Commodity Blog

Gold futures are slipping to end the trading week, but that is not raining on the yellow metal’s parade. In addition to being on track for a modest weekly gain, gold prices enjoyed an incredible monthly performance. The precious metal benefited from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, an escalation in the US-China trade war, a dovish Federal Reserve, and a weakening buck. What does July have in store for gold?

August gold futures fell $1.00, or 0.07%, to $1,411.00 per ounce at 14:02 GMT on Friday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold is poised for a weekly gain of around 0.6%. The big story for the metal commodity, however, is the huge gain it made in June, advancing close to 8%. Year-to-date, prices are up nearly 10%.

Silver, the sister commodity to gold, is rising to close out the trading week. July silver futures tacked on $0.01, or 0.07%, to $15.305 an ounce. The white metal headed the other direction this week, dipping 0.2%. For June, silver prices rose more than 5%, paring its YTD losses to just 1.6%.

Financial markets are paying close attention to the G20 summit this weekend. All the focus was on a sideline meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which has analysts speculating that this could signal that the two economic juggernauts will hit the pause button on the trade war. This happened late last year when Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day trade truce.

Negotiations between the world’s two largest economies have been non-existent since the White House raised tariffs on Chinese products, prompting Beijing to retaliate and pledge that it will never surrender.

The US dollar does not appear to be gaining any ground in the second quarter. The greenback shed 0.12% this week and plunged 1.7% in June. So far this year, the buck is flat. A weaker currency is for dollar-denominated commodities because it makes it cheaper for foreign investors to purchase.

Meanwhile, with the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the horizon, investors anticipate the US central bank will pull the trigger on a cut to interest rates. The latest numbers show the market is penciling in a 25-basis-point rate reduction. With the Fed turning dovish, the metals have gained because low rates decrease the opportunity cost and send traders into bullion.

US-Iran relations continued to diminish in June. The White House not only slapped new economic sanctions on Tehran, it nearly ordered a missile strike on the country. According to the regime, any diplomatic relations have been “canceled.” President Trump, however, thinks the two sides will eventually have a strong and friendly relationship. But investors are diving back into safe-haven assets to shield their capital from any potential fallout.

In other metal markets, July copper futures were unchanged at $2.71 per pound. July platinum futures surged $9.90, or 1.21%, to $827.40 per ounce. July palladium futures shed $9.90, or 0.64%, to $1,529.00 an ounce.

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