Commodity Blog

Bitcoin has finally broken above $8,000, and the rather expedient run-up took less than 3 days to complete once it started up from the $7,431.12 November 18 daily low. However the advance was temporarily halted with a a short reversal today, that brought us back down to the $7,771.59 daily low. The price has recovered since then, but there appears to be some resistance slowing down prior momentum. Hourly volume has been slowly increasing in the meantime, and popular opinion seems to point toward a $10,000 appraisement in the coming weeks, in anticipation of the CME futures launch on December 10.

Needless to say, if we disregard social media and the official mainstream narrative, while focusing on the most prominent altcoins, then the expedient migrations of crypto capital are starting to become fairly obvious, especially on many of the larger exchanges. Bitcoin cash, ethereum, nxt, dash, litecoin, and ripple are generating the most noticeable daily volume on USD, USDT, and BTC trading pairs respectively. Even so and despite occasional altcoin flash pumps (which have started to become noticeably shorter in duration with every passing week), bitcoin has kept strong.

With supports abound, yesterday’s $8,087.99 daily high was first in line, and was the only support above the crucial psychological $8,000 price level, until it unfortunately shattered. The now remaining secondary supports are predetermined at $7,997.61, $7,886.40, $7,590.09, $7,570.17, $7,499.82, $7,353.51, $6,991.37, $6,956.42, $6,776.88, $6,314.14, $6,025.93, $5,872.75, $5,754.5, $5,645.18, $5,591.17, and at $5,407.07. Primary supports are more interesting though and stand out at $7,771.79, $7,429.58, $6,922.58, $5,591.17, and at the $5,366 monthly low.

Our primary resistance levels are the $8,226 former and $8,354.46 current all-time highs. We will need to use Fibonacci extensions in order to accurately chart out possible targets. These fib levels are calculated from the $5,366 monthly low and starting forming at $8,900.96 (fib 1.236), $9,318.52 (fib 1.382), $9,656 (fib 1.5), $9,993.48 (fib 1.86), $11,086 (fib 2.0), $12,178.52 (fib 2.382), $12,853.48 (fib 2.618), and at $13,946 (fib 3.0). All can serve as potential price objectives moving forward, irrelevant of how unlikely they might seem at this point in time. There is an overlap of the $5,872.75 support and 0.236 fib ($5,861.53) retracement, in addition to the $6,314.14 support which is in close proximity to the 0.382 fib ($6,337.31).

The 30-day MA is practically unstoppable, and apart from the bullish crossover of the 180-day MA over the 365-day MA (which took place almost 2 days beforehand), all three MAs are skyrocketing forward and also maintaining reasonable distances from one another. The EMA is on the other hand, behaving in tune with the prevailing but matching volume. At the same time, the VWMA is contrasting this momentum, and is doubtlessly soaring ever closer to the 30-day MA.

The daily Bollinger bands are expanding, signaling that higher volatility is incoming. This is not really that surprising, considering how much the bitcoin price has ballooned in the past few months. The 4-hour is favorable in retrospect; the gap between the upper and lower bands is still relatively stable in nature. Nonetheless, most of the price action is happening above the median line, with occasional breaches occurring even higher and ahead of the utmost bands. The hourly bands are a bit more constricted, but the disparity is less pronounced. This may be why price is so recklessley discharging outside of the indicator’s constraints.

RSI is inconclusive, and is neither exhibiting overbought nor oversold conditions. The %R Williams is leaning toward being oversold, while OBV is trending higher and is not showing any signs of momentarily slowing down. The MACD is see-sawing above and below the signal line, but the numerous crossovers, are proving to be very accurate predictors of approaching short-term price movement.

The drive to the $8,354.46 all-time high began almost a week ago, from the $6,466.88 weekly low (GMT 12:00). What followed was a one direction lead-in toward the $7,988 previous all-time high, which was touched briefly on November 17 (GMT 01:00), and almost again later during the same day at $7,985 (GMT 17:00). The ensuing 48 hours were chiefly characterized by sideways trading, until the next all time high was reached at $8,083.5 on November 19 (GMT 12:00). The second all-time high manifested at $8,266.99 on November 20 (GMT 17:00), and the newest all-time high was a day after that at $8,354.46 (GMT 15:00).

If you have any questions and comments on bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.