Commodity Blog

Bitcoin has endured a lot and vigorously persisted these past few days, with volume remaining relatively stable along the way. Regardless, we could end up staying in this sideways trading range if circumstances remain unchanged, or at least until the week long Chinese national holiday has concluded.

Bitcoin cash has continued descending since its $972 all-time high, a resistance level that could be cleared if more favorable conditions are created after the golden fork. The $719 monthly and $484.9 weekly highs should also be kept under watch. The price was hovering around $360 today, which is uncomfortably close to the $342.11 weekly low. Secondary supports are at the $300.01 monthly and $190.1 all-time lows as well, and are possible targets in case of a short-term breakdown. Moreover, bitcoin gold is impending release, so we have another fork on the horizon, scheduled for October 25.

Bitcoin has been performing rather well despite the expected schism and overwhelming community discord, and has risen above $4,350 today, which is in all fairness, not that far from the previous $4,979.9 all-time high.

Supports are abundant, with the $3,602.79 August monthly low especially standing out, in addition to the $4,137.96 weekly and $2,972.01 monthly lows. Secondary supports are at $4,377.91, $4,215.40, $4,137.21, $4,120.57, $4,019.65, $3,849.78, $3,512.30, and at $3,461.38.

The $4,453 weekly, $4,679.97 monthly, and $4,979.9 all-time highs are our primary resistance levels. Furthermore, intersecting trend lines additionally point toward the $4,453 weekly high as strong point of interest.

Fibonacci extensions derived from the current trading range have been predetermined at $4,800.05 (fib 1,236), $5,015.16 (fib 1.382), $5,189 (fib 1.5), $5,362.87 (fib 1.618), $5,925.69 (fib 2.0), $6,488.5 (fib 2.382), $6,836.21 (fib 2.618), and at $7,399.03 (fib 3.0). There is also an overlap of the $4,215.40 support and 0.618 fib level from the previous trading range (prior to the $4,979.9 all-time high). The same is true for the $4,137.21 support, the only difference being that it lines up with the 0.786 fib from the ensuing trading range, not the previous one. Strangely enough, there are no more noticeable or relevant overlying conformities to this avail.

Bollinger bands have stabilized on the daily, and price is creeping up closer toward the upper band, a push above the band should be taken as a short-term bullish signal. The 4-hour has a somewhat constant gap as well, although it appears to be contracting with time, this may be a short squeeze, so if the bands meteorically expand, increased volatility can be expected. The hourly is paralleling this sentiment; there is not that much divergence when comparing both charts.

Yesterday’s bullish crossover of the 30-day MA ahead of the 180-day MA, should have been taken as a near-term bullish signal. Depending on how forthcoming events play out, a second crossover of the 30-day MA, be it bullish or of bearish nature, could push us out of the existing trading range. The 365-day MA has persisted, and the abiding upward trend does not show signs of slowing down any time soon.

The VWMA is staggering slightly below the 30-day MA and 180-day MA for now. Even so, the interval between the 180-day MA and VWMA has continued to widen. The EMA towers over them all though, and has only cycled below and above the 30-day MA in the past 24 hours.

The RSI has found equilibrium, and is neither exhibiting overbought nor oversold conditions. The %R Williams indicator is on similar footing as well, no definite direction for the time being. OBV is yet to collapse, but this might change soon due to volume dropping on the hourly. The MACD has drastically oscillated above and below the signal line, with 4 bearish (marked in red) and 3 bullish (marked in green) crossovers transpiring in just the last 48 hours.

Bitcoin has been on the run since September 15, which was when the ongoing $2,972.01 monthly low was achieved (GMT 11:00). The last week was chiefly characterized by sideways trading, entirely between the $4,019.65 support and $4,453 weekly high. A breach of this high appears to be likely, but it may be postponed, in case conditions form for another reversal.

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