Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
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79
USD/JPY Daily Analytics
08:14 18.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 111.00; resistance – 111.60

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 111.60; SL — 111.80; TP1 — 111.00; TP2 — 110.50.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel Tenkan-Kijun; the market is in correction phase.

1516263181-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227f36_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-dollar-in-correction-to-cloud-6316
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
THE NEW ZEALAND DAIRY INDUSTRY – KEY FOR NZD TRADERS
08:53 18.01.2018

Why is it important for traders to know the priority industries of countries whose currencies they trade and take into account such events as the Global Dairy Trade (GDT), for example?

Let’s look at New Zealand. If you trade the New Zealand dollar, you should know that New Zealand is the world dairy leader. The dairy industry is the biggest export earner of New Zealand, it contains 29% of its export.

Fonterra
It is important to tell about Fonterra. Fonterra is a New Zealand multinational dairy co-operative that is responsible for about 30% of the world’s dairy exports. It is owned by around 10,500 New Zealand farmers.

What can affect the New Zealand dairy industry
Any changes in global dairy prices lead to changes in New Zealand trade, in turn, the New Zealand dollar.

It is worth to say that dairy industry was affected by several events. They are the Russian trade embargo, the cut of Chinese imports and dynamics in the international currency exchange market.

In 2013 Russia banned the imports of the Fonterra products, that was the second exporter on the Russian market. So it means that New Zealand lost a big importer, that affected the supply and New Zealand dollar as well. But nowadays New Zealand products have come back to the Russian market, that created good prospects for the currency.

It is important to take into account that China is one of the main trade partners of New Zealand, so any changes in import will affect the New Zealand export and exchange rate as well. Now New Zealand is raising its share in Chinese import of dairy products.

Considering currency exchange market, the weakness of the US dollar has a good impact on the New Zealand dollar.

What GDT is
Coming back to another important part of our question, let’s talk about GDT. GDT is the leading global auction for trading large volume of dairy ingredients and reference price discovery. Global Dairy Trade affects the price of currency because it regulates the number of dairy products that imports and exports in the world.

Below you can see the New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index. It measures the weighted-average price of 9 dairy products sold at auction every two weeks. So we can see if commodity prices rise, export income increases and vice versa.

1516265359-a58849bb9954b93bb9c3f3a050ddfe95_1200x1200_q90v3.png


Tips
In February 2018 the GDT will take place on Tuesday, February 6 at 12:00 UTC and on Tuesday, February 20 at 12:00 UTC.

Conclusion
Let’s sum up why traders should take into account main industries of the countries whose currencies they trade. We can say on the example of New Zealand that if traders know strengths of countries and take into consideration even such specific events as Global Dairy Trade, it can help them to make right decisions about currency trade.

Talking about prospects of New Zealand dollar we can say that it has good chances according to its dairy industry: the come back to the Russian market, the weakness of the US dollar and the increasing share in Chinese imports support its increase.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the-new-zealand-dairy-industry-–-key-for-nzd-traders-6318
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EURUSD Daily Analytics
11:20 18.01.2018

1516274311-486fe2de50630fb30de4f294ef536751_1200x1200_q90v3.png


The main trend is still bullish, but there's a bearish "Triple Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support area at 1.2129 - 1.2080. If a pullback from these levels happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2296 - 1.2322.

1516274310-cdcb953801ed312352bf075c215c23d5_1200x1200_q90v3.png


The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.2246 - 1.2272 as an intraday target. This area could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2129 - 1.20280.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd-bearish-triple-top-pattern-6321
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD Daily Analytics
11:22 18.01.2018

1516274309-6c6fddece00bbdf830681795b42ef9a4_1200x1200_q90v3.png


Bulls faced with resistance at 1.3913, so there's a bearish "Thorn" pattern. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.3765 - 1.3730. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area is on the table, the pair will probably try to reach another resistance at 1.3913 - 1.3942.

1516274309-6d66a3cb97f09d026419c9a0a38d1085_1200x1200_q90v3.png


There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that the market is going to test the closest resistance at 1.3834 - 1.3871. If we have a pullback from these levels, there'll be a moment to have a decline towards another support at 1.3765 - 1.3730.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-thorn-pattern-6322
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EURUSD Daily Analytics
12:29 18.01.2018

1516278523-9d67dd82da53af464f1cbdeccece3d18_1200x1200_q90v3.png


We've got a "High Wave" and an "Engulfing" patterns, which both have been formed at the last high. So, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term.

1516278523-79eaa43a8be51411be35dc68ea6517e9_1200x1200_q90v3.png


There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed by the last "Three Methods" pattern. Therefore, we should keep an eye on the upper "Window" as the next intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd-bullish-harami-6323
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:32 18.01.2018

1516278523-ded7b91c333ac10bb7d5b02aa81c1e98_1200x1200_q90v3.png


There's a bullish "Doji", which has been confirmed enough. Also, we've got a bullish "Three Methods" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average soon.

1516278523-6d6743daf9a9b545dfd2d1b2669ecc61_1200x1200_q90v3.png


The last bullish "Harami" has confirmation, so there's an opportunity to have a new local high soon. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the nearest resistance area happens, there'll be a moment to have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-market-going-to-test-89-ma-6324
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EURUSD Daily Analytics
13:02 18.01.2018

1516280464-f1922981f058b17cef40522967862ae2_1200x1200_q90v3.png


There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. In this case, we're likely going to have wave [v] of 5 shortly. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

1516280464-a844011cd7bab294d0b48fa45f63e7f5_1200x1200_q90v3.png


It's likely that wave [iv] finished like a double three pattern, so there's a developing upward impulse in wave (i). If a pullback from +1/8 MM Level happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have wave (ii) of [v].

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd-pullback-from-4-8-mm-level-6325
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD Daily Analytics
08:14 19.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 0.7980; resistance – 0.8030

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.8030; SL — 0.8050; TP1 — 0.7980; TP2 — 0.7940.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a market is overbought and under the strong resistance of 0.8030.

1516349640-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dbae66_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-aussie-under-strong-resistance-6338
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY Daily Analytics
08:15 19.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 110.30; resistance – 111.00

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 110.70/80; SL — 111.00; TP1 — 110.30; TP2 — 110.00.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a weak goldean cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the prices are on the weak Kijun’s support.

1516349640-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227f36_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-dollar-will-continue-downtrend-6339
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
BITCOIN (BTC/USD) POISED TO DO ANOTHER LOWER EXTENSION
01:56 22.01.2018

The cryptocurrency continues to depreciate against the US dollar and still keeps intact the projections we have made in past reports. Technically speaking, the BTC/USD is finding support for the Fibonacci extension of 61.8% in 9.259. This has allowed to have relief in the short term and is waiting to resume the bearish trend.

Fears regarding strict regulations for Bitcoin are still latent and the latest news about it does not favor BTC bulls. According to the latest reports, the government of India is beginning to send tax notices to the cryptocurrency traders. On the other hand, an introduced bill could force South Korean officials to declare their investments in this market.

The Parabolic SAR on the H4 chart is calling for more losses in the Bitcoin because it remains below the 200-hour moving average, which continues to guide the path of the BTC/USD pair in the short term. In addition, the resistance of 23.6% continues to block the advance of the bulls, which produced the formation of an enveloping candlestick.

What do we expect?

According to our forecasts in the H4 chart, cryptocurrency still has enough traction to reach the goal of the 100% Fibonacci extension in 5,754, which would complete a cycle in the short term. The RSI remains in negative territory, which favors the falls in the BTC and which strengthens our hypothesis for the week ahead

1516586133-f6f1917cd7f94b1941b5c83a26139aee_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/AUD Daily Analytics
01:57 22.01.2018

EUR/AUD remains trading around the Fibonacci zone of 61.8% at 1.5265, at which it’s expecting to find a strong rebound in order to allow further gains across the board. The ongoing consolidation could strengthen such bias and if it manages to break once again above the 200 SMA at H1 chart, the next short-term target would be the -23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.5514.

RSI indicator remains in the negative territory, but it’s close to the neutral territory.

1516586220-f64045ef6bf68534ad183fc7ab5a8b54_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
EUR/USD Daily Analytics
06:19 22.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2210; resistance – 1.2300.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.1210; TP1 — 1.2300; TP2 — 1.2330
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with Tenkan-sen; the prices are supported by Cloud.

1516601960-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2405_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-euro-may-continue-uptrend-6365
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
GBP/USD Daily Analytics
06:20 22.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3840; resistance – 1.3940.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.3840/60; SL — 1.3820; TP1 — 1.3940; TP2 — 1.3980.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; a market is on the strong support of Kijun-sen.

1516601960-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712827_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-supported-by-kijun-sen-again-6366
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
NZD/USD Daily Analytics
07:41 22.01.2018

Recommendation:

SELL 0.7230

SL 0.7285

TP1 0.7120 TP2 0.7055

On the daily chart, the inability of NZD/USD bulls to hold an important support at 0.7250-0.7265 points at their weakness. The odds of the reversal “Widening wedge” pattern will increase in the pair slides below 0.7170. On the other hand, a break of resistance levels at 0.7395 and 0.7475 will allow speaking about the uptrend’s resumption.

1516606828-fb9be1d9d65d6402746f6573306cf53b_1200x1200_q90v3.png


On H1, NZD/USD keeps forming a “Widening wedge”. A successful test of support at 0.7230 will create a possibility for a decline to 0.7120 and 0.7055.

1516606843-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8b1e_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd-usd-kiwi’s-flying-in-a-wedge-6371
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:51 22.01.2018

Recommendation:

BUY 0.7895

SL 0.7840

TP1 0.7990 TP2 0.8050 TP3 0.8125

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is fighting for an important level – 78.6% of the wave CD of the 5-0 pattern. The necessary condition for an uptrend’s resumption is a confident advance above resistance at 0.8050. As long as the pair keeps trading above 0.7885-0.7895, bulls remain in control.

1516607431-1db64c049cc9775b27418fd0e6b0833a_1200x1200_q90v3.png


On H1, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration” pattern. The pullback from the lower border of the uptrend’s channel and supports at 0.7895 and 0.7870 will allow speaking about the end of correction.

https://fbs.com/img/articles/6372/1516607451-ef00342837a633bda01cab6a3fe3e88f_1200x1200_q90v3.png[IMG]

More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-bulls-loosened-their-grip-6372]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-bulls-loosened-their-grip-6372[URL]
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
XAU/USD Daily Analytics
07:06 23.01.2018

Recommendation:

SELL $1324 SL $1339 TP1 $1302 TP2 $1280

BUY $1344 SL $1329 TP $1359 TP2 $1380 TP3 $1392

On the daily chart, if XAU/USD renews January high, the risks of its going to 127.2% target of AB=CD will increase. The nearest levels of support are at $1324 and $1302-1306 an ounce.

1516691089-20c6ebb86722ac92f8a505b7903a964b_1200x1200_q90v3.png


On H1, XAU/USD consolidated in the $1324-1344 range. A break of its upper border will trigger AB=CD pattern with a target at 161.8%. On the other hand, successful test of support at $1324 will increase the risks of a correction.

1516691111-e12a637cc937326a9c7981d6dfc46909_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/CAD Daily Analytics
07:15 23.01.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1.251 SL 1.2455 TP1 1.264 TP2 1.28 TP3 1.2855

SELL 1.2375 SL 1.243 TP1 1.2275 TP2 1.22 TP3 1.2125

On the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps fighting for an important level of 1.2462. Near it the pair formed a triangle. The break of it will either allow bulls to count on the pair’s return to resistance at 1.2670 or, on the other hand, increase the risks of the bearish trend’s resumption.

1516691638-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da31344610e_1200x1200_q90v3.png


On H1, USD/CAD there is a “Spike and ledge” pattern. A successful test of the upper or lower border of the 1.2375-1.2510 consolidation range will create grounds for a “Bat” pattern or AB=CD.

1516691653-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26a4a_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
AUD/USD: AUSSIE IN CORRECTION TO CLOUD
07:50 23.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7950; resistance – 0.8030

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7950; SL — 0.7930; TP1 — 0.8030; TP2 — 0.8080.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in correction to the Cloud.

1516693813-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dbae66_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-aussie-in-correction-to-cloud-6399
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
USD/JPY Daily Analytics
07:51 23.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 110.50; resistance – 111.00

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 111.00; SL — 110.80; TP1 — 111.50; TP2 — 112.00.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the prices are entered into cloudy area and may continue growing up.

1516693812-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227f36_1200x1200_q90v3.png


More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
 

riki143

Master Trader
Dec 18, 2013
6,699
4
79
DOES BITCOIN REALLY HAVE A FAIR VALUE?
08:54 23.01.2018
Bitcoin is inflating and deflating from day to day like a bubble. Nowadays there are a lot of questions about Bitcoin and one of them is what its fair value is.

Economists and analysts are trying to create their own formulas to count Bitcoin's value. So let’s look how they tried to do it.

There are two parameters of a currency's fair value measurement. To measure the fair value, it is needed to identify a store value and an exchange value. Mostly, all economists who believe that Bitcoin has a value, make their calculations based on these two figures. Currency strategist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Woo is one of them. Woo tried to compare Bitcoin to silver as a store of value but failed. The value was not determined. And later analysts of the bank declared that a true value for cryptocurrencies may be impossible to assess.

Then Bitcoin also was compared to gold. Nowadays, the total amount of Bitcoin is much less than that of gold. However, real fans of Bitcoin believe that it will surpass gold in total value.

There is another approach to this issue. Analyst of Credit Suisse Damien Boey estimated the Bitcoin fair value at $6,000. How did he count? He took into account the size of Bitcoin's network and the yield spread on BBB-rated bonds. So Bitcoin rises as more people use the network. He found out that Bitcoin price has a negative correlation to BBB credit spreads – the difference between the yield on BBB-rated debt. The price of Bitcoin depends on a financial policy of a government as well.

In the next approach, economists were taking into account the distributed system of the currency. They gave value to Bitcoin because of its transactional system. But they concluded that it was wrong to assess the value based on convenience of payments because now Bitcoin is rarely used for buying anything. So economists came to the dead end again.

However, we should not miss an opinion that Bitcoin does not have any value at all. For example, Richard Turnhill, a strategist for BlackRock Financial, the world largest money manager, world-class investors Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Jamie Dimon from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said that Bitcoin is a bubble that can rise in a short-term, but it will burst anyway.

1516697567-db38b0e7df06f6e9b1ef00b49390bea1_1200x1200_q90v3.png


Conclusion

When economists start to estimate Bitcoin, they meet 2 main problems. Firstly, Bitcoin is rarely used for buying anything. It is impossible to estimate its exchange value because nowadays transactions include only buying and selling Bitcoin, Bitcoin is not exchanged for anything else because of the permanently changing price. The total number of bitcoin transactions over the past year added up to less than one-tenth of 1 % of total e-commerce transactions. Secondly, considering a store of value, analysts met another problem. They compared cryptocurrency with silver and gold, but if we can hold metals, we cannot hold Bitcoins. Numbers of metals and cryptocurrency are not compared as well. Cryptocurrencies do not have underlying value like metals. Bitcoin cannot be guaranteed by an issuer because there is not any.

That is why, we can come to the conclusion that the value of Bitcoin is created by users: as much as people believe in cryptocurrency, as much it increases.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ampaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics