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Bitcoin Teases $40,000: Has the Time Come to Sell Bitcoin?

January 15, 2021 at 11:04 by Andriy Moraru

When in early 2020 Bitcoin price hovered around $8,000, no one was expecting the price to surge the way it did by December 2020. The surge continued through January as Bitcoin broke the $40,000 mark for the first time ever. However, since the start of the week, Bitcoin plunged to $32,636. Causing CNN’s Paula La Monica to declare Bitcoin in the bear market.

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin rose to $40,066.32 before settling back to $39,521.46, up 14.25%.

With this new upsurge, losses incurred earlier in the week have almost been recovered. The earlier Bitcoin drop by nearly $10,000 from $40,000 caused agitations on Monday. Although, analysts and investors do not feel the same. The question: to sell or not is again brewing.

Price correction

Shivam Thakral, CEO at BuyUcoin, thinks that what we are seeing is merely price correction considering the sudden surge earlier this month:

When bitcoin price surged in December 2020, everyone had a fear of missing out on the lucrative returns bitcoin was giving, so there was a huge demand from the institutional and retail investors across the globe, this led to a massive surge in the price of bitcoin.

He added that the correction is healthy for the market:

The recent drop from an all-time high of US $ 42000 is more than expected and should be simply seen as a price correction. This is a healthy pull back which will offer long term price sustainability for bitcoin.

Another factor to consider is how the price is adjusting. In new data provided by crypto derivatives research firm Skew, the options market data shows that investors are betting on Bitcoin. According to the data, investors are assigning a 20% probability of the cryptocurrency rising above $50,000 by Jan. 29 (monthly expiry). With the monthly expiry 2 weeks away, the Cryptocurrency is 31% away from $50,000. This is an impressive feat to predict.

BTC/USD At-the-Money Options - Implied Volatility as of 2021-01-15

While it might look impossible, data from Deribit Insights suggests that a 31% rise is totally plausible. In the last two weeks of December 2020, Bitcoin price jumped 52% from $19,000 to $29,000.

Future of BTC/USD

With this correction in price, given the earlier price fall, should traders sell? On this issue, Vikram Rangala, CMO at ZebPay, told Live Mint:

The evidence is in the numbers: Despite the dips, if you held bitcoin longer than 3-and-a-half years during any period up to now, you had a 99.9% chance of making a profit. Past performance doesn’t predict the future, of course, but that kind of long-term trend is almost never seen in any asset class.

Other cryptocurrencies are following the flagship coin. Ether reclaimed the $1,200 mark, going  up 13%. According to market data by Messari. Polkadot has also gained — 21%, and litecoin is up 11% in the past 24 hours.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.

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