Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD jumps by 1.1% amid progress in UK and EU talks
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1830 2017-11-17 to 0545 2017-12-01.png
As it was warned yesterday, publication of encouraging news from the United States one after another led to notable appreciation of the buck whose surge was stopped only is support zone located around the weekly S1 at 1.3231. Since the rebound was based on reports that Britain has finally managed to reach a deal with the European Union, the Pound advanced by 1.1% just in three hour and ended the day at previously mentioned 1.3380 resistance level. Although volatility was high, it did not lead to dissolution of the channel. In contrast, it forced only to adjust its boundaries. As a result, during this session bulls are expected to continue trying to push the cable to the weekly R1 at 1.3406. But as this indicator crosses upper trend-line of the pattern, a new rebound is expected to follow.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY breaks two-week long channel down
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0230 2017-11-22 to 1000 2017-11-30.png
For the first time in many weeks, reports about another ballistic missile launch made by North Korea did not led to appreciation of the Yen. The news from Asia most probably was beat by a series of positive news coming from the United States. From technical point of view, strengthening of the buck led to breakout through strong resistance formed by the upper boundary of a descending channel together with the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Although certain signs point out on formation of a new ascending channel, this view might be premature, as further path to the north is obstructed by resistance zone surrounding the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 111.65 as well the weekly PP at 111.78 that is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. In other words, today the pair is likely to plunge back to 111.20.

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD forms minor symmetrical triangle
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 1830 2017-11-16 to 2039 2017-11-30.png
The second half of previous trading session the rate spent in horizontal movement. A release of better than expected US consumer sentiment data pushed it to the bottom, while another launch of ICBM by North Korea gave a reason to continue the surge. Technically, the southern side was protected by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that are lying along the lower support line of the rising wedge formation, while the northern side contained the weekly and monthly R1. Although the pair has formed a minor symmetrical triangle, it is still expected to make a breakout to top. This assumption is based on market sentiment, which is 52% bullish as well as dominance of the larger pattern. However, there is a need to notice that release of the US Prelim GDP can lead to short-term strengthening of the buck.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD trades near 1.1864 amid strong resistance
EURUSD ASK 1H since 0815 2017-11-20 to 1930 2017-12-01.png
The resumption of surge towards the 1.1910 level was halted by the weekly PP with the 55-hour SMA as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-hour SMA. Nevertheless, the general scenario remains the same. In medium perspective the pair is projected to reach the upper boundary of a senior descending channel near the 1.1940 mark. However, during this trading session the above technical indicators are likely to push the rate back to combined support formed by the 200-hour SMA and the bottom edge of a junior ascending channel. But this scenario might be altered due to release of estimate on Euro Zone’s inflation. Even though the event itself does not arouse much volatility but it might create a momentum for easier breakthrough to the top.

a.PNG




GBP/USD breaks from dominant channel down
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1600 2017-11-20 to 0315 2017-12-02.png
On the one hand, the cable has reached the forecasted target at the 1.3406 level. On the other hand, the upper boundary of the junior ascending channel that was backed by the weekly S1 could not constrain the further surge. Moreover, the 47 pip jump in the early hours of this trading session allowed the pair to break not only through the monthly R1 but also the upper trend-line of a dominant descending channel. As the pair two times in a raw failed to bypass the 1.3480 mark, a small retreat is expected to follow. However, if traders decide to readjust the above junior channel up, the correction might drag the pair back to 1.3400. Nevertheless, in larger perspective an optimism related to Brexit is likely to continue driving the Pound towards the 1.3600 level.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY forms minor rising wedge
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0030 2017-11-21 to 1145 2017-12-02.png
Even though there were attempts to push the pair back to the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, anticipation of the upcoming US GDP data release inched the buck higher. Without this fundamental background the pair would unlikely to bypass the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 111.65 and the monthly S1 at 112.05. However, the further surge seems unlikely, as yesterday’s sharp advance led to transformation of new junior ascending channel into the rising wedge formation. In support of this assumption, there is an alleged resistance area between the 112.30 and 112.35 marks that matches with the breaking point of the pattern. In case this assumption is incorrect, a combination of the weekly R1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 112.45 should temporarily halt the buck from soaring higher.

c.PNG




XAU/USD drops by 0.9% as American GDP grows
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 2045 2017-11-17 to 2254 2017-12-01.png
An estimated growth of the US GDP expectedly strengthened the buck and reduced demand for the safe haven metal even though the plunge was not expected to be so sharp, as southern side was reliably protected by two moving averages that were moving along the trend-line of a rising wedge formation. As the aggregate market sentiment remains 60% bullish, in medium perspective the pair is expected to continue rising in the one-month long ascending channel. With respect to the current trading session, formation of a minor pennant pattern suggests that the rate is likely to continue moving downwards towards the bottom boundary of the above channel. Nevertheless, a rebound might happen earlier if the pair fails to bypass support zone located between the 1,282.00-1,283.00 levels.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD prepares to hit 1.1940
EURUSD ASK 1H since 1226 2017-11-22 to 1536 2017-12-02.png
In line with expectations, in first half of previous trading session the pair slipped to the bottom and, after reaching at the 200-hour SMA that was located slightly above the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel, resumed the surge. By this morning, the currency rate has crossed practically all notable resistance levels. The only area left untested is located at 1.1936. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to stop the pair from reaching the upper boundary of a senior descending channel near 1.1940 by the end of the day. But even in case bears take the lead, for instance, after release of better than expected information on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, combined support level formed mainly by the 100-hour SMA but also by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is expected to neutralize the plunge.

a.PNG



GBP/USD slowly heads to weekly R3
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 2016 2017-11-23 to 1925 2017-12-02.png
In accordance with expectations, in first half of previous trading session the cable made a minor pull back to 1.3440 and then resumed the surge. An existence of two barriers located at the 1.3500 and 1.3530 levels was confirmed, while the pair continued to climb to the top yesterday. As majority of pending orders both in 50 and 100 pip range are set to buy, the currency rate is expected to continue moving upwards today as well. The bullish scenario is also backed up by fundamental reasons, such optimism related to progress made on Brexit. However, there is a need to take into account that alleged resistance barriers located at the 1.3560, 1.3580 and 1.3590 might either halt or event slightly turnaround the pair, especially if it matches with release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY tests strong resistance at 112.70
USDJPY ASK 1H since 1239 2017-11-23 to 2205 2017-12-02 (1).png
Unfortunately, neither existence of a rising wedge formation, nor the weekly R1 or the 50% Fibonacci retracement level stopped the rate from breaking to the top. However, this does not automatically mean dissolution of the pattern, as it still stay in force by making readjustment of the boundaries. Regardless of existence of the figure, in order to continue moving upwards, the pair will need to cross strong resistance zone located between the 112.62 and 12.70 marks. In addition to that, this barrier is strengthened by the 55-day SMA that lies at 112.75 as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00. In support of this assumption, 55% of pending orders in 100 pip range and 59% in 50 pip ranges are set to sell.

c.PNG



XAU/USD breaks from junior channel up
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 2200 2017-11-20 to 0009 2017-12-03.png
Formation of a minor pennant pattern, indeed, pushed the further downwards. However, the fact that the buck continued to appreciate against the gold in based not only on release of satisfying macroeconomic data yesterday. Most probably the maximum that the pair has reached on November 27 was interpreted as a rebound from the upper trend-line of a larger descending channel, while the subsequent massive plunge simultaneously signified a breakout from the junior rising wedge formation. If this view dominates the market, then the bearish pressure is expected to continue until the pair reaches the lower support line of a dominant long-term ascending channel near 1,271.00. As for today, unless some event causes high volatility the pair is likely to fluctuate between the 1,276.50 and 1,271.50 levels.
 

Attachments

  • d.PNG
    d.PNG
    9.7 KB · Views: 4

kolman

Trader
Nov 29, 2017
31
0
12
However, there is a need to take into account that alleged resistance barriers located at the 1.3560, 1.3580 and 1.3590 might either halt or event slightly turnaround the pair
Do you think if the significant correction from this levels is possible or not or rally is likely to continue
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD starts new week at 1.1870
EURUSD ASK 1H since 2220 2017-11-24 to 1101 2017-12-05.png
On Friday, the pair fluctuated quite intensively amid contradicting reports that the US Senate is ready to vote for tax reform, while General Flynn pledged guilty to lying to the FBI. Nevertheless, it is still fluctuating in a junior ascending channel and is about to clash with the upper boundary of a dominant descending channel. As for today, the pair started new trading week in a limbo between the 100- and 200-hour SMAs. Although the upper side is additionally filled with the 55-hour SMA at 1.1884, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1887 and the weekly PP at 1.1890, the Euro is still projected to pave the path to the north. However, this assumption holds true unless traders interpreted Friday’s plunge as a rebound from larger pattern.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD reaches two month maximum at 1.3550
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1115 2017-11-22 to 2230 2017-12-05.png
As it appears from hourly chart, the 1.3550 mark signified the two month maximum that the cable could not surpass. In result of a rebound, a new junior descending channel has been formed. The pattern is expected to stay in force at least until the rate will reach support set up by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 1.3420. If this barrier becomes broken, a more mature support zone should be formed by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP at 1.3371. However, there is an assumption about formation of two other medium ascending channels whose lower boundaries might intersect with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level located at 11.3256 and the monthly S1 at 1.3195. In that case, bears are likely to take the lead for the upcoming two-three weeks.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY falls from rising wedge by 1.22%
USDJPY ASK 1H since 1445 2017-11-22 to 0200 2017-12-06.png
An announcement made by General Flynn that led to rapid sell-off of the buck against all major currencies perfectly matched with a breaking point of a readjusted rising wedge formation. Fortunately, bulls managed to create support near the 111.80 mark that was surrounded by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the bottom boundary of an ascending channel. As this event occurred shortly before markets got closed, new trading session the pair started straight from the pre-fall 112.80 level. Accordingly, the pair has once again returned back into boundaries of the above rising wedge pattern. Since further path to the top is obstructed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 113.00 and the weekly R1 at 113.11, the pair might actually make another turnaround.

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD trades near upper boundary of dominant channel
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 1500 2017-11-21 to 1709 2017-12-05.png
In full accordance with expectations, in first half of the previous trading session the buck continued to trade against the gold in a limbo between the 1,270.50 and 1,276.70 marks. However, the subsequent admission of guilt by General Flynn led to 0.76% rise in demand for safe haven metal just in one hour. But as it was an impulse reaction, a combination of the 100- and 200-hour SMAs managed to neutralize the surge. Since there are no impactful news planned for today, the rate is likely to spend this trading day between the 55-hour SMA at 1,279.00 and the above bottom boundary located near 1,270.00. In larger perspective, bulls are expected to take the lead once again, although the pair might prolong consolidation for the next couple of days.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD still trades near 1.1870
EURUSD ASK 1H since 0249 2017-11-27 to 1910 2017-12-05.png
Despite positive sentiment related to successful vote on tax bill by the US Senate, the pair both started and ended the day near the 1.1870 mark. The reason for that is related to combined resistance formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs and support provided by the lower trend-line of a one-month long ascending channel. Unless the rate receives an impulse from some fundamental event, such as the Non-Manufacturing PMI data release, it is likely to spend another day in a similar horizontal movement. Apart from that, there is a need to take into account two additional junior descending channels. It is highly possible that their framework taken together with the above technical indicators will create a bearish pressure strong enough to dissolute the ascending channel eventually.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD jumps up and down from political news
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1346 2017-11-24 to 0655 2017-12-06.png ,
In general, previous trading session the currency rate spent moving downwards, as expected. Apart from rebound from the two month maximum at 1.3550, the drop was driven by anxiety over affirming vote on tax bill as well as new report that no agreement on Brexit has been reached yet. From technical point of view, today the pair is squeezed between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the top and the weekly PP plus the 200-hour SMAs from the bottom. These boundaries point out of further correction of the cable. Theoretically, one of the scheduled data releases for today might stimulate the rate to make a breakout. However, this scenario seems unlikely, as markets are mainly focused on political news.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY meets strong resistance at 113.00
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0314 2017-11-27 to 0232 2017-12-06.png
As it was suggested yesterday, the currency exchange rate made a fully-fledged breakout from a rising wedge formation after encountering resistance posed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 113.00. However, the plunge was not deep, as southern side was secured by two moving averages and another 50% retracement level located at 112.45. As long as there are no disappointing political news coming from the United States, the rate is projected to keep climbing back to the 113.00 mark. But before that it might be temporarily stopped by the monthly PP at 112.70. Nevertheless, the rising 55- and 100-hour SMA are expected to continue stimulating the upwards movement and simultaneously secure the bottom boundary of a currency active junior ascending channel.

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD moves horizontally near 1,276
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 1854 2017-11-24 to 0355 2017-12-06.png
As it was anticipated, yesterday’s trading session the exchange rate spent in a flat movement between support and resistance zones located at the 1,270 and 1,275 marks. As long as there are no substantial news coming from the United States, the pair is not expected to jump above the 1,280.42 level that represents location of the monthly PP and the 100-hour SMA. The similar assumption holds for the 1,270.00 mark that is crossed by the bottom boundary of a dominant ascending channel. In larger perspective it is still unclear whether the above dominant pattern will sustain or it will be broken amid the pressure from a medium-term descending channel. Most probably until the market sentiment turns bearish the rate will manage to keep gradual advance.

d.PNG
 

kolman

Trader
Nov 29, 2017
31
0
12
GBP/USD jumps up and down from political news
View attachment 12062 ,
In general, previous trading session the currency rate spent moving downwards, as expected. Apart from rebound from the two month maximum at 1.3550, the drop was driven by anxiety over affirming vote on tax bill as well as new report that no agreement on Brexit has been reached yet. From technical point of view, today the pair is squeezed between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the top and the weekly PP plus the 200-hour SMAs from the bottom. These boundaries point out of further correction of the cable. Theoretically, one of the scheduled data releases for today might stimulate the rate to make a breakout. However, this scenario seems unlikely, as markets are mainly focused on political news.

View attachment 12063
A strong correction is observed on the market now, for further uptrend continuation the price needs to break the nearest resistance on H1 timeframe
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD reaches 38.2% Fibo at 1.1760
EURUSD ASK 1H since 1100 2017-11-24 to 2336 2017-12-13.077d4da5684e7a2b2fe122fc1696fd26B.png
In result of the previous trading session the currency exchange rate has expectedly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.1760. As the pair is also moving in a junior falling wedge formation, a breakout in northern direction is expected to happen. This projection is additionally supported by the fact that the above retracement level coincides with the bottom boundary of a larger descending channel. If the breakout happens, the surge is likely to last until the currency rate will reach the 55-hour SMA or the monthly PP at 1.1807. However, a release of better than expected US employment data might alter this scenario and push the rate straight to alleged support zone located between the 1.1730 and 1.1720 marks.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD heads upwards amid Brexit news
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 2048 2017-11-24 to 0924 2017-12-14.efde21f5fd75de79223740342262893fl.png
During previous trading session the pair initially slipped to support line located at the 1.3338 mark but then suddenly resumed the surge and ended the day at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The drop was based on reports about the action made by Congress aimed to avoid government shutdown, while the surge reflected progress made on the Irish border deal. As Theresa May heads to Brussels to resume the talks, the Pound is expected to continue appreciating against the Dollar, trying to reach the 1.3550 mark. However, this upward movement might be quickly stopped in case of disappointing news coming from Belgium’s capital. If this negative scenario materializes a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP are unlikely to keep the bearish pressure.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY tends to reach 114.00
USDJPY ASK 1H since 0500 2017-11-20 to 1445 2017-12-13.8642074d711d2ca3b6a488690c92c629n.png

As the Congress managed to avoid government shutdown, the Dollar continued to gain value against the Yen, simultaneously passing the monthly PP and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 113.00. At the moment, the pair is facing no technical barriers on its way up until the weekly R2. On the other hand, there are two alleged resistance zones located between the 113.47 and 113.57 as well as 113.86 and 113.91 marks. Moreover, the pair might be stopped near the 113.75 level, as this area represents location of an upper boundary of an alleged junior ascending channel. There is also a need to take into account an effect from release of the US employment data, as it might either help to push the rate to the above weekly R2 or return it back to the above retracement level.
c.PNG