temporary top has been made instead and risk weakness towards 109.63 later this week.

Market is awaiting the most important U.S. eco. data at 12:30GMT today, the CPI, pay attention to y/y number for Aug, estimate is 5.3% vs prev. reading of 5.4%, a higher-than-expected figure to raise expectation of Fed's tapering at next FOMC meeting on Sep 21-22 meeting n would send usd higher across the board n the flip side may happen if actual reading is lower then 5.0%.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,137
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74
Hong Kong
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AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Sept 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1802
Euro's intra-day decline from 1.1845 to 1.1800 in hectic New York trading on Tuesday suggests recovery from 1.1771 (Monday) has ended and recent fall from Sep's 1-month peak at 1.1908 would resume after consolidation, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1735/40.

Only above 1.1850/51 res dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger gain toward 1.1884 before prospect of retreat later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activity, Australia consumer sentiment, China industrial output, retail sales.
Germany wholesale price index, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, France CPI, Italy CPI, EU industrial production, labour costs.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, New Yotk Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index and Canada CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,137
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Sept 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Sept 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.35
Dollar's selloff from Tuesday's high at 110.15 to 109.53 due to the release of soft U.S. inflation data suggests early upmove from 109.12 has ended at 110.44 in Sep and intra-day break below there suggests bearishness is retained for a re-test of aforesaid support, break would extend decline from August's peak at 110.79 marginally, however, support at 108.73 should remain intact and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.60/63 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.99/00, then 110.15/20 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to industrial production, capacity utilization n mfg output at 13:15GMT, if actual readings are weaker than forecast, then expect US yields to fall further n more yen buying vs usd, euro n sterling.