AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1836
As euro's intra-day 'wild' swings in New York session had ended with price falling sharply from 1.1899 to 1.1834 on hawkish comments by Fed's Vice Chair Clarida, suggesting early correction from July's 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 would add credence to this view, 1.1771/73 later.

Only a move above 1.1899 risks one more rise, however, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below 1.1944 ahead of Fri's key U.S. jobs report.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, France industrial output, U.K. Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC Vote Cut.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 05 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.61
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to the usual weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Fed Governor Waller (voter) will speak on "Central Bank Digital Currency" before an virtual event at 14:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 06Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1826
Despite moving in relatively narrow range on Thursday, euro's weakness to 1.1829 (Europe), then intra-day break there suggests early correction from July's 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended last week at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 (upbeat U.S. jobs report perhaps) would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 1.1753.

Only above this week's 1.1899 high (Wednesday) shifts risks to upside for re-test of 1.1909, break would extend said corrective upmove to 1.1940/44.

On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of economic data in European morning, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.76
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending coincident index, leading indicator, China export, import, trade balance.
Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, Non-Farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy industrial output.
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment change, and Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1753
Euro's selloff on Fri to 1.1754 after upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) would be seen after consolidation, oversold condition would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.1655/65 should remain intact.

Only above 1.1800 signals temporary low is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1829.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports, trade balance n current account, then EU's Sentix investor sentiment.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.20
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released today:
China PPI, CPI, Swiss unemployment rate.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1737
Yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1736 (New York) suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) is in the cards, however, break there needed to retain bearishness for further weakness towards next daily objective at 1.1603 later this week.

On above Monday's 1.1768 high signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1808/18.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia NAC business conditions, NAC business confidence.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 10 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia NAC business conditions, NAC business confidence.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 11:Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1718
Euro's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1710 (New York) suggests price would briefly penetrate 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March), however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1650/55 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1742 signals temporary low is in place and yields stronger retracement to 1.1768 but 1.1808 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI and Federal Budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.76
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

On the data front, this week's market focus is today's U.S. inflation data, CPI and core CPI (see our EI page for details), a higher-than-expected reading will send U.S. yields and the greenback higher.
On Fedspeak, we have Atlanta President Bostic (voter) and Kansas City Fed President George (non-voter) speaking at 16:00GMT n 18:00GMT respectively.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1741
Despite resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month low of 1.1707 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1753 due to broad-based long liquidation in usd after in-line U.S. CPI data suggests temporary bottom is made and consolidation is seen before re-test of 2021 trough at 1.1705, loss of momentum would limit weakness to 1.1675/85.

Only a daily close above 1.1768 res will risks stronger correction to 1.1819/29 later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, inflation forecast, Japan corporate goods price, Australia consumer inflation
U.K. RICS housing price balance, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, Italy trade balance, EU industrial production, U.S. jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and PPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.40
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released on Thursday:
U.K. RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, Italy trade balance, EU industrial production.
U.S. jobless claims, continuing jobless claims and PPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1736
Despite euro's narrow move in subdued Thursday's session following rebound from Wednesday's fresh 4-month trough at 1.1707 to 1.1753, outlook remains bearish for re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705, loss of momentum should keep price above projected sup at 1.1653.

Only a daily close above 1.1768 (Monday's high) dampens bearish outlook and risks stronger correction to 1.1819/29 early next week.

On the data front, euro are countries will release a slew of second-tier eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.27
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan tertiary industry activity.
France ILO unemployment rate, CPI, Germany wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price, EU trade balance.
U.S. import prices, export prices and University of Michigan sentiment.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1795
Fri's rally above previous res at 1.1768 to 1.1804 in New York due to broad-based usd's weakness after downbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests medium-term downtrend has made a low at Wed's fresh 4-month bottom at 1.1707 and further gain is envisaged after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price at 1.1857.

Only a daily close below 1.1768 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk decline towards 1.1724.

Data to be released next week :
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization, industrial output, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
U.K. Rightmove house price.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.36
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 in August, subsequent rally to 110.79 last Wednesday on usd's continued strength suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.19 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Economic calendar in the U.S. is very light with New York Fed mfg index being the only data due out at 12:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1776
Although euro's rebound from last Wed's 4-month trough at 1.1707 to 1.0804 (Friday) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, Monday's sideways swings would bring further consolidation before one more rise, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1857.

A daily close below 1.1753 signals correction is over and risks weakness to 1.1724, break, 1.1707 again.

The euro zone will release a slew of eco. data at 09:00GMT including Q2 GDP, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.34
Dollar cross-inspired selloff from last Wednesday's 1-month peak at 110.79 to as low as 109.12 yesterday suggests early upmove from 108.73 (August low) has ended there and downside bias remains for further weakness, break of 108.73 needed to extend weakness towards 108.35 later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.75 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger gain to 110.03.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan tertiary industry activity.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU construction output, employment, GDP.
Canada housing starts, U.S. retail sales, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, industrial production, business inventories, NAHB housing market index and New Zealand GDT price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1709
Euro's intra-day brief break of previous 2021 low at 1.1705 to 1.1703 in Australia suggests medium-term downtrend would resume after minor consolidation and a daily close below 1.1700 handle would pave the way for price to head towards next chart objective at 1.1603 (2020 November low).

Only above 1.1761 indicates temporary low is in place and may risk stronger correction to 1.1790/00 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand PPI inputs, PPI outputs, RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, EU HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts and Canada CPI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
4,049
9
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Aug 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 Aug2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.65
Dollar cross-inspired selloff from last Wednesday's 1-month peak at 110.79 to as low as 109.12 on Monday suggests early upmove from 108.73 (Aug low) has ended there and downside bias remains for further weakness, break of 108.73 needed to extend weakness towards 108.35 later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.75 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger gain to 110.03.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to U.S. CPI, a higher-than-expected reading would push the greenback higher.
Last but not least, the Fed will later release previous FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, a hawkish sounding minutes will obviously trigger usd buying.