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Will EUR/USD Set New Yearly Low This Summer?

June 9, 2014 (Last updated on July 29, 2014) by

Normally, currency trading is not very active from June through August — lower liquidity results means that the prices are unable to go through some strong levels of support or resistance. But slow summer is not a rule, and sometimes hot months bring action to the FX market too. In my opinion, the summer of 2014 will be one of the active ones.

The chart screenshot below depicts the current situation on EUR/USD D1 chart. The yearly low that was set on February 3 is marked with the red horizontal line on 1.3477 level. Last Thursday’s low of 1.3502 is the closest EUR/USD has approached to the yearly low since February. It was achieved in reaction to the stimulus measures announced by the European Central Bank. The level is marked with the blue horizontal line. The golden vertical line marks September 1 for reference.

EUR/USD - Will we see a new low this summer?

From the technical analysis point of view, the currency pair is still in a long-term uptrend on the daily chart. The most recent lower low was set on June 5, and now the time has come for a new bullish wave and even a new higher high.

Fundamentally, the US dollar is in a much better position than the euro. The US unemployment rate is below the Fed’s threshold and there is a strong chance to see a rate hike by the end of the year. The euro’s situation is quite the opposite — the stimulus program looks like it is still in progress, while macroeconomic indicators are bad nearly everywhere except for Germany.

I personally, believe that EUR/USD will go below 1.3477 and will trade there at least until September despite the usual sluggishness of the summer Forex market. Of course, any major unexpected event can render such forecasting useless, so I will not take any real money trade based on my prediction. And what do you think about this?

Will EUR/USD set new 2014 low this summer?

  • Yes, it will break through 1.3477 and will stay below. (42%, 5 Votes)
  • No, it won't break below 1.3477 level. (33%, 4 Votes)
  • Yes, but it will return back above 1.3477 during the summer. (25%, 3 Votes)

Total Voters: 12

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This poll will be active until August 1.

Update 2014-07-29: Poll closed as EUR/USD has already broken below 1.3477 level.

If you wish to offer some detailed forecast on how EUR/USD will trade by during the summer of 2014, please feel free to submit it using the commentary form below.

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