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Positive Sentiment Rises: Recipe for the Next Bull Run

January 31, 2021 at 11:23 by Ibrahim Anifowoshe

The Satoshi street was stormed on Friday, January 29, after Elon Musk changed his Twitter bio to “#bitcoin.” This quickly boosted the price of Bitcoin into breaking past its past two weeks downward momentum. The price surged to $38,000 and settled back to $34,000. At 12:34 GMT, the price per coin was at $33,685, losing 1.01% in the last 24 hours.

The price of Bitcoin is now consolidating around $32k to $34k. Simultaneously, BTC saw a massive influx of new users investing in Bitcoin. Analyst Willy Woo noted on Twitter that the new users entering the market per day is higher than any other time.

He said:

An indication of the sheer numbers of new Bitcoin users arriving here. Even during this consolidation, new users arriving per day is higher than any other time in this bull market.

What’s most interesting about this is that this report comes out at a time when Bitcoin users and supporters are planning for a GameStop-like event in Bitcoin. The r/Bitcoin subreddit has seen a new spike in new users joining the community.

new reddit users supporting bitcoin

The Block chart above shows a sharp spike in the numbers of people entering the community. The question to be asked is this: are these people here to make a quick buck? Or are they here?

For now, what will be right to say is that this is not a retail frenzy around Bitcoin. It is clear that this new rise in positive sentiment may be setting up Bitcoin for its 2021 bull run.

Indicators for the next bull run

The analysis by Willy Woo points out a number key indicators:

First, Woo mentions that there is a shrinking BTC liquidity and large number of Bitcoins being moved off exchanges. What this suggests is that Bitcoin buyers are strong HODLers and they will seldom sell. The Glassnode chart below show this fading liquidity change.

glassnode chart showing hodlers will hold off selling

Second, he points out the key metric of SOPR indicator from Glassnode to show that selling is not in sight. He writes:

SOPR tracks profit-taken when coins being sold. It hit the 1.0 line which means we completely reset. To go lower we’d need to have investors sell at a loss. This would need a bear phase (that’s is NOT on the cards with the current setup)

Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain relative-strength-index (RSI) is currently in the lower band of the bull run. This is closer to the reset stage and suggests that the price is no more overheated.

In his concluding notes, Woo writes:

With the current flows of capital coming in, the consolidation floor is expected to be $29k on daily closes (short of a black swan event), upper bound would be $56k (but rising quickly each day)

Author of Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB also mentions that the S&P 500-implied price of Bitcoin (BTC) is also 60K.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.

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