Many forms of Technical Analysis, Book Analysis
..
My view is that we need to be specific. Technical Analysis (TA)
takes many forms from the trivial (SMA) to the much more
interesting.
Price Pattern analysis has a lot of promise, but involves a
bit of intelligence in recognizing tradable patterns.
In Forex, my work for several years has been TA using the
Depth of Market, also known as "The Book" as the basis for
predicting short term trend. Let's call this "Order Flow
Analysis" in Forex which yields "leading indicator"
prediction. Here's why:
My hypothesis is that "Market Makers" or major "Liquidity Providers"
drive the markets. Yes, "fundamentals" dominate long term
price but, in the short term there is a considerable "envelope"
of price movement within which Day Trading occurs. Market
Makers have a plan where they will be moving price, and the
task of Technical Analysis (TA) is to get "clues" as to where
they plan to move, BEFORE the moves take place.
So Trend continuation, as well as Trend Pivot is discoverable by
analyzing "The Book" which falls into the area of "Order Analysis"
or perhaps Order Flow Analysis.
So, if Market Maker drives the market, and we are "doomed" to
follow, then we need to "read the mind" of Market Maker to discover
"before" the moves take place, where MM intends to move the
Price next.
I can show that this is predictive of price movement, which is a
"leading indicator", and that is what traders need to have. I attach
a screenshot showing an example of this prediction of Price movement,
which is based ONLY on analysis of patterns on the Depth of Market.
In the image, this is Raw Price, with Bid/Ask reflected to the right hand
axis. The left hand axis is an "oscillator" Market Bias. When Bias is
elevated, price is predicted to rise. As you can see, it has strong
predictive value, at least 15 minutes before the Rally takes place.
And this is at a Support level, so we are asking ourselves, "will price
break under support, or will it bounce off support." It bounced, and
rallied.
HyperScalper