AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1712
Euro's resumption of upmove from last Friday's low at 1.1613 to as high as 1.1725 yesterday suggests early pullback from July's 1.1791 peak has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway towards 1.1758, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1791.

On the downside, only below 1.1676 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1640/50 before prospect of another rise later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, DCLG house price
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1654
Yesterday's stronger-than-expected decline from 1.1745 (Europe) to as low as 1.150 in New York due to renewed usd's strength following upbeat testimony by Fed's J. Powell suggests early correction from last week's low at 1.1613 has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains, below said sup needed to extend weakness to 1.1591.

On the upside, only above 1.1700/05 'prolongs' recent broad sideways swings and yields another rise to 1.1735/45.

Eco. calendar in the euro area is pretty light with the EU's June CPI and HICP being the only data due out.
The EU and Britain will hold Brexit talk. The President of the European Commission Juncker will hold a news conference in Brussels with the president of EIB at 10:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1653
despite euro's resumption of recent decline to a 2-week trough of 1.1602 yesterday, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low has been made and range trading is seen, as long as 1.1685/95 holds, downside bias remains for one more fall twd 1.1591.

A daily close above 1.1695 signals low has been made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1725, then 1.17475.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss imports, exports, trade balance, UK retail sales.
Canada ADP employment change, and U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicator.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1655
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline to a fresh 2-week trough of 1.1575, subsequent jump to 1.1678 in New York session due to broad-based weakness in the greenback following Trump's usd-negative comments suggests further 'choppy' trading above June's 11-month bottom at 1.1509 would continue, above 1.1678 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1725.

On the downside, only below 1.1602 signals rebound is over n would bring re-test of 1.1575 but 1.1509 should remain intact due to loss of downward momentum.

Data to be released on Friday :
Germany producer prices, EU current account, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Canada CPI, retail sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jul 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.43
Despite the greenback's rise yesterday to a fresh 6-month peak at 113.14, subsequent selloff to 112.07 in New York afternoon on U.S. President Donald Trump's comments suggests medium-term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 111.70/72.
However, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 111.50/54 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 113.17 would revive bullishness for gain towards 113.50/55 but over bought condition would keep price below 114.00 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

After a tumultuous week and no U.S. eco. data is due out today, however, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) will be speaking on U.S. economy and monetary policy at a business conference at 12:20GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1742
Euro's impressive rally from last week's low at 1.1575 (Thursday) to as high as 1.1739 in New York on Friday due to usd's weakness suggests choppy trading above June's 11-month bottom at 1.1509 would continue and as long as 1.1678 holds, gain towards last week's high at 1.1791 after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.1678 signals temporary top has been made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1650/55 before prospect of another rise later.

Eco. calendar is very thin for the euro area countries today with RU's prelim. consumer confidence for July being the only data due out at 14:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1691
Euro's early rally from last week's low at 1.1575 (Thursday) to 1.1750 initially yesterday signals correction from July's 1.1791 peak has ended and re-test of this level is envisaged later this week.
However, intra-day retreat to 1.1683 in New York due to rising U.S. yields would bring range trading before prospect of another rise towards 1.1768/73.

Only a daily close below 1.1678 (prev. res, now sup) dampens bullishness on euro and may risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1653 but sup 1.1621/26 would contain weakness.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with business climate, Markit mfg and services PMIs, then the same PMIs from Germany and the the same from the EU. Britain will publish proposal on EU withdrawal agreement later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1686
Although euro's rebound from 1.1655 to 1.1717 in European morning after upbeat German PMI data suggests pullback from Monday's high at 1.1750 has ended there, subsequent retreat in New York would bring sideways swings ahead of release of key German Ifo data.

Above 1.1717 would encourage for re-test of 1.1750, however, 'loss of momentum' should cap price below July's peak at 1.1791 whilst below 1.1655 would risk stronger retracement of upmove from last week's rally from 1.1575 to 1.1621/26 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released later :
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, UK BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, new home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1739
As yesterday's intra-day wild swings has ended with euro rallying after news of positive U.S.-EU trade talk, re-test of Mon's 1.1750 would be forthcoming next where a break there would bode well for price to head towards July's peak at 1.1790 which is likely to hold until ECB's press conference.

On the downside, only below near term good sup area at 1.1655/65 would shift risk to the downside for stronger retracement of last week's rise from 1.1575 to 1.1621/26.

Ahead of the ECB monetary policy announcement n then ECB Draghi's press conference, we have Germany's Gfk consumer confidence, France's consumer confidence n the same from Italy during European morning.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1641
Yesterday's initial gain to 1.1744 and then intra-day selloff in post-ECB New York session suggests choppy trading below this week's high at 1.1750 would continue with near term downside bias.
However, as price is expected to remain confined inside recent broad range of 1.1791-1.1575, 1.1590/00 would contain weakness and bring rebound later.

On the upside, above 1.1700/10 signals low is made and outlook would turn bullish for gain to 1.1730/40.

On the data front, France will kick off with prel. Q2 GDP, then Germany's import n export prices, France's consumer spending n Italy's PPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jul 2018 9:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.04
Although the greenback has staged a recovery to 111.24 after yesterday's break of Monday's low at 110.75 to 110.59 and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of U.S. GDP release today, as said move signals decline from July's 6-month peak at 113.17 has resumed, downside bias is retained for another fall later today or early next week.
Below 110.59 would extend towards 110.28/30 before prospect of a rebound later.

On the upside, only above 111.54 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk would increase for a much needed retracement to 111.80/85.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia PPI, France GDP, Germany import prices, France consumer spending, Italy producer prices, Canada budget balance, and U.S. GDP, PCE, University of Michigan sentiment

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jul 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1663
Euro's 3-legged fall last week from 1.1750 to 1.1621 (Fri) suggests further 'gyrations' inside recent broad range of 1.1791-1.1575 would continue and despite intra-day rebound in NY afternoon on short covering, as long as 1.1700/06 holds, downside bias remains for marginal weakness to 1.1600/05 before prospect of another bounce.

Above 1.1706 signals said decline from 1.1750 has ended and outlook would improve for stronger gain to 1.1740/50 later.

Data to be released today:
Japan retail sales, Swiss KOF indicator, EU business blimate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment , consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jul 2018 6:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1710
Euro's rally above Friday's 1.1664 high (now sup) to 1.1717 yesterday suggests early decline from last week's top at 1.1791 has ended at 1.1621 (Friday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1750, a daily close above there would bode well for re-test of 1.1791 later.

On the downside, only below 1.1664 would 'prolong' recent choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness towards 1.1621.

The euro area countries will release a lot of eco. data, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Aug 2018 6:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1685
Despite extending near term rise from 1.1621 (Fri) to 1.1746 at New York open yesterday, failure to re-test last week's high at 1.1750 and subsequent decline to 1.1685 due to renewed usd's strength on the back of robust U.S. data suggests further choppy sideways trading inside recent 1.1575-1.1750 range would continue.

On the downside, expect 1.1621 sup to contain weakness ahead of FOMC rate decision and bring rebound but only above 1.1746/50 res needed to retain bullishness for further headway twd Jul's peak at 1.1791 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :

Australia AIG manufacturing index, New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss market holiday, Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI, France Markit Manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI, UK Markit Manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit Manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, Fed interest rate decision

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1652
Although euro's intra-day break of yesterday's 1.1658 low confirms decline from this week's 1.1746 high has resumed and would yield marginal weakness, as price is expected to 'gyrate' recent broad range of 1.1575-1.1750 this week, reckon 1.1621 (last week's low) would hold from here and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, above 1.1700 would encourage for another rise to 1.1740/50.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, EU producer prices, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE MPC vote hike , BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, and U.S. initial jobless claims, ISM New York index, durable goods, durable goods order ex-defense, durable goods order ex-transport, factory orders.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Aug 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1587
Euro's intra-day break of last week's 1.1621 low to 1.1582 (New York) due to continued usd's broad-based strength suggests re-test of July's bottom at 1.1575 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above June's 11-month trough at 1.1509.

On the upside, above 1.1658 (soft U.S. jobs data perhaps) signals low is made and risk would shift to the upside for a strong retracement of recent decline to 1.1700.

On the data front, today is PMI day, France will kick off with budget balance, Italy's services PMI, then the same from France, Germany, Italy's industrial output, EU's servcies PMI, Italy's retail sales and the same from the EU.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1563
Despite staging a brief rebound from Fri's 1-month low of 1.1562 to 1.1611 in hectic European trading, subsequent sideways swings in post-NFP New York session and intra-day marginal weakness to 1.1557 suggests downside bias remains for further decline, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above June's 11-month bottom at 1.1509 today.

On the upside, only above 1.1632 signals temporary low is made and may yield stronger retracement to 1.1658, then later to 1.1690/00.

On the data front, Germany will release Jun industrial orders at European open n then EU's August Sentix investor confidence index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.22
Despite last week's rally to 112.15 on Wednesday, subsequent sharp retreat to 111.10 on Friday due to active risk-aversion on increased U.S.-China trade tension suggests correction from July's low at 110.59 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 110.76 would confirm this view and yield re-test of said support later, break would extend decline from July's 6-month peak at 113.17 to 110.28.

On the upside, only above 111.88 would indicate said pullback is over instead and risk gain towards 112.15, break would yield stronger retracement to 112.40/50.

Data to be released today:
Germany industrial orders, UK Halifax house prices, and EU Sentix index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Aug 2018 6:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1557
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline to a 1-month trough at 1.1530 due to broad-based usd's strength yesterday, loss of momentum should keep price above Jun's 11-month trough at 1.1509 and bring a much-needed correction later today or tomorrow.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1611 signals temporary low is in place and brings stronger retracement toweards 1.1648/58.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Japan household spending, RBA interest rate decision, Japan's coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, trade balance, import, export. U.S. Redbook sales, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Aug 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Aug 2018 5:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1601
Although yesterday's expected rebound to 1.1608 signals recent decline has made a temp. low at Mon's 1-month trough at 1.1530, as long as res area at 1.1621/32 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for another retreat but below 1.1530 needed to head towards June's 11-month bottom at 1.1509.

A daily close above 1.1632 would risk stronger retracement of recent fall from 1.1791 to 1.1690/00 later this week.

No euro area eco. data is due out today, so funds flow will have a strong influence on intra-day price move.