Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938
EURUSD ASK 1H since 0645 2017-09-06 to 1800 2017-09-19.png
Due to release of negative data on the US Core Retail Sales, the Euro caught an upside momentum, which lasted until the pair met a resistance in the 1.1985-95 area. At the moment, the currency rate is located near the updated weekly PP at 1.1938, being squeezed between the 200- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, an aggregate of technical indicators sends neutral signal. This fact plus the traditional Monday’s inactivity suggests that the pair is unlikely to make major advances today. However, generally, the pair is expected to make attempt to break through the above resistance towards the new weekly R1 at 1.2039. On the other side, an average market sentiment remains 65% bearish, which means that in case of a new rebound bears might try to drag the rate down to the monthly PP at 1.1881.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
GBP/USD advances by another 150 points
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1330 2017-09-06 to 0045 2017-09-20.png
As it was expected, the Pound continued to appreciate against the US Dollar, following a speech delivered by the External BOE MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe on Friday. At the moment, the currency rate is moving horizontally in a limbo between the monthly R3 at 1.3701 from the top and the monthly R2 at 1.3485 from the bottom. However, it should be noted that space between the current market price and the above two barriers amounts approximately to 100 pips in both directions. Most probably, the pair is going to continue to move horizontally until the moment when Governor Carney will start answering questions at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the IMF at 15:00 GMT. Taking into account previous market reaction on similar two events last week, another sharp surge is likely to follow.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
USD/JPY fails to break above 111.26 two times
USDJPY ASK 1H since 2359 2017-09-08 to 0540 2017-09-19.png
In line with expectations, until a release of data on the US Retail Sales the currency pair spent in an upward movement. In the process, it made two attempts to break above the monthly R1 at 111.26 but both of them failed.

Due to pressure from the approaching 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as existence of a recently formed ascending channel, the pair is expected to eventually break through that barrier. An aggregate of technical indicators supports this scenario, sending strong buy signals.

Nevertheless, a possibility of a third rebound and subsequent dissolution of the channel also remains on the table.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
XAU/USD breaks long-term channel up
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0800 2017-09-06 to 0209 2017-09-20.png
Even though information released about the US Core Retail Sales appeared to be worse than analysts expected, the pair did not manage to stay in a long term-ascending channel. It seems that the breakout was triggered by a combined pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.

Today the pair is likely to continue to move to the bottom, trying to reach the updated weekly S1 at 1,310.77. A recovery of the yellow metal is not expected to follow, as the northern side is reliably secured not only by the above 55- and 100-hour SMAs, but also by the updated weekly PP at 1,325.63 as well as the upper boundary of a new junior channel down.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
EUR/USD tries to break above 1.1995
EURUSD ASK 1H since 1930 2017-09-11 to 0300 2017-09-20.png
As it was forecasted, the rate failed to make any substantial moves yesterday. To be precise, bears tried to push the pair to the bottom at least three times but all these attempts were neutralized by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, today it is testing an area between the 1.1985 and 1.1995 levels. Certain technical suggests that this attempt will fail, as the pair is overbought. On the other hand, the rate experiences constant pressure from the above moving averages, which now became also strengthened by the 200-hour SMA. From this perspective, the surge towards the weekly R1 seems a more likely scenario. In addition, if the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will justify expectations that could give the Euro a necessary impulse to reach the above target.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
GBP/USD falls as Carney speaks
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1437 2017-09-11 to 0232 2017-09-20.png
As it was expected, a steady horizontal movement represented an anticipation of the speech that was delivered by Governor Carney yesterday. On the one hand, it did not let to the anticipated appreciation of the Pound. But on the other hand, the plunge of the rate was expectedly neutralized by a combination of the 55-hour SMA and the monthly R2 at 1.3485. At the moment, the currency rate is not facing any resistance on its way up until the monthly R3, which is located at the 1.3701 level. In contrast, the opposite direction contains a whole package of technical indicators, including the weekly PP and the approaching 100-hour SMA, which altogether form a combined support level. Accordingly, the Sterling is likely to continue to pave the path to the top.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
USD/JPY approaches to upper edge of dominant pattern
USDJPY ASK 1H since 1842 2017-09-11 to 0133 2017-09-20.png
The pressure from the 20- and 55-hour SMAs as well as formation of a minor ascending triangle expectedly led to further appreciation of the back against the Yen. Currently, the pair is confidently approaching to the weekly R1, which is located at the 112.07 level. The fact that the rate experiences pressure from the above MAs as well as the fact that the rate is fluctuating in an ascending channel point out on the further surge. However, after crossing this level there is a high chance that the pair will retreat, as an area between the 112.20 and 112.55 levels represents a location of the monthly R2, the 200-day SMA and, most importantly, the upper edge of a long-term falling wedge. So, from a daily perspective after reaching the 112.55 mark, the Yen is expected to take the lead once again.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
XAU/USD prepares to test 1,300.00
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 1915 2017-09-12 to 1116 2017-09-22.png
In line with expectations, the yellow metal continued to lose value against the buck yesterday, in the process crossing the weekly S1 at 1,310.77. From a daily perspective, the downfall should continue today as well.

But in order to do that, the exchange rate has to break through a combined support set up by the weekly S2 at 1,301.03 and the monthly PP at 1,300.04. The fact that this barrier is located at the psychological level and also coincides with the bottom edge of a descending channel suggests that a rebound might happen at least in the short run. However, even in the case of a rebound recovery of the gold is unlikely to last for long due to pressure from the slipping 55- and 100-hour SMAs.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
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72
EUR/USD waits for Fed’s decision
EURUSD ASK 1H since 0140 2017-09-13 to 0910 2017-09-21.png
In line with expectations, a pressure from the 55- and 200-hour SMAs, better than expected German release as well as general informational background helped to pair to make a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern yesterday. From technical point of view, the currency rate is continuing to feel pressure from the bottom from the before-mentioned moving averages. Hence, an area between 1.2030 and the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.2039 level, represents the next likely target to be reached by the pair. By the way, the moment of approaching to this resistance level practically coincides with the announcement of the Federal Funds Rate. In addition, that area also represents a breakout point from the recently formed rising wedge pattern.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
GBP/USD forms minor symmetrical triangle
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 0215 2017-09-08 to 1330 2017-09-21.png
Unfortunately for the Pound, previous trading session signified the end of an upside momentum that guided movement of the pair over the last four days. On hourly chart it is easy to note how the 55-hour SMA managed to neutralize multiple attempts to break to the top. However, from the opposite direction the fall of the rate was similarly constrained by the monthly R2 at 1.3485. In result of this consolidation the currency pair is now fluctuating in a minor symmetrical triangle whose breakout point in terms of time coincides with announcement of the Federal Funds Rate. On the other hand, there is a need to take into account that the above pattern is likely to broken a little bit earlier due to reaction on release of data on the UK Retail Sales.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY tries to break below 111.26
USDJPY ASK 1H since 2140 2017-09-12 to 0510 2017-09-21.png
Even though in the early Tuesday morning the pair moved quite confidently towards the weekly R1, which is located at the 112.07 level, in second half of the day it made a rebound and did not go above the 111.90 mark anymore. Surprisingly, but a release of better than expected American housing data did not led to appreciation of the Greenback against the Yen. Such outcome suggests considering a possibility of transformation of a dominant ascending channel into a rising wedge. However, even if the new pattern will take the lead this fact should not change the general yesterday’s scenario. On the other hand, the relevance of this pattern will greatly depend on the Fed’s decision that will be made later this day.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD makes premature rebound
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 2110 2017-09-12 to 0956 2017-09-21.png
Contrary to expectations, the pair did not try to test a strong support level near the 1,300.00 mark. In contrast, it made a premature turn-around and bypassed the weekly S1 at 1,310.77 as well as the 55-hour SMA. Such outcome suggests that at least first half of this trading day the gold might spend in further advance against the buck. However, it is unlikely that the pair will manage to break through the upper trend-line of a guiding descending channel that is additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA. This assumption is also supported by the general picture on a daily chart. However, there is a need to notice that the eventual outcome will greatly depend on decision and comments made by the Federal Reserve later this day.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
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72
EUR/USD plunges amid FOMC statement
Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png
A decision of the Fed to start reducing the size of its $4.5 trillion asset portfolio caused a very high volatility in the markets, which resulted in 123 points appreciation of the Dollar against the Euro just in one hour. From technical perspective, this event signified a breakout of the pair from a rising wedge. Although the fall was sharp, it was stopped by a combined support formed by the monthly PP at 1.1881 together with the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. On the one hand, today the buck might make another attempt to break to the bottom, using the downside momentum from the yesterday’s event. On the other hand, on a daily chart it looks like the rate formed a third reaction low yesterday and, for this reason, has to make a fully-fledged rebound.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD fails to pass 1.3485 mark again
Chart_GBP_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png

In accordance with expectations, a release of much better than expected data on the UK Retail Sales led to a premature breakout from a symmetrical triangle. However, the subsequent Federal Funds Rate announcement dragged the pair in the opposite direction. For the third day in raw the fall of the rate was stopped at the monthly R2, which is located at the 1.3485 level. Today the currency pair is not expected to make any significant moves, as it is squeezed between two combined barriers that are likely to neutralize any attempts of a breakout. From the top it is constrained by the 55- and 100-hour SMA, while from the bottom by the above monthly R2 plus the weekly PP at 1.3456. But from a daily perspective, the buck is expected to continue to gradually recover against the Pound.
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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY tests upper boundary of long-term pattern
Chart_USD_JPY_Hourly_snapshot.png
As with other major currencies, the Fed’s decision to reduce the bonds it owns and keep the interest rate unchanged led to sharp appreciation of the Greenback against the Yen.

This surge forced the pair to test a combined resistance level formed by the monthly R2 at 112.54 in conjunction with the upper boundary of a long-term falling wedge. From this perspective, the exchange rate is likely to make a rebound and spend the upcoming month moving in the southern direction.

On the other hand, the pair continues to fluctuate in a junior ascending channel whose relevance is supported by the soaring 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD bypasses psychological level at 1,300.00
Chart_XAU_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png

As it was expected, most of the previous trading day the pair spent in a surge, trying to reach and break through a barrier set by the 100-hour SMA and the upper edge of a descending channel. A decision made by the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged an impulse strong enough to push the rate through a significant support, which was located near the 1,300.00 mark. From a general perspective, further movement of the pair is expected to continue to be guided by bears. As regards the current situation, after crossing the above psychological level the rate has not significant obstacles on its way up until the weekly S3 at 1,286.17, which is located at the intersection with the bottom boundary of the active formation. Hence, the gold is likely to lose some more value against the buck today.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD heads upwards as Merkel wins elections
EURUSD ASK 1H since 2245 2017-09-12 to 1000 2017-09-26.png

Although initially markets were positively anticipating the upcoming Draghi speech at Trinity College, but the subsequent reaction led to quite rapid recovery of the Dollar on Friday. To certain extent, such bearish movement could be related to anticipation of the German Parliamentary elections. However, as soon as it became clear that Merkel managed to retain her post, the Euro started restoring previously lost positions. From technical perspective, this upside momentum is likely to be neutralized by a combined resistance formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1.1947. On the other hand, Draghi’s testimony at the European Parliament might create a new short-term volatility in the markets, which could give the pair a necessary impulse to bypass those barriers.
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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD tries to restore lost positions
GBPUSD ASK 1H since 0256 2017-09-15 to 1539 2017-09-25.png
The speech delivered by Theresa May about post-Brexit relationship with the EU on Friday, indeed affected value of the Pound. Unfortunately, the effect was negative and the British currency just in one hour lost 79 points against the Dollar. Probably the best description of this situation was made by the German Foreign Minister who noted that the speech was vague and did not contain any concrete proposals. Accordingly, the rectangle pattern that formed in the beginning of previous week sustained and is likely to sustain today as well. On the one hand, the rate feels pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1.3536 that pushes it to the top. However, the expected target for today would be an area around 1.3585, but not the upper edge of the formation.

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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY continue to fluctuate near monthly R2 at 112.55
USDJPY ASK 1H since 2030 2017-09-12 to 0745 2017-09-26.png
Due to increasing hostile rhetoric between the US and North Korea about mutual destruction, the Yen got another momentum to try to return to the 111.38 level. But this attempt was neutralized by the 100-hour SMA near 111.72. Because of this support, the buck started restoring its lost positions but once again failed to break above the monthly R2, which is located at the 112.55 level. In the first half of the day, the pair is likely to fall towards a combination of the above 100-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 111.90. Afterwards, the buck is expected to try to make a rebound and make another attempt to break through that strong resistance level. But from a general perspective, the rate should enter into a clearly red zone.
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KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
XAU/USD continues to move downwards
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 1848 2017-09-14 to 1443 2017-09-26.png
In accordance with expectations, the surge of the gold price did not last for long, as the pair was turned around by the monthly PP located at the 1,300.00 level, which transformed from support into resistance. At the moment, there are certain signs that the rate is going to try to climb to the top again. However, this new attempt is expected to fail due to presence of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs plus the updated weekly PP, which altogether additionally strengthen the above resistance level. In addition to that, the further deprecation of the bullion against the gold is expected from a daily perspective, as the rate is fluctuating in a junior descending channel, which forms a part of a larger long-term ascending channel.

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