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What Can We Learn from USD/JPY Upward Channel?

March 22, 2015 (Last updated on March 31, 2015) by

The US dollar demonstrated an impressive rally against the Japanese yen since August of 2014. The rally has stalled in December and the price has entered a sort of consolidation in a deformed triangle pattern followed by an ascending channel. The latter is currently presenting a valid trading opportunity for those who wish to bet against USD/JPY further gains. The validity of the pattern is additionally confirmed by the signs of a forming double top.

The chart below depicts the pattern in details. The yellow lines show the channel itself. The cyan line is the breakout entry level with some buffer zone. The green line is the target. Stop-loss is to be set at the breakout candle’s high level or the high of the previous candle if the breakout candle trades mostly outside the channel. Only bearish breakout will be used as a trading signal here because the channel is ascending. You can click on the image below to see the full-sized screenshot:

USD/JPY - Ascending Channel Pattern on Daily Chart as of 2015-03-22

The channel was detected using the Channel Pattern Detector indicator. The chart was built using the ChannelPattern script. You can download my MetaTrader 4 chart template for this USD/JPY pattern. It can be traded using my free Chart Pattern Helper EA.

Update 2015-03-24 17:26 GMT: The bearish breakout has already occurred. Short position entered at 119.28 about 3 hours ago. Stop-loss is set to 120.176; current take-profit is at 116.416, but it rise every day with the channel’s incline. Unfortunately, this breakout looks like a false spike as of now:

USD/JPY - Ascending Channel Pattern - Post-Entry Screenshot as of 2015-03-25

Update 2015-03-30 9:18 GMT: My broker (AGEA) had some glitches in the quote feed during the late night trading and decided to close my position at its stop-loss level (120.176) even though there was no such price at that moment (2:55 GMT). I have contacted them to resolve the issue. Will report here on the progress of it.

Update 2015-03-31: The broker has restored my trade, but unfortunately, it has run into stop-loss at about 18:40 GMT yesterday:

USD/JPY - Ascending Channel Pattern - Post-Exit Screenshot as of 2015-03-31

If you have any questions or comments regarding this ascending channel on USD/JPY chart, please feel free to submit them via the form below.

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