Daily Financial News & Fundamental Analysis

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Gold to Rise as Crude Oil Declines if US Jobs Data Disappoints

All eyes are on the US Employment reportinto the end of the trading week. Expectations call for the economy to add 140,000 jobs in April, marking an improvement from the paltry 88,000 increase recorded in March. A relatively supportive outcome is likely to mollify “spring swoon” fears and boost risk appetite, cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices higher. In the FX space, the US Dollar is likely to find support as traders play up the Fed’s readiness to adjust the size of monthly asset purchases downward in line with improving economic developments, creating de-facto downward pressure on gold and silver amid ebbing anti-fiat demand.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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ECB Cuts its Euro-Zone Growth Forecast, Attributes Rate Cut to Inflation
The European Central Bank lowered its growth forecast for 2013 to -0.4% from a previous estimate for 0% growth, and the growth forecast for 2014 was cut from 1.1% to 1%. Furthermore, this year’s inflation forecast was cut to 1.7% from 1.8%, and inflation for 2014 is now forecasted at 1.6%. The ECB’s monthly bulletin further said that risks to Euro-zone economic growth remain to the downside, while the risk to inflation is balanced.
The comments from the May bulleting largely matched Draghi’s comments following this month’s monetary policy decision to cut the interest rate by 25 points to 0.50%. The bulletin said the lower inflation, reported at a three year low of 1.2% in April, allowed the ECB to cut the interest rate. The bulletin further said that lowering borrowing costs will help a recovery later in the year. The bulletin further said that monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as needed.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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British Pound Short Trade Held into BOE Rate Decision
The monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Mervyn King and company are forecast to the size of the asset-purchase program unchanged at 375 billion. UK economic news-flow has cautiously improved relative to economists’ expectations since April’s sit-down of the rate-setting MPC committee. Furthermore the Bank extended its Funding for Lending (FLS) scheme late last month, limiting the scope for further action in the near term. A status-quo result seems firmly entrenched in investors’ baseline outlook however, meaning such an outcome unlikely to yield a dramatic response from the British Pound. With that in mind, we remain short GBPUSD.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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US Dollar Rally Unfazed by a Japan GDP Beat
The US Dollar has continued to rally in the Asian and European sessions, and the main victims of the USD rally have been the New Zealand and Australian Dollar. However, there was no obvious new catalyst to provide reasons for NZD/USD and AUD/USD declines.
Overnight, we found out that the Japanese gross domestic product rose 0.9% in the first quarter of 2013, beating expectations for the GDP to only rise 0.7% and up from the revised 0.3% economic expansion seen in Q4. However, the Yen continues to hover near 102.50 against the US Dollar, which was cr
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Euro Falters as 1Q GDP Disappoints, Pound Rebounds on BoE

Euro: EZ 1Q GDP Disappoints, H&S Continues to Pan Out
The Euro slid to a fresh monthly low of 1.2874 as the region’s 1Q GDP report showed the growth rate contracting 0.3% versus forecasts for a 0.1% decline, and the prolonged recession may continue to drag on the exchange rate as it fuels speculation for additional monetary support.
As the euro-area struggles to return to growth, the European Central Bank (ECB) may come under increased pressure to further embark on its easing cycle, and we may see a growing argument to purchase Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. At the same time, negative interest rates may also turn into a real option for the Governing Council amid the ongoing turmoil in the periphery countries, and the central bank may continue to push into uncharted territory as the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Forex: Dollar Avoids Tumble but Market More Critical of Fed’s QE3 Talk
There was a bevy of Fed speakers this past session, but growing support of ‘tapering’ the central bank’s stimulus program (QE3) didn’t seem to generate much additional strength for the greenback. While speculators are certainly tuned into the serious consequences should the policy authority turn the boat around, we may have reached a saturation level where the dollar bulls and risk bears need a material escalation of this threat / opportunity. Looking over the highlights from the newswires Thursday, we see clear support for pulling back on the stimulus that has spurred moral hazard and watered down the value of the greenback. The Fed’s Plosser called for an easing of the purchases starting in June and full stop by year end, Williams echoed those sentiments and Fisher took it further discussing the risks the program was inviting. These are compelling comments. The only problem is that these FOMC members aren’t voters. They can only influence from the sidelines. The majority of those that are weighing in on US monetary policy are far more reserved and neutral. Should a key ‘fence-sitter’ like Bernanke, Dudley or Yellen support the cause; it would probably represent the kind of escalation that finally cracks moral hazard in benchmarks like the S&P 500.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Euro Finds Strength Despite Significant Decline in Construction Output
The US Dollar rally has continued for another day, again finding the most strength against the risk correlated Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. However, the Euro is trading higher against the green back at the time of this writing, following three days of EUR/USD declines.
The most optimistic news out of Europe today was the announcement that EU new car registrations rose 1.7% in April, which was the first rise in car sales in nineteen months. However, on a more pessimistic note, construction output in March declined by 1.7% (seasonally adjusted), following the 0.3% in decline in February. Neither release seemed to have a significant effect on Forex trading.
 

ituglobal

Master Trader
Apr 17, 2013
515
31
69
One thing to note as well: All eyes on Cable as there is going to be some power shift in the Bank of England very soon. For the first time in the history of England, someone who is not their citizen would become governor of the Bank of England.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
0
Euro Euphoria to Fizzle on ECB- EU Looks to Buy More Time
Euro: EU Pledges to Combat Unemployment, ECB to Remain Accommodative
The Euro climbed to an overnight high of 1.2954 asEuropean Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn pledged to do whatever it takes to combat record-high unemployment, but it seems as though the European Central Bank (ECB) will come under increased pressure to further support the monetary union as Mr. Rehn anticipates monetary policy to remain accommodative.
However, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble argued that the Governing Council should not keep interest rates low for an extended period of timeas the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support, and we may see the EU make further attempts to buy more time as the group struggles to meet on common ground.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Gold May Rise as Fed Dents QE3 Reduction Bets
Gold Technical Analysis (Spot) - Prices broke above resistance in the 1375.16-77.33 area and completed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting at further gains ahead. Initial resistance is at 1401.63, with a break above that targeting 1421.26. Alternatively, a reversal back beneath 1375.16 exposes 1340.31.

While the Fed is not in close proximity to the thresholds it set on unemployment and inflation expectations in December, concerns about the market structure implications of a buying $85 billion in paper each month have started to seep into official commentary.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Yen to Extend Gains as US Data Underpins QE3 Reduction Bets

The Japanese Yen soared in overnight trade, adding as much as 2.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as risk aversion gripped Asian stock exchanges and prompted an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index slid 3.6 percent in a move the newswires chalked up to hints of near-term QE3 reduction from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI report. Figures from HSBC suggested factory-sector activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in seven months in the world’s second-largest economy.
 
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candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
0
Yen to Extend Gains as US Data Underpins QE3 Reduction Bets

The Japanese Yen soared in overnight trade, adding as much as 2.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts, as risk aversion gripped Asian stock exchanges and prompted an unwinding of carry trades funded in the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index slid 3.6 percent in a move the newswires chalked up to hints of near-term QE3 reduction from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and a disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI report. Figures from HSBC suggested factory-sector activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in seven months in the world’s second-largest economy.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Dollar Rallies after Fed Talks QE3 Exit, Will EUR/USD Break 1.2800?

The markets have sought out guidance on the future of the Federal Reserve’s QE3 plans to shape their speculation, and that is exactly what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the FOMC minutes offered. Tentative but tangible commentary about the eventual reduction in the current $85 billion-per-month program spurred the traditional ‘risk aversion’ move from the capital markets. For the S&P 500, an intraday reversal tore the index from fresh record highs to a dangerous shift in momentum that threatens a deeper rollover. Leading the safe havens – and a direct victim of the supply-and-demand elements of the US money supply – the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker = USDollar) surged above 10,850 to its highest level since July 2010. These are both meaningful developments, but they don’t exactly confirm conviction just yet. Just like a technical breakout does not necessarily guarantee a lasting trend, a fundamental volatility swell does not ensure a systemic shift in capital.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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European and Japanese Inflation Data in Focus; Canada Waits on BoC, GDP
Bank holidays in the United Kingdom and the United States on Monday have dampened trading conditions to start the week, but overall, the last week of May should be exciting nevertheless once full liquidity returns. Of note, we’re watching risk trends in Japanese financial instruments develop, given the sell-off of JGBs and the Nikkei at the end of last week, culminating in the USDJPY’s worst single day performance in over two years.
This week, the growing theme that everyone should be focused on is the issue of deflation – or in most cases, disinflation – that’s been plaguing the world’s developed economies. German, broader Euro-zone, and Japanese inflation gauges are due this week, and given the intense focus on inflation in these regions (Germany and the Euro-zone are afraid of it; Japan can’t get enough of it), volatility around these data releases is highly likely.
North America isn’t to be forgotten, with the government reading of consumer sentiment in the US due out on Tuesday, with the first revision to the 1Q’13 US GDP report on Thursday. Straddling these US data releases are two important Canadian events, the first being the Bank of Canada Rate Decision on Wednesday, and finally the 1Q’13 and March GDP reports due out on Friday (Canada reports m/m, y/y, and annualized once per quarter).
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
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Crude Oil, Gold Set Sights on US Consumer Confidence Data

Cycle-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are trading cautiously higher amid a broad-based recovery in risk appetite. A quiet European economic calendar shifts the spotlight to May’s US Consumer Confidence report, where sentiment is expected to print at the highest in six months.
S&P 500 index futures are trading firmly higher ahead of the figure despite its presumed implications for a speedier reduction in Fed stimulus provision, which only last week seemed to unnerve investors. With that in mind it will be curious to watch traders’ reaction once the outcome crosses the wiresas a benchmark for the markets’ preferred interpretation take on the US business cycle
If markets opt to view an improvement in consumer sentiment through in terms of its implications for stimulus, a stronger outcome may undermine risk appetite and weigh on shares along with crude oil and copper. Alternatively, if investors read such an outcome in terms of the supportive role a stronger US recovery would play in underpinning global growth, the opposite result can be expected.
The likely response to stronger US data from the precious metals space seems a bit less ambiguous.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
0
Australian Dollar Looks to RBA, US Jobs Data for Direction

The Australian Dollar found itself under pressure once again last week as shifting monetary policy expectations continued to undermine demand for the high-yielder. The sharp swoon in the AUDUSD exchange rate since the beginning of May has been accompanied by a brisk narrowing of the yield spread between benchmark US and Australian 10-year bond yields. This implies an Aussie-negative realignment of investors’ perceptions of relative returns to be had from holding one currency over the other. That spread hit the lowest level since early February 2009 last week, sending AUDUSD downward to yield the weakest close since October 2011.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
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Euro to Rally as ECB Fails to Implement Negative Rates

The Euro was a top performer this week despite flashes of excessive volatility – the EURUSD saw prints close to $1.3100 and 1.2800 – as a slight uptick in data coupled with general anxiety over several of the single currency’s counterparts allowed gains to be found. To be clear: the Euro-zone economic picture is still horrid, with the region’s Unemployment Rate hitting 12.2% in April, an all-time high; while the youth Unemployment Rate (25 years old and under) continue to skyrocket, now at 62.5%. Certainly, there is a social crisis resulting from the economic crisis, an issue that will become more prevalent in the coming months as the US economy trends higher – on a relative basis, making Europe look that much worse.
Luckily for the Euro, issues outside of the region are garnering a great deal more attention at present time, affording it the opportunity to continue to post sizeable gains against the commodity currencies especially. Political tensions have been reduced to a low simmer in recent weeks, as the global economy seemingly waits around for the German elections in September because, let’s face it, there aren’t going to be any substantive shifts in the core’s stance on austerity until Angela Merkel can be sure that she retains her chancellorship.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
0
Euro: ECB’s Draghi Says Economic Situation Remains Challenging

The Euro is giving back the overnight advance to 1.3042 even as the economic docket showed manufacturing in Europe contracting at a slower pace during the month of May, and the single currency may continue to track lower ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting as the Governing Council remains poised to carry its easing cycle into the second-half of the year.
Prior to the interest rate decision, ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the economic situation in the euro-area remains challenging as the region remain mired in recession, and warned that monetary policy cannot substitute for structural reforms as the EU scales back its push for austerity.
Although the ECB is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, the central bank may show a greater willingness to implement additional rate cuts in order to shore up the ailing economy, while the Governing Council may come under increased pressure to introduce more non-standard measures as the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
0
Euro and Pound Rise Despite Decline in European Equities

It’s a slightly paradoxical European Forex trading session so far this Monday, as the Euro and Pound are both trading higher against the US Dollar, but European equities and bonds are showing risk-off aversion. GBP/USD is trading 0.44% higher and the Euro is trading 0.18% higher, but the FTSE, CAC, and DAX equity indexes are all trading at least 0.70% lower.
The incongruence seen in the markets may be due to expectations for the upcoming Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions this week. The better than expected manufacturing PMI’s released in today’s session may provide reason for the ECB to not further cut its interest rate or for the BoE to not add to its quantitative easing.
 

candle7779

Banned
Sep 27, 2012
352
0
0
Results of 10 round of "Master Scalper"
Position Account Number Contestant Login Balance
1 2709233 Mary 8 075.20
2 2710738 Fabi32rm 7 884.24
3 2710721 pabl 4 985.33
4 2708721 raju 2 195.15
5 2707630 malaikat 1 820.75
6 2706960 Andoff 1 795.00
7 2707444 owis 1 714.00
8 2707640 westline 1 707.91
9 2710323 hello 1 413.41
10 2707652 QTrader 1 394.74
May, 31 2013. 23:00 terminal time - Demo