Commodity Blog

Gold futures are trading lower to kick off the trading week as the market is not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting this week. The yellow metal losses were capped by disappointing economic data, sending investors into the safe-haven asset on Monday.

June gold futures slipped $0.80, or 0.06%, to $1,343.70 per ounce at 17:19 GMT on Monday. Last week, gold edged up just under 1%. Despite starting off the year slow, the yellow metal has rebounded in the second quarter, particularly over the last month. Year-to-date gold is up 4.5%, but prices have advanced more than 5% in June.

Silver, the sister commodity to gold, is heading in the opposite direction. July silver futures rose $0.05, or 0.35%, to $14.85 per ounce. The white metal had a good week, jumping about 1%. So far on the year, silver is down 4.5%.

Equities have not been able to find any momentum in the last week. Since industrial production surged 0.4% and manufacturing output soared 0.7% in May, it pushed back expectations that the US central bank will pull the trigger on a rate cut. On Tuesday, housing numbers will come out and the market is forecasting an improvement in May from the previous month, which could further discourage the Eccles Building from cutting rates.

Analysts are pointing to the New York Fed’s Empire State Business conditions index as a possible reason for a rate cut in June. The index fell into negative territory for the first time since the beginning of 2017.

According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, traders are not anticipating the Fed to introduce a 25-basis-point cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. However, most of the market does expect it to happen in July at the earliest, with a growing segment predicting rates could crash to as low as 1.25%.

Should the central bank cut rates, then experts believe that it would boosts stocks a little longer, just as long as the economy is only in a rough patch.

Gold is generally sensitive to a rising-rate environment because it lifts the opportunity cost and sends traders into yield-bearing assets.

Investors will also keep an eye out for developments regarding the G20 summit later this month. President Donald Trump will likely sit down with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, to discuss their year-long trade dispute that has impacted global markets. Trump warned that if Xi does not attend the summit, then he could raise tariffs on even more Chinese goods.

In other metal markets, July copper futures tacked on $0.02, or 0.78%, to $2.65 per pound. July platinum futures plunged $10.50, or 1.30%, to $794.50 an ounce. July palladium futures tumbled $7.30, or 0.50%, to $1,454.20 an ounce.

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