Daily Analysis by VTFX

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
Here you can find daily analysis of major currencies and asset classes. Our aim is to provide you with the current theme of the market along with trade ideas

Consider shorting ERUGBP at current levels

EURGBP-Feb-17.png


EURUSD-Feb-17.png


DXY-Feb-17.png


 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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www.vtradefx.com
Happy Presidents Day!!

Keeping things simple today. With US markets closed we are experiencing low volatility.

Not much change in the dollar index. Expect to see one more move lower before we see an impulsive wave higher.

DXY-Feb-20.png


Price responded well to the cited level in EURGBP and suggests the correction is complete. Consider moving stops to around 0.86000. Enjoy your day, relax, be patient and let price to run its course over the next couple of days.

EURGBP-Feb-20.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
The dollar has strengthened today as Federal Reserve policymakers pointed to a potential U.S. interest rate rise next month, turning attention to the bullish fundamentals of its economy.

The Dollar Index is continuing to play out as expected. I have marked the low of 16th as wave 2, we now need to see if price can break through the key level resistance.

DXY-Feb-21.png


Euro is trading weaker even with stong PMI surveys from France and Germany. More to follow on this. Anyhow this has helped our EURGBP which has worked out beautifully.

EURGBP-Feb-21.png


There are a few charts I could touch on today which make for interesting viewing but I will remained focused on Europe.

The French 10 Year Treasury is considered the main measure of market concern over Marine Le Pen's election chances. With so much talk over Brexit, will Britain actually have to leave the EU? If France were to pull out surely this would be the end of the EU as we know it. Worrying still is the situation in Italy and other member states.

The chart below shows the gap in French bond yields and its German equivalent. This is the biggest gap since 2012.

FR10YTRR-Feb-21.png


With so much going on in the world of politics at the moment, try not to get caught up and lose focus. As traders our job is to simply identify how the events impact the markets.
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
Today we are focusing on the weak Canadian Dollar. The soft data released today reinforces the view that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to follow the Fed with a rates hike.There is also pressure in the form of weaker oil prices.

Before we look at a potential long opportunity in the loonie lets look at Dollar and Oil to give us further clues future price action.

DXY-Feb-22.png


Lets look at Oil which is also at a key level

CLc1-Feb-22.png


If prices react as we expect in Dollar and Oil this will pave the way for potential long opportunities in USDCAD

USDCAD-Feb-22.png
 

vtfx

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Feb 8, 2017
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Dollar lost ground against a basket of currencies with a perceived lack of progress in tax reform, public spending and dovish than expected Fed meeting minutes from yesterday.

The euro set off higher in early morning trading but we now see price at a key resistance level.

Lets look at the Dollar Index. We are still bullish on dollar and see the minor moves as simple pull backs, however we need to see price break higher for us to consider longs.

DXY-Feb-23.png


The euro as we spoke of made some good gains but again we see this as corrective. Price at a key level so lets wait and see how it reacts at this level.

EURUSD-Feb-23.png
 

vtfx

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Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
24th Feb 2017

Keeping things simple on the last trading day of the week. Not rushing into any trades so in keeping with the Euro/Dollar theme please find the Dollar Index and EUR/USD below.

Before we look at the charts lets try to gauge some sentiment from what is actually going on.

The Dollar fell to a weekly low as the trumpflation trade which saw the greenback hit 14 year highs faded. With little ease on new developments, comments from Mnuchin suggested much work was still needed in tax reform.

Meanwhile the Euro was set for gains having been lifted by the alliance of Macron and Bayrou.

Lets see if we next week gives us more information regarding elections and Fed intentions, the question is can the Trumpflation trade be sustained?

I see a low forming a wave 2 in Dollar Index. Need to see a push higher for an impulsive continuation.

DXY-Feb-24.png


Euro is stalling at the key level

EURUSD-Feb-24.png


Have a great weekend. Back next week with more daily analysis
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
Dollar has weakened as investors await details on Trumps tax plans. The concern is that the planned speech by the President tomorrow will not reveal many details regarding the economic agenda.

The Euro has benefited from polls showing far right anit EU leader Le Pen was losing traction in France's presidential race.

Sterling slipped to a low on reports from Scotland was preparing to call another independence referendum when formal Brexit negotiations are triggered in March.

The first chart today of Dollar Index illustrates the short term weakness but longer term bullish forecast.

DXY-Feb-27.png


The next charts show USDJPY with the US 10 Year Treasury overlaid.The two are positively correlated. For that reason I see the USDJPY testing the low before moving higher.

USDJPY-Primary-Analysis-Feb-27-1559-PM-6-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
The Yen has been the significant mover overnight as investors seek a safe haven ahead of President Trump speech to Congress.

Details over the Presidents speech, his ability to deliver legislation and European issues has left markets worrying.

Investors have sought the security of the Yen, Treasuries and German Bunds.

The market is currently looking for greater clarity on a number of issues.

We personally do not trade prior to the news. It is often a flip of the coin and even if you do get the play right its easy to be stopped out by whipsaws or broker spreads.

Fundamentally we see the pound as weak. Clarity again is the theme or should I say 'lack of'. We will first look at the Dollar Index and then at a potential short opportunity in Sterling.

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Feb-28-1216-PM-4-hour.png


Consider shorting if price breaks the low at 1.23800

GBPUSD-Primary-Analysis-Feb-28-1217-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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www.vtradefx.com
Price has played out as we forecast. We will look at the charts to see how we can best manage the positions but before we do lets have a look at some market news.

Trumps speech had minimal impact on the market, however it was the hawkish comments from Fed officials which have increased expectations of a rates hike.

Weak economic data and political nerves have weighed largely on Sterling.

We highlighted EURUSD and GBPUSD as at key levels. They have now moved in favor and you should be looking at managing the positions.

There are numerous ways to manage trades, if you want more info just let me know and I can go into more detail.

Starting with GBPUSD, I would look to be moving stop levels and lock in some profits. See the resistance and where you can potentially close the trade if like us you forecast a potential reversal

GBPUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-01-1409-PM-4-hour.png


EUR is lagging behind GBP in terms of weakness but we expect it to break the low in EURUSD.

EURUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-01-1406-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

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Feb 8, 2017
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www.vtradefx.com
Many Analysts believe the gains are limited in the greenback due to worries about the impact higher rates and a strong dollar will have on global growth.

We however see some near term strength in the dollar and so far so good with our forecast

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-02-1426-PM-4-hour.png


For those of you who followed our USDJPY trade it has worked out perfectly and looks set for higher levels. By all means take some partial profits but leave something on the table and lets see how far this can go

USDJPY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-02-2037-PM-6-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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www.vtradefx.com
I don't see many opportunities today in the market so I want to focus on one chart.

You will remember me posting USDJPY last week and the price played out exactly as forecast. For those who are wondering what to do from here, I would consider adding the position as I predict further upside.

USDJPY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-06-1815-PM-6-hour.png


I will be back tomorrow with more updates
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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38
www.vtradefx.com
Dollar rises but eyes are on this weeks Non Farm Payrolls.

The Swiss Franc has shown signs of weakness as news of a rise in their foreign exchange reserves and statements from the SNB Chairman that the France was "significantly over-valued" weighed on the currency.

The Pound Sterling has fallen after weak consumer spending.

Overall trading ranges remain tight

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-07-1759-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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www.vtradefx.com
The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, while the euro gained after European Central Bank head Mario Draghi suggested it was less necessary to prop up the market through ultra-loose monetary policy.

The dollar did hit a three week high against the Yen.

I won't be making any trades today with Non Farm Payrolls due out tomorrow.

Don't get finicky about analysis, lets see what happens post news before forecasting any moves
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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www.vtradefx.com
Crude oil resumed a downward drift and global equity markets rose on Friday after a robust U.S. jobs report drove home the strength of the American economy and set the stage for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week.

U.S. employment increased more than expected in February and wages rose steadily, providing the Fed a green light to raise rates at a policy-setting meeting on March 15.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 235,000 jobs as the construction sector recorded its largest gain in nearly a decade due to unseasonably warm weather, the U.S. Labor Department said.

Oil prices fell further on reports of heavy oversupply in spite of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The euro jumped to a fresh three-week high against the dollar on a report that the European Central Bank had discussed the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of its quantitative easing program

It has been very tricky trading the dollar recently and when you think bulls will resume control ECB reports come out.

I will post a few charts of where I see price heading but personally I will wait until next week to place any new trades when I things settle and I see come clarity.

We do have two trades on, one which is in good profit even though gains of the day have been lost and the other is currently floating in and out of profit. These will be managed closely.

Its a frustrating market at the moment so be patient, do not get get despondent and remember Pareto rule 80/20 which can be applied to trading. 80% of the time the market isn't worth trading, 20% of the time it is.

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-10-1401-PM-4-hour.png


EURUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-10-1353-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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38
www.vtradefx.com
The dollar recovered a foothold on Monday after its worst three days of losses since early December, the impact of higher U.S. market interest rates turning it positive on the day against both the euro Dollar Index

Sterling, along with the Canadian dollar the worst major performer of the past fortnight against the greenback, rose almost half a percent after the devolved Scottish government demanded the right to hold a new referendum on independence.

But a gain of 0.2 percent for the dollar put an end to a wave of profit-taking that has taken hold since last Thursday's policy meeting yielded hints the European Central Bank is starting to think more about how to react to an improving euro zone economy.

Friday's solid jobs number has still cemented the case for a rise in U.S. Federal Reserve rates this week that will long predate any rise in the European equivalents, and long-term market rates are also far higher.

Belgian central banker Jan Smets also told the Wall Street Journal that the ECB had not taken a first step towards removing stimulus.

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-13-1805-PM-4-hour.png


EURUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-13-1749-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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12
38
www.vtradefx.com
The dollar has risen today, bolstered by an expected interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week and helped by political risks in Europe amid Dutch and French elections that have pressured European currencies.

Sterling, meanwhile, slipped after falling to an eight-week low, on worries about a possible second Scottish independence referendum and the triggering of Article 50, which will formally begin the negotiations that will take Britain out of the EU

Investors this week will have their eyes on the Trump administration's fiscal 2018 federal budget plan, which will be released on Thursday, and a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Germany on Friday.

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-13-1805-PM-4-hour.png



DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-14-1803-PM-4-hour.png



GBPUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-13-1815-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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38
www.vtradefx.com
Its the day we have been waiting for, don't we just love Yellen!!

I will not be posting any charts pre fed but instead give a quick news recap. The markets are generally choppy so lets hope for decent price action post fed.

I believe the rate hike is fully priced in but what investors will be looking at is the Fed's path moving forward.

The dollar was subdued in European trade on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise U.S. interest rates and investors looking for clues on future Fed monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan also began a two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. It is expected to hold its policy steady and stress that inflation is nowhere near levels that justify talk of withdrawing its massive stimulus

British Prime Minister Theresa May won parliamentary backing on Monday to begin the process of leaving the European Union, as Scotland considered another referendum on independence from the UK

The euro edged up , as concern about Wednesday's Dutch parliamentary election was offset by market speculation the European Central Bank may be ready to wind down its stimulus programme.

The Canadian dollar strengthened on Wednesday against its U.S. counterpart as oil prices rallied, but gains for the loonie were restrained ahead of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

Back with more updates tomorrow when I expect to have more clarity on where price is heading next
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
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38
www.vtradefx.com
Well no surprise of the rate hike but as I guessed what moved the market was the Feds intention moving forward.

Our forecasts have been consistent so far but I still want further clarity. I want prices to break some key levels before placing any new trades.

The dollar sank to a one-month low, while some surprise hints on the chances of a rise in UK interest rates drove sterling higher as investors digested the fallout of a second rise in U.S. rates in three months.

Investors snapped up the greenback at the start of European trade, judging it looked cheap after sharp falls following the U.S. Federal Reserve's failure to point aggressively to further rises in the official premium for holding the currency.

But the dollar struggled to make more progress through the European morning and waned as New York traders arrived at their desks.

The euro was also buoyed by a Dutch election defeat for far-right leader Geert Wilders which eased broader fears of a populist drift in European polls this year.

Yet the mood was still edgy and there was buying of the market's favourite safe havens for capital. The Swiss franc gained almost half a percent against the euro while the yen inched back into positive territory, touching a more than two-week high.

Lets look at the Dollar Index and EURUSD. We are long EURUSD and have managed the position well. Ideally I would like to see price break through support in the Dollar Index.

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-16-1554-PM-8-hour.png


EURUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-16-1550-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
0
12
38
www.vtradefx.com
The dollar fell to its lowest since November against a basket of currencies on Monday as investors lost confidence in prospects for a U.S. fiscal spending boost under President Donald Trump after his failure to pass a major healthcare reform bill.

Trump's inability to deliver on his campaign pledge to overhaul the nation's healthcare system marked a big setback for a Republican president whose own party controls Congress, and raised doubts over whether he will be able to see through tax reforms and a proposed spike in spending


DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-27-1650-PM-4-hour.png



EURUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-27-1634-PM-4-hour.png



GBPUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-27-1644-PM-4-hour.png
 

vtfx

Trader
Feb 8, 2017
27
0
12
38
www.vtradefx.com
The dollar steadied on Tuesday after its worst week since U.S. President Donald Trump’s election in November, promises of more rises in Federal Reserve interest rates this year helping it recover from multi-month lows in still shaky global markets.

A dip in iron ore prices helped weaken higher-risk currencies including the Australian and Canadian dollars, with eyes also shifting to an appearance by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz

The index that measures the broader strength of their U.S. counterpart .DXY was trading almost half a percent above Monday's four-and-a-half month low but up just 0.1 percent on the day after a volatile overnight session in Asia.

The yen, which has gained 4 percent in nine days as faith erodes in the Trump White House's ability to deliver tax reform and a promised public spending boost, was flat at 110.74 yen per dollar

The Aussie, battered by the weakening in global sentiment and a fall in the prices China pays for its iron ore, was down 0.3 percent

The Aussie I believe is at a key level if if breaks down could lead to lower prices. See the chart which shows AUD with Iron Ore Futures contract overlaid.

Dollar Index looks like it has further downside which could present an opportunity for longs in EURUSD off the recent pullback

DXY-Primary-Analysis-Mar-28-1553-PM-4-hour.png


EURUSD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-28-1551-PM-4-hour.png


AUD-Primary-Analysis-Mar-28-1205-PM-1-day.png