Commodity Blog

Commodity news, technical and fundamental analysis, market data on precious metals, energies, industrial metals, and soft commodities


Orange Juice Extends Losses on Falling Consumption, Hurricane Michael

October 12, 2018 at 13:36 by Andrew Moran

Orange juice futures are trading lower at the end of the trading week, extending their losses once again. While orange juice prices have remained in positive territory so far this year, they have taken a beating over the last three months, and they could boost those losses on a bearish report and the hurricane.

November orange juice futures dipped $0.05, or 0.04%, to $1.4265 per pound at 14:00 GMT on Friday on the US ICE Futures exchange. Year-to-date, orange juice is up about 0.5%, but it has declined 16% since September. Orange juice prices are poised for a weekly tumble of 0.5%.

According to a new study by Markestrat, the planet is consuming fewer amounts of orange juice. Examining 40 nations between 2003 and 2017, global orange juice consumption declined 4%, from 1.956 million tons to 1.882 million tons. The biggest drops were seen in the US (43%), Germany (40%), the UK (22%), and France (12%). There has been commendable growth in China and Brazil.

The aftermath of Hurricane Michael will likely result in a negative impact for Florida’s orange market. The historical natural disaster was the third-most intense hurricane since 1935, the strongest to hit the Florida Panhandle, and the fourth-strongest landfalling hurricane in US history in terms of wind speed. So far, five deaths have been confirmed, and it is estimated that there has been $9 billion in damages

This comes after the National Agriculture Statistics Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA-NASS) issued its first forecast of the 2018–2019 season, and it is good news for an industry that has been decimated in recent years. According to the report, orange production will top 79 million boxes, up from 44.95 million boxes a year ago, representing a 76% growth.

Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus, is pleased by the bullish forecast.

Obviously, we are pleased as we can possibly be for our growers to hear positive news they haven’t heard in a long time. After combating greening for so long and going through Hurricane Irma last season, today’s forecast means we truly could be on a path to recovery.

The most encouraging piece about this is knowing that our growers will be able to deliver the best orange juice and fresh grapefruit in the world to consumers who might have been missing it.

In other agricultural commodities, December corn futures were flat at $3.692 per pound. December wheat futures rose $0.025, or 0.44%, to $5.102 a bushel. November soybean futures jumped $0.0475, or 0.55%, to $8.63 per bushel. December coffee futures climbed $0.09, or 0.8%, to $1.138 per pound.

If you have any questions and comments on the commodities today, use the form below to reply.

Leave a Reply