Commodity Blog

Bitcoin has seen 3 new all-time highs in October alone, with the first being on October 13 at $5,842, the second on October 21 at $6,180, while the third and latest all-time high was achieved yesterday at $6,316.85. Volume has increased somewhat on BitStamp, and there appears to be slightly less selling in this post-high period, for now at least.

Select altcoins have had rallies in the meantime, even though they have been much less pronounced and intensive percentage wise. This of course can be mostly attributed to the rise of bitcoin, which has skewed the parities on many of the alternative crypto currency btc trading pairs. Micro caps have been especially affected, again notwithstanding the smaller number of crypto assets that have managed to secure record gains, in these past few weeks.

Bitcoin cash has almost jumped two-fold in price from the $302.385 weekly low, right up to the new $522.7 monthly high. The all-time high stands unwavering at $972.5, and presents a possible medium term target to aim for, as well as being a final resistance level. Bitcoin gold has been trading for a week, with most volume coming from trading pairs on HitBTC, YoBit, Binance, and Bitfinex. Litecoin has endured around $50 during the larger part of October, oscillating between the $48 monthly low and $70.249 monthly high. Ethereum on the other hand has moved very little from $300 price point, and seems to be indicating signs of accumulation. Price volatility has remained restricted to a trading range that encompasses the $353.34 monthly high and $272.2 monthly low. We have a similar situation with ethereum classic too, with price keeping above the $9.59 monthly low, and under the $13.59 monthly high.

Primary bitcoin support levels are set at the $5,366 weekly and $4,137.96 monthly lows. Numerous intersecting trend lines converge at the $5,366 weekly low as well. Secondary supports for the ongoing trading range sit at $5,872.75, $5,754.5, $5,645.18, $5,591.17, $5,407.07, $4,978.58, $4,740.91, $4,700.06, and at $4,676.44.

Aside from the $6,316.85 all-time high (which is also the monthly and weekly high) serving as an obvious final resistance, secondary short term points of contention are noticeable at $6,226.98, and at the former $6,180.45 all-time high.

Fibonacci levels do no overlap with the majority of supports, aside from the 0.236 fib ($5,082.55) which is in close proximity to the $5,101.91 support. Fibonacci extensions calculated from the ensuing trading range are entrenched at $7,306.92 (fib 1.618), $8,916.45 (fib 2.618), $10,525.98 (fib 3.618), and at $11.520 (fib 4.236).

The 30-day MA has managed to carry above the 180-day and 365-day MAs with relative ease. This was to be expected though, given the occurrence of the prior 30-day MA bullish crossover on October 29 (GMT 18:00). The 180-day and 365 day MA are moving in sync, and a bearish crossover with the 30-day MA collapsing under the pair, is conceivable if bearish sentiment persists and/or accelerates. The EMA is intimately aligned with the 30-day MA, while the VWMA is now firmly overlaying the 180-day MA.

Bolinger bands on the hourly seem to be warning of a possible expansion of the bands, which could bring about a widening of the band gap, paired with heightened forthcoming volatility. The 4-hour on the other hand, has already broadened greatly, with price lingering below the upper band, considerably ahead of the median line. The daily bands are contracting, and a jump above the outer band is feasible, albeit unlikely.

The %R Williams is exhibiting overbought conditions, while the RSI appears to be neutral. However, the remainder of the day could see an alignment of both indicators, thus laying the groundwork for a near-term bounce back, if volume is able adapt to new circumstances. The MACD has manifested two bullish and two separate bearish crossovers in the last 72 hours (bullish crossovers are marked in green, bearish in red). OBV is rather high considering the faltering hourly volume; a reversal of this trend may be imminent.

Bitcoin started the previous run-up to the current all-time high, from the $5,366 weekly low, which was recorded on October 25 (03:00 GMT). The actual $6,316.85 all-time high was achieved on October 29 (20:00 GMT). Since then, the price has held above today’s $6,085.32 daily low, and has yet to cross above the prior high.

If you have any questions and comments on bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.