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Role of Luck in Forex Trading — Forex Poll

October 25, 2010 (Last updated on September 12, 2016) by

The markets (and Forex market in particular) are affected by three major categories:

  • Fundamental factors — supply and demand, interest rates and macroeconomic indicators;
  • Technical factors — supports and resistances, trends, chart patterns and waves;
  • Emotional factors — risk aversion, round number attractors, subconscious biases.

Despite this, the resulting market behavior is quite random and there are no surefire methods to predict this behavior. Trading isn’t an exact science and as the result, trading is strongly affected by luck or probabilities. Even the most unskillful Forex traders may get too lucky and win for some time, while even the most sophisticated traders may get bad at probabilities and lose everything. Personally, I believe that luck plays a very big role in my Forex trading results. And how about you?

What's the role of luck in your Forex trading?

View Results

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If you have some questions or comments regarding the role of luck in the results of your Forex trading, please, feel free to reply using the form below.

5 Responses to “Role of Luck in Forex Trading — Forex Poll”

  1. walter

    If thats what you think about your trading strategy results, then I feel sorry for you and to be honest you dont belong in Forex market.


    petesa Reply:

    With only a 5 -10 % success rate its gambling, there are very clever people in this world and by your remarks your not one of them. These exceptionally clever people should be taking millions out of the market, but like all gambling the bookmaker is always the favourite.


  2. Res

    Every thing in life is a gamble, crossing the road is a gamble, setting up a business is gamble, getting married is a gamble,….. But, for a rational intelligent person the question is how can I stack the odds in my favour, to be safe and successful, ie, look around when stepping on to the road, doing a bit of market research and finding a niche in the market when setting up a business, etc… In Trading is just the same, if you can read the charts, and are aware of the fundamentals and basically done your homework, you have stacked the odds in your favour, and the rest of course is Luck like every thing else. There are no guaranteed businesses, there are no safe roads, and there is no secure marriages, we all take a risk, but how calculated the risk is, that’s up to us.


    admin Reply:

    Your point is understandable. My point was that it could be so that the successful Forex traders are successful not because they managed to stack the odds in their favor, but just because they got lucky – out of thousands of other traders. And this luck won’t necessarily continue to follow them.


  3. Res

    Thank you for your comment.
    Here, I tried to put it as simple as possible, with those examples. But, the fact is Luck need Opportunity and Opportunity requires Recognition, on their owen they are useless, or better still they are wasted. We are getting very deep here, But what I am saying is that Opportunity alone is not enough. One must be able to Recognise it, and be in a position to take advantage of it. The Recognition is the training and experience, and the Taking advantage is your confidence and discipline. Which of course is “You got to be in it, to Win it” scenario….


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