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Bitcoin Starting to Lead Forex Markets

February 16, 2021 at 14:05 by Mark Stevenson

Bitcoin has matured as a macro asset and seems to be affecting the foreign exchange (Forex) market.

“The US dollar sought to recover from the fall affected by the drop in non-farm payrolls, but it was flat again as Bitcoin hit a record high,” Reuters reported earlier last week.

In addition, the article said the rise in Bitcoin prices driven by Tesla’s Bitcoin investment boosted the euro‘s rise against the dollar on February 5 as non-farm payroll growth fell short of market expectations.

The rise of Bitcoin and the euro

Looking at the price movements of the two markets in detail, the movement of the currency pair EUR/USD (Euro/US dollar), which has the largest trading volume in the Forex market, followed BTC price movement after the news of Tesla’s Bitcoin investment was announced.

EUR/USD and Bitcoin Trends, Source: TradingView

The rise from the euro/US dollar broke out of a descending channel at 14:00 UTC on Monday, February 8 (left figure above). indicating a continuous rise from the previous day from 1.1990 to 1.2040, which was fueled by the dismal US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data.

Notably, the euro’s rise against the dollar came about an hour after Tesla’s Bitcoin investment news pushed Bitcoin to a record high of over $42,000. Tesla has announced a $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin, confirming the appeal of Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Impact on the Forex market

While it seems that Forex traders sold the dollars and raised the EUR/USD higher, the dollar was hit by the rise in the price of  Bitcoin.

Notably, macro factors such as delayed vaccination of the new coronavirus in the euro area and delayed economic recovery have caused the euro to fall.

However, Bitcoin and the euro have been mostly bought so far. Bitcoin hit a record high of $50,000 on February 16, with the EUR/USD pair currently above 1.2100.

It may be too early to call Bitcoin a key indicator of the Forex market, but analysts are confident that Bitcoin is heading in that direction.

“We think we may be heading in that direction, but Bitcoin needs to mature further to that point,” said Joel Kruger of LMAX Digital.

The crypto asset community sees Bitcoin as a better way to store and exchange value than fiat currencies such as the US dollar. That’s because Bitcoin’s supply is halved every four years, in sharp contrast to the inflationary monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the central banks of other major countries.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.

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