Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD & BoE Interest Rate Decision: Will the downside pressure return to the Sterling?
8/4/2016

Today at 11:00 GMT will be released the BoE interest rate decision, where the markets are expecting a rate cut by 25 bp. Currently, the rates stand at 0.50% and that could give the bears enough momentum to push lower the Cable towards the post-Brexit lows. 30 minutes later will speak the BoE's Governor Carney, where the markets will be closely watching, as it's speech could give us further hints in terms of economic measures for the United Kingdom in the mid-term, following the Brexit's outcome.

The technical picture for GBP/USD at H4 chart is still very bearish and also, it's trapped inside the post-Brexit range. A pullback is expected around the 1.3358 level towards the support zone of 1.2845 if the BoE's stance is dovish than expected and the central bank decides to cut rates. However, if there are no major actions by the BoE today, then we can see a slight rise and test the 1.3615 level, where the 38.2% retracement zone (from pre-Brexit's peak) is placed.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9909

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls showed weakness
8/4/2016

On the daily EUR/USD chart one may see that the attack of the bulls have spluttered. The inability of the bulls to hold the pair above 1.1175 points at their weakness. Whether it's temporary or we are speaking about the resumption of bearish trend will become clear in the coming days. For now the pair's falling to the upper border of the previous bearish channel (23.8% Fibonacci of the last medium-term bearish wave).

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9910/Screenshot_2016_08_04_07_01_14.png

On H1 EUR/USD completed Fakeout-Shakeout and "3 Indians" pattern. The nearest resistance is near 1.1170, support levels are at 1.1114 and 1.1080.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9910/Screenshot_2016_08_04_07_01_30.png

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9910

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie is searching for a new driver
8/4/2016

On the daily chart USD/CAD returned to the levels inside the rising triangle. A break above its upper bordrer will help to restore the medium-term bullish trend. As a result, the pair may realize 161.8% of AB=CD pattern target at 1.3520. On the other hand, decline below the diagonal support will lead to continuation of the decline to 1.2720 (88.6% of the "Shark" pattern target).

On H1 USD/CAD completed the widenind wedge pattern. After correction to waves 4-5 the beras seized initiative that allowed the pair to reach 127.2% of teh Shark parren target. The pair formed the double bottom and is currently consolidation in the 1.3-1.314 area. The break of this range will determine further dicrection of the pair.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9911

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bullish rally
8/4/2016

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1235, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so we’ve got the current downward movement. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1120 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair found a support on the 55 Moving Average. Also, there’s a possible “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1120. However, if a pullback from this support happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1196 – 1.1222.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9912

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation going to be continued
8/4/2016

The price is moving up and down along a resistance at 1.3339. So, the pair is likely going to achieve a support near the 55 Moving Average. If bears be stopped here, then an upward movement becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3471.

We’ve got a consolidation, but also there’s a local “Double Top”. In this case, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.3247. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.3370 – 1.3400.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9913

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave going to end
8/4/2016

Wave 4 has been ended in a form of a “Double Three”, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). It’s likely that we’ve got wave in progress, which main target is 2/8 Murrey Math Level. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has been declining in wave . Therefore, bears are likely going to reach 4/8 Murrey Math Level in the short term. If wave (v) finishes at this level, bulls will probably try to deliver wave [ii].

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9914

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro has corrected
8/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1130/40, 1.1105; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1130/40; SL — 1.1110; TP1 — 1.1220; TP2 – 1.1270.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought is finished.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9917

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: waiting for the end of correction
8/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3270; resistance – 1.3370, 1.3480.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.3270; SL — 1.3250; TP1 — 1.3370; TP2 — 1.3480.

Reason: a bullish Cloud with growing range; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought is finished.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9918

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: the Bulls are on the attack
8/4/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7560, 0.7590; resistance – 0.7620.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7750.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B are growing up; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9919

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.4900
8/4/2016

EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.4900
Next sell target - 1.4500
EUR/AUD continues to fall strongly inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which began earlier - when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance level 1.4900. The active minor impulse wave (iii) belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) form the middle of February.

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.4500 (which reversed earlier impulse waves (iii), 1 and (i) in May, April and June, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9924

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone
8/4/2016

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.4400
EUR/CAD continues to fall after the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4730 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the start of April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

EUR/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4400 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 1.4280.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9925

 

[riki143]

Key option levels: August 4
8/4/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 16 208 ↑ + 50 131 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.1176; 1.1198; 1.1223; 1.1259
Closest support levels 1.1119; 1.1084; 1.1041; 1.0995
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell pair below 1.1119, with target points at 1.1084 and 1.1041
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1176 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1198 and 1.1223


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 991 ↑ + 1 280 ↑
Closest resistance levels 101.45; 101.77; 102.18; 102.64
Closest support levels 100.74; 100.54; 100.26; 99.88
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.45, with the target points at 101.77 and 102.18
Alternative scenario Moving below 100.74 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.54 and 100.26


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 424 ↑ + 614 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3091; 1.3122; 1.3179; 1.3254
Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3026; 1.2972; 1.2900
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.3055, with the target points at 1.3026 and 1.2972
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3091 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3122 and 1.3179
EUR JPY CAD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9926

 

[advoghado]

Good analysis I also follow the portal FX Bazooka and find lots of good information there.

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY & US NFP July Release: It's time for greenback's bulls?
8/5/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US Non-Farm Employment change, where the markets are expecting a decrease from 287K to 180 for July's reading. However, last month's data was very positive and Wednesday's US ADP data gave some hints that we could see another positive NFP release today. During the week, some Fed's officials have been talking about the good shape that US economy is having nowadays and following a “muted” tone from FOMC minutes, traders will be highly expecting this release.

Our technical overview for USD/JPY at H4 chart is calling for further declines, as we have been seeing a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA, after a failed breakout above that dynamic resistance offered by the moving average. There is a critical support placed around the 100.35 level, where we could expect a breakout only if the US NFP is weaker than expected and eventually it can make new “post-Brexit” lows across the board. The bullish scenario can be calling for a very strong support around the 100.35 level, that could give fresh momentum to the pair in order to rally towards weekly's highs.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9927

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD is stuck in the dead area
8/5/2016

On the daly chart the pair keeps moving in line with scenario we've outlined in the previous article: the recoil down from the upper border of the descending trend channel (painted in red) and the following growth towards 1.1175. If the bulls manage to reach this level and then renew July high, the pair will likely move towards 1.1260 and 1.1340. On the other hand, inability to hold above 1.1114 will show that the buyers are weak.

On H1 EUR/USD formed descending trend channel. The nearest support levels are at 1.1114 and 1.1082. Look for resistance near 1.1170 and 1.1235.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9928

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish wave [iii] going to start soon
8/5/2016

Wave was possible ended yesterday, so there’s time for a local correction. Previously, wave 4 finished in a form of a “Double Three”, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). The main target for wave [ii] is 3/8 Murrey Math Level, which could be a jumping-off point for wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of was ended near 4/8 Murrey Math Level. So, the price is likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. If a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (i).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9929

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears took hold of pound
8/5/2016

On the daily chart GBP/USD came to the lower border of the medium-term consolidation range of 1.3075-1.3494. The break of support will activate AB=CD pattern with target at 1.2870.

On H1 the materialization of the models "3 Indians" and "Head and Shoulders" at 161.8% AB=CD target made the pair return inside the 1.3071-1.33 trade channel and settle close to its lower border. The sentiment remains bearish, and the move to 1.316 (23.8%), 1.321 (38.2%), 1.3245 (50%) and 1.328 (61.8%) should be used for opening short positions.

More;
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9930

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro hovered above the cloud
8/5/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.1130/40, 1.1105; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1170; SL — 1.1190; TP1 — 1.1105; TP2 – 1.1080.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling down Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9931

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish mood is active
8/5/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.80; resistance – 101.50, 101.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 101.50; SL — 101.70; TP1 — 100.60; TP2 — 99.60.

Reason: actual dead cross formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9932

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears dominating after "V-Top" pattern
8/5/2016

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, so the price is trading near the Moving Average lines. Therefore, it’s likely that the market is going to decline towards a support at 1.1083 – 1.1059 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, a correction price movement will be on the table, so we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235.

The price has faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, so we’ve got a local flat in progress. Under these circumstances, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 Moving Average during the day. However, if a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1145 – 1.1032.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9933