18th May 2022 – Gold is still lagged behind the demand of USD and higher yields

Walid Salah Eldin

Master Trader
Feb 15, 2016
Nikkei 225 came under pressure following better than expected Q1 flash figure has shown yearly contraction by only 1% while the consensus was referring to shrinking by 1.8%, after 4.6% yearly expansion in Q4 has been revised down to only 3.8%.

The index capitalized on the figure send its up rally higher above 27000, before taking profit sent it to 26750 until now, while USDJPY is still consolidating above 129 but close to it, after finding support at 127.50.

EURUSD is still trading close to 1.535, capable to hold its scored gains on hawkish remarks from ECB Governing Council members raised the single currency interest rate outlook.

After the Dutch ECB member said that raising the interest rate by 0.5% is not excluded.

GBPUSD could also keep trading close to 1.2465, capitalizing on UK labor report release which has shown lower than expected ILO unemployment rate coming at 3.7% and -56.9 claimant count change which the median forecast was referring to only -38.8k.

The bullish employment figures came with also higher than expected Average Earnings Including Bonus at 7% year on year while the market was waiting for yearly rising by only 5.4%, after 5.6% increasing in March paving the way for further tightening to curb the wages inflationary pressure.

While the market is waiting ahead today to know more about the inflation pressure over the producing level and also the consuming level.

Last MPC meeting the BOE chief indicated that there can be growth downside risks because of the current tightening path the central bank adopted to contain the prices pressure.

Andrew Bialy’s comment sent GBP down, following BOE expected decision to raise rate by 0.25%, as it has shown higher than expected appreciation from BOE of growth could tackle its current tightening cycle.

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments came yesterday with not change to mentioned. He ensured on the current 0.5% pace of tightening as an appropriate pace on hiking the Fed fund rate to anchor the current exceptional high rate of inflation and he expected voting on this scale in the next 2 meeting before changing this scale later on the economy needs.

While some other members see that raising rate to neutral stance between 2.25% and 2.5% is important for now and later, we can talk about adjusting the scale on the economic developments such as Charles Evans the Fed governor of Chicago who signaled this week the need to harry up in raising rates currently.

While the most hawkish one is still St Louis Fed President FOMC member James Bullard who voted last meeting solely for raising rate by 0.75% and suggested the interest rate to reach 3.5% at the end of this year.

UST yield rose again to 3% level, while gold came under renewed pressure, following that series of Fed Governors’ speeches which ensured on nearly 95% priced scale of tightening in the money market.

Have a good day

Kind Regards

Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Walid Salah El Din