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US & European Fundamentals Battle for Control of EUR/USD

November 27, 2013 by

EUR/USD was rising today as two of the biggest German political parties were able to form a coalition government and the German consumer confidence improved. (Event A on the chart.) Yet good macroeconomic data from the United States was able to erase gains of the currency pair almost completely.

Initial jobless claims fell from 326k to 316k last week instead of rising to 331k as was predicted by analysts. (Event B on the chart.)

Durable goods orders dropped by 2.0% in October. It was a worse reading than expected decrease by 1.5% and far worse than September rise by 3.8%. (Event B on the chart.)

Chicago PMI was at 63.0 in November. The index was below the October’s 31-month high of 65.9, but above the median forecast of 60.6. (Event C on the chart.)

Michigan Sentiment Index rose from 73.2 in October to 75.1 in November according to the revised estimate. (Event D on the chart.) It was above both the preliminary reading of 72.0 and economists’ expectations of 73.1. The report said:

Consumers’ overall assessment of economic prospects is not bad and not good. Economic stagnation is like purgatory, it is neither heaven nor hell.

US leading indicators rose 0.2% in October, outpacing the predicted increase of 0.1%. The September change was revised from 0.7% up to 0.9%. (Event D on the chart.)

Crude oil inventories increased by 3.0 million barrels last week (while the rate of growth was expected to stay near the previous week’s 0.4 billion) and are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of the average range. (Event E on the chart.)

EUR/USD for 2013-11-27

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