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When Will the Crypto Bear Market End? Analysts Share Their Predictions

November 3, 2018 at 12:01 by Arathur Stephen

The cryptocurrency bear market continued in October, causing Bitcoin, an innovative asset to trend lower as it fluctuated within a modest range. The founder and CEO of Regroup, Joe DiPasquale noted that investors have adopted a “‘wait and see’ approach,”  which has caused Bitcoin and several digital assets to trade range-bound.

Several major cryptos suffered losses during the month, and the value of the broader digital currency market was lost. Nevertheless, these declines were modest when compared to those of several other periods.

According to the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index (MVDA), the overall cryptocurrency market lost about 8% during the month of October. This is a key benchmark based on the value of the top 100 largest digital assets.


Data from CryptoCompare reveals that Bitcoin held up considerately well, peaking at $7,234 roughly halfway through October, a roughly 9.8% increase from BTC’s starting price of $6,589. However, the number 1 digital coin reversed, wiping off its gains for the month and closing the period 3.9% lower at $6,332.

When Will the Crypto Bear Market End?

At this point, the question that weighs on everyone’s mind is, when will the bear market in digital currencies end?

The co-founder and CEO of Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes in an interview shared his prediction with Yahoo Finance UK saying that the current market trend could last up to another 12–18 months.  When explaining this forecast, he highlighted that looking at antecedents will help us understand the bear markets.

I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in Bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money.

One market observer, in particular, did agree with Hayes’ prediction of a sustained bear market. He was Eric Ervin, the CEO of Blockforce Capital. He has been quoted as saying:

We agree with the overall sentiment of Arthur’s comment. Our current bear market has not been unusually long.

Ervin further added:

Since 2010, there have been 4 bull cycles followed by 4 bear cycles. The average bull market lasts 449 days, and bear markets have lasted an average of 306 days, a ratio of 1.47. The last bull market lasted 818 days, so by this methodology our bear market length should be about 557 days, or an additional 241 days to the current 316 day bear market.

Cryptocurrency bull vs bear cycles

The CEO asserted:

The previous Bitcoin bull markets were caused by both speculation and believers, and we feel confident that the next catalyst for a bull market will be institutional adoption.

Analyst Optimistic Forecast

Other analysts have provided a promising outlook on the digital currency markets. For example, DiPasquale, who is also CEO of the first cryptocurrency fund of hedge funds, BitBull Capital has described Bitcoin’s “stability around the $6,000 level” as a “great sign,” stressing that it gives the virtual coin “plenty of room to shoot up in positive market conditions.”

DiPasquale also emphasized what the market’s future direction depends on:

As for the bear market lasting another 12 — 18 months, we don’t believe that the market is going to follow such a schedule…(however it) depends on positive developments, and the next couple of months are going to be interesting due to the launch of Bitcoin settled futures, new custody services, more institutional investments flowing into crypto and progress in terms of ETF proposals.

Technical Analysis

Furthermore, the technical analysis performed by the publisher of the newsletter CryptoPatterns, Jon Pearlstone, shows that digital currencies could break out of their relative malaise soon. He noted:

October through December are usually the most volatile time period for most markets (see most 2017 crypto charts as a good example) so timing says we will see a move out of the current price range and increased volatility sooner than later.

Pearlstone also added:

When the current price range breaks ‘for real’ expect strong volume and high volatility with the first upside target at $7250 and a test of $5000 if we break down below 2018 lows.

Sentiment Analysis

Another helpful tool for determining the market’s future movements is sentiment analysis. The data can be calculated by culling information from social networks like Twitter and then predicting whether it is positive or negative.

The TIE, a cryptocurrency analytics platform has provided this exact information, which is progressive and also predictive in nature. Joshua Frank, co-founder of The TIE explained:

We generated monthly sentiment scores from 0–100 and we charted out the correlation between the change in monthly sentiment vs. the change in the overall crypto market cap. We saw an extremely strong correlation between the two variables.

Cryptocurrency Sentiment Data

Frank also stated:

For October we saw a 42% increase in sentiment meaning that we are predicting positive price movement in the overall Crypto market in November. The correlation between the change in coin sentiment and change in overall market cap is greater than .5 which is tremendously high.

As for whether Bitcoin and other digital currencies will break out of their weakness in November, only time will tell. However, for us at Earn Forex, one thing is certain; countless eyes will be on the watch.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.

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