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Wheat Prices Aren’t Going Rise Much Further

October 11, 2010 at 15:06 by Vladimir Vyun

The unusual heat in many wheat-producing countries, especially Russia and parts of Eastern Europe, this summer hurt crops and decreased output from autumn harvest. Concerns for possible wheat shortage increased prices and boosted demand for exports from wheat-producing countries unaffected by unfavorable weather, primarily from the US. Can we expect wheat deficit and further increase of prices?

The scenario of a price surge doesn’t look likely. Lower output in countries hit by bad weather may be outweighed by production in such countries as the US, Canada and Australia. Even in countries like Russia and European Union, where crops were harmed by weather, improving weather boosts prospect for winter wheat. Global inventories of wheat also remain plentiful, making possibility of a deficit very low.

Global output is expected to total from 643 million metric tons to 644 million. Global inventories are predicted to reach 177.8 million tons this month and 183 million by the end of this year. Global wheat consumption is estimated in a range from 657 million ton to 661.2 million. Prices forecast to remain mainly in a range of $4.95-$5.65 per bushel.

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2 Responses to “Wheat Prices Aren’t Going Rise Much Further”

  1. Kyle

    It really did seem like wheat was just along for the ride after the USDA curiously again lost 300 million bushels of corn and also gave a bullish estimate for beans. Wheat was limit up without much to back it up. 4.95 to 5.65, huh? How quickly do you see these prices being reached?


    enivid Reply:

    I’d expect such prices when the prospects for the winter wheat will become more clear.


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