AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1637
Yesterday's rally in NY session on broad-based usd's weakness due to market hopes of U.S./China trade talk suggests early correction from August's 1.1734 peak has ended at Tuesday's 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1526 and upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1690 after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.1565/70 sup, possibly on dovish ECB Draghi's comments at today's post-ECB press conference, suggests correction over and risks weakness to 1.1526/30.

Ahead of ECB's rate decision, we have Germany's final CPI data and the same from France.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Sept 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.44
Despite yesterday's retreat from Australian high at 111.65 to 111.12 in New York on soft U.S. PPI data, intra-day rebound suggests consolidation with upside bias remains and above said resistance would bring re-test of 111.83. Above would indicate upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has resumed and extend towards daily resistance at 112.15, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 112.40/50, yield correction.

On the downside, only below 111.12 would indicate near term rise from 110.38 has made a temporary top there instead and risk stronger weakness towards 109.95/00.

Data out later on Thursday :
Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, Swiss producer/import price, UK BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corp bond purchases, EU ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, initial jobless claims, Federal budget, and Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1690
Euro's impressive rise from 1.1609 (Europe) to 1.1701 yesterday's due to rally in the Turkish lira as well as soft U.S. CPI data suggests re-test of August's 1.1734 peak would be forthcoming soon after minor consolidation in Asia.
However, loss of momentum should cap price below July's high at 1.1791.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1659 (last week's top, now sup) confirms temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1609.

On the data front, Italy will release CPI, then EU's trade balance and labour costs.
We also have 2 ECB officials delivering speeches during European morning starting ECB Smets in Brussels at 07:00GMT and ECB's Nowotny in Vienna at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.86
The greenback's rally yesterday inspite of weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI and subsequent break of previous resistance at 111.83 to 112.08 suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has finally resumed and a re-test of 112.15 (August) is forthcoming, break would extend marginally.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 112.39/40 today and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 111.12 would indicate near term rise from 110.38 has made a temporary top there instead and risk stronger weakness towards 109.95/00.

Data out later on Friday :
Italy CPI, EU trade balance, labour costs, and U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1632
Despite last week's strong rise from 1.1526 (Monday) to as high as 1.1722 on Friday in European morning, subsequent selloff to 1.1619 due to renewed usd's strength on trade tensions suggests choppy trading below Aug's peak at 1.1734 would continue with downside bias for retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1565/70, however, 1.1526 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 1.1685/90 signals pullback is over and yield another rise back towards 1.1722.

On the eco. data front, Italy will release trade balance, then important EU inflation data.
We have 3 ECB officials delivering their speeches today starting with ECB's Coeure 09:00GMT, ECB's Praet at 10:15GMT and ECB's Mersch at 12:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.91
The greenback's rally last week and subsequent break of previous resistance at 112.15 to 112.17 Friday suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has finally resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for 112.39/40, above would extend marginally.
However, over bought condition would keep price below 112.70/80 today and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 111.12 would indicate near term rise from 110.38 has made a temporary top there instead and risk stronger weakness towards 109.95/00.

Data out later :
UK Rightmove house price, Japan market holiday, Italy trade balance, EU HICP, and U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1674
Yesterday's rally from 1.1618 (Europe) to 1.1698 in NY due to renewed usd's weakness suggests pullback from Friday's 4-week high at 1.1722 has ended and re-test of August's peak at 1.1734 is likely after consolidation, break would extend recent upmove to 1.1750/60 later.

Intra-day retreat after Trump announced more trade tariffs on China would bring sideways trading before up and only below 1.1618 shift risks to downside for stronger retracement to 1.1565/70.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia house price index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK DCLG house price index, New Zealand GDT price index.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. redbook, NAHB housing market index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sep 2018 09:14 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.93
Despite the greenback's intra-day rally in Asia to a fresh 7-week peak at 112.28 at European open on Trump's additional 200 billion worth of tariffs on China, subsequent sharp retreat on news that China will retaliate against these tariffs suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.
However, 111.38/40 should remain intact, yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 112.28 would revive bullishness for gain towards 112.69/70 but over bought condition would keep price below 112.80 and yield correction.

On the eco. data front, U.S. will release some 2nd-tier data starting with Redbook sales n NAHB housing market index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1666
Despite Tuesday's resumption of recent erratic upmove to a 2-week high of 1.1724 in New York, failure to re-test Aug's peak at 1.1734 and subsequent decline to 1.1652 suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with initial downside bias is in store, as long as sup at 1.1618 holds, gain to 1.1734 is still envisaged, then 1.1750.

A daily close below 1.1718 would shift risk to the downside for subsequent weakness towards 1.1565/70.

Data to release on Wednesday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, BoJ interest rate decision.
EU current account, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, EU construction output.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, current account, building permits, housing starts.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.36
The greenback's rally yesterday to a fresh 7-week peak at 112.39 in New York morning on Trump's additional 200 billion worth of tariffs on China, then higher to 112.43 today on Bank of Japan's rate decision suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 112.80 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would keep price below 113.00.

On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data starting with mortgage applications, current account, building permits, housing starts.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.26
The greenback's break of Tuesday's 7-week peak at 112.39 to 112.45 yesterday due partly to comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 112.80 would be seen, however, over bough condition would keep price below 113.00.

On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.

Economic data out later on Thursday :

Swiss imports, export, trade balance, SNB interest rate decision, UK retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, existing home sales, leading indicator, Canada ADP employment change, and EU consumer confidence.
Today is the second of the 2-day EU summit meeting in Salzburg, Austria.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1782
Yesterday's break of Aug's 1.1734 high (now sup) to a 2-month peak of 1.1785 in New York due to renewed usd's weakness (except vs yen) suggests price would head to 1.1815/25 after consolidation, overbought condition is expected to cap euro below 1.1852 (June's high) and risk has increased for a correction to take place later.

Only a daily close below 1.1734 confirms temp. top is made, then stronger retracement to 1.1665/70 would be seen.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, France GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada CPI, retail sales, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.71
The greenback's rally above Wednesday's high at 112.45 to 112.58 yesterday, then intra-day rise above this resistance to 112.87 due partly dollar's broad-based weakness suggests upmove from August's trough at 109.78 remains in progress and further gain towards 113.00 would be seen.
However, over bough condition would keep price below daily resistance at 113.17.

On the downside, only below 111.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 111.38/40.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light today with Markit September mfg and services PMIs being the only 2 data due out at 13:45GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1747
Despite continuing its recent winning streak to a fresh 3-month peak of 1.1803 in Europe, as intra-day selloff in sterling has led to broad-based usd's strength in New York morning and knocked price to 1.1733, suggesting recent upmove has made a temporary top and 1-2 days of consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1733 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1590/00.

Only above 1.1803 would extend marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below key daily res at 1.1852 today and yield correction.

Pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate and current conditions data, if bussiness sentiment forecast comes in weaker than forecast (103.2 vs previous reading of 103.80), euro will come another round of selling or long liquidation.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.47
Despite the greenback's rally to as high as 112.87 last Friday on dollar's broad-based strength, subsequent retreat to 112.28 in New Zealand today suggests erratic upmove from August's trough at 109.78 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.
However, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon support at 112.05 should remain intact, yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 112.87 would revive bullishness for gain towards daily resistance at 113.17 but over bought condition would keep price below 113.50.

On the data front, today is the Japan market holiday & China market holiday too.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK CBI industry trends survey.
Canada wholesale sales, and U.S. national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index data out on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1764
Despite yesterday's intra-day erratic rise from 1.1732 (Asia) to 1.1793 in New York morning, subsequent retreat in New York afternoon due to broad-based usd's rebound suggests choppy trading below Monday's 3-month peak at 1.1815 would continue ahead of FOMC rate decision, below 1.1724 would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.1680/90.

On the upside, only above 1.1815 would extend recent rise towrds key daily res at 1.1852, however, loss of upward momentum suggests this res may hold on 1st testing.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from euro area countries is France's consumer confidence.
Pay attention to speech by ECB's Mersh and Smets at a conference in Brussels at 07:00GMT, then ECB's Draghi will appear at a ceremony with a short speech in Berlin at 12:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.84
Although dollar's intra-day retreat from Asian fresh 2-month high at 113.03 due to cross unwinding in yen suggests temporary top has been made, as long as 112.44 holds, recent upmove should re-test key res at 113.17 (Jul peak), break would extend medium-term rise towards 113.75 target 'later' this week.

Below 112.44 would risk stronger retracement towards 112.05 but reckon 111.66 should remain intact.

Data out on Wednesday :
France consumer confidence, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, UK BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, new home sales, Fed's interest rate decision, Fed's monetary policy statement.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1754
Despite yesterday's brief jump to 1.1798 after Fed's expected rate hike, subsequent retreat in post-FOMC New York suggests choppy trading below Mon's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 would continue, below 1.1724/26 sup would confirm recent upmove has made a temporary top and bring stronger retracement to 1.1690 but sup at 1.1651 should hold.

On the upside, above 1.1815 would extend Medium Term rise from 1.1301 (August low) towards key daily res at 1.1852 should which hold on 1st testing due to loss of upward momentum.

ON the eco. data front, Itay will kick off with business and consumer confidence, EU's economic bulletin, Italy's PPI, EU's bus climate, eco. sentiment. industrial n services sentiment n consumer confidence, then Germany's SPI n HICP.
We also have a number of ECB officials speaking, pls refer to our EI section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2018 10:00 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.65
Despite the greenback's spike up to 113.13 in New York afternoon yesterday after the Federal Reserve's rate hike, subsequent selloff to 112.63 in Australia, then to 112.56 in Europe suggests recent upmove from August's low at 109.78 has made a temporary top there and choppy trading below June's 6-month peak at 113.17 would continue with downside bias, however, support at 112.28 should remain intact, yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.13 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 113.17, break would extend medium-term uptrend towards 113.39/40 later.

Data to be released later on Thursday :
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, CPI, HICP, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
Canada average weekly earnings, and U.S. durable goods, GDP, PCE, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Sept 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Sept 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1641
Yesterday's anticipated break of previous 1.1724/26 sup (now res) to a 9-day low of 1.1639 (New York), then 1.133 today confirms euro's early upmove from August's 13-month bottom at 1.1301 has made a top at Mon's 3-1/2 month peak at 1.1815 and downside bias remains for further further weakness after consolidation, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1565/70 and bring rebound next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1685 signals at least the 1st leg of correction is over and risks stronger retracement towards 1.1724.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty heavy on this last trading day in September, please refer to our EI section for details.
Also we have ECB's Lane speaking at 11:30GMT in London and then ECB's Chief Economist Praet at 12:35GMT in Frankfurt.