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Gold, Silver Rally with Growing Fed Rate Hike Uncertainty

September 6, 2016 at 17:16 by Andrew Moran

August was not exactly a great month for gold and silver. The precious metals’ lackluster performance was due to positive US economic data and the increased likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September. All of that has somewhat changed.

One day after the Labor Day long weekend, gold and silver are rallying and the odds of a rate hike this month are dwindling.

December gold futures spiked $21.20, or 1.60%, to $1,347.90 per ounce at 16:51 GMT on Tuesday. Gold will finish the trading day at a two-week high. The last time the yellow metal traded at this level was on August 23.

Silver is also participating in the rally. December silver futures rose $0.59, or 3.04%, to $19.95 an ounce. Silver has not been over the important $20 benchmark since the middle of August. Silver tumbled 8% last month.

What exactly is contributing to the rally in precious metals? A new report showing weak domestic data.

One week after the ISM manufacturing survey dipped to under 50, the ISM non-manufacturing survey fell to 51.4, which is the lowest it has been since February 2010. This survey represents the much larger services sector, which accounts for 70% of the US economy. It signaled a concerning trend for traders.

The two next important dates for investors will be September 15 and 16. These dates are when the retail sales numbers for August, producer price index (PPI), regional Federal Reserve surveys and the consumer price index (CPI) are released.

Last week, the Department of Labor announced that the US economy created 151,000 jobs. This is much lower than the 180,000 jobs that were expected to be added. The weak non-farm US jobs numbers put a damper on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raising rates later this month. August’s tepid employment report helped gold and silver prices rally just before the weekend.

Members of the FOMC will hold their next meeting on September 20 and 21. The chances of a rate hike have slipped to 18%, down from 40% early last week, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

If you have any questions and comments on the commodities today, use the form below to reply.

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