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Positive Data Backs Up Case for Smaller Stimulus, EUR/USD Drops

June 25, 2013 by

EUR/USD dropped today following yesterday’s advance (the first gain after three sessions of losses) as all reports from the United States were good. Positive data supports the view that the Federal Reserve can reduce its monetary stimulus this year without hurting economic growth. Traders wait for tomorrow’s GDP report that may have a significant impact on the central bank’s future decisions.

Durable goods orders grew 3.6% in May. The actual increase was above the forecast rise by 3.0% and a little higher than the April’s change of 3.5% (revised up from 3.3%). (Event A on the chart.)

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 12.1% in April from a year ago, beating the forecast of 10.6%. The change wast 10.9% in March. (Event B on the chart.)

Richmond Fed manufacturing index jumped from -2 in May to 8 in June. Such reading was far better than the predicted figure of 0. (Event C on the chart.)

Consumer confidence improved to 81.4 in June from 74.3 in May. Market analysts have predicted much smaller increase to 75.2 (Event C on the chart.)

New home sales were at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476k in May, increasing from the April’s rate of 466k (a positive revision from 454k) instead of falling to 462k as was expected by market participants. (Event C on the chart.)

EUR/USD for 2013-06-25

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