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Soybeans Rally 1% As Harvest Falls Short of Estimates

October 20, 2020 at 18:50 by Andrew Moran

Soybean futures rallied as much as 1% on Tuesday after the US government’s harvest fell short of market estimates, adding to the country’s supply woes. With foreign demand strengthening in the final quarter of 2020 and the US dollar continuing to experience weakness, could the crop continue to trend higher and eventually test $11 in the coming weeks?

November soybean futures surged $0.10, or 0.95%, to $10.6425 per bushel at 17:54 GMT on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Soybean prices have been on a tear since July, soaring 18.25% over the last three months and trading at their best levels in more than two years. Year-to-date, the crop is up 11.3%.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), 75% of the soybean crop was harvested. While this is ahead of the five-year average of 58%, it did come in below the average analyst estimate of 79%. The USDA also reported that 64% of the soybean crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up from the previous week’s 63% rating. It also matches the market expectation.

The USDA also reported that 48% of domestic corn had been harvested, while 61% of corn conditions were rated in good-to-excellent condition.

In a separate report, the USDA confirmed that private exporters reported export sales of 132,00 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020–2021 marketing season.

A lower greenback has contributed to the general boom in agriculture prices. The US Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of currencies, shed 0.4% to 93.05, from an opening of 93.42. The index has slumped 3.5% year-to-date, and additional weakness is expected amid inflation concerns. A weaker buck is good for commodities priced in dollars because it makes it cheaper for foreign investors to purchase.

In other agricultural commodities, November corn futures picked up $0.0375, or 0.93%, to $4.09 per pound. November wheat futures tacked on $0.065, or 1.04%, to $6.335 per bushel. December coffee futures fell $0.0015, or 0.14%, to $1.0475 a pound.

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